The increasing number of vessels navigating through the Strait, hazardous cargo transportation, complex navigational conditions and extreme weather conditions pose serious environmental and safety hazards for the Istanbul Strait and the surrounding residential areas, which are of high strategic, historical and economical importance for Turkey. This study aims to investigate the impact of extreme weather conditions, vessel arrival processes and prioritization policies on the maritime transit traffic in the Istanbul Strait, through the deployment of an integrated simulation model, which provides a practical environment to analyze the effects of a comprehensive set of environmental and meteorological conditions, type and frequency of transit traffic demand, availability of support services and decision/policy rules applied by the Turkish StraitsVessel Traffic System (TSVTS), via scenario analysis. Vessel arrival rates under extreme weather conditions in the Istanbul Strait and the prioritization policy of TSVTS for direct/indirect passing vessels have been analyzed and integrated into an earlier version of the Istanbul Strait Maritime Traffic Simulation Model, which also covers the Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic System Rules and Regulations (TSMTR&R), the pilotage and tugboat services, traffic lanes and overtaking conditions, as well as a stochastic modeling of visibility and current conditions in the Istanbul Strait. Scenario analyses have been developed to analyze the effects and interrelations of vessel arrival rates, pilot and tugboat availabilities, vessel transit prioritization, pursuit distances between vessels, seasons and storm occurrences on various performance measures.Keywords: Simulation Modeling, Istanbul Strait, Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Services (TSVTS), Vessel Prioritization Policies, Extreme Weather Conditions.

Boğazlardan seyreden gemilerin sayısındaki artis, tehlikeli kargo tasimaciligi, zorlu seyir sartlan ve kotii hava kosullan, Tiirkiye icin yiiksek ekonomik, tarihi ve stratejik oneme sahip Istanbul ve Istanbul Bogazi icin onemli cevresel kirlenme ve giivenlik risk-lerini beraberinde getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, deniz trafigi icin biitiinlesik bir benzetim modeli kullanarak olumsuz hava kosullarmm, gemi gelisleri ve oncelik tanima poli-tikalannin Istanbul Bogazi deniz trafigi uzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi ve gelistirilen benzetim modeli ile cevresel ve meteorolojik sartlarm, gecis talebi tip ve sikhginin, destek hizmet imkanlarmm ve Tiirkiye Bogazlan Gemi Trafik Sistemi (TSVTS) karar/ politika kurallarmm icinde yer aldigi genis bir kapsamm sistem uzerindeki etkilerini incelemek icin senaryo analizi gerceklestirmeyi amaclamaktadir. Çalısma kapsammdaolumsuz hava kosullarmm gemi gelislerine etkisi ile TSVTS'nin ugrakh ve ugraksiz gemilere yonelik oncelik tanima politikalan analiz edilerek Istanbul Bogazi Deniz Trafigi Benzetim Modeli'nin onceki versiyonuna entegre edilmistir. Istanbul Bogazi Deniz Trafigi Benzetim Modeli, TSVTS trafik kurallan ve diizenlemelerini, gemi gelisleri ve ozelliklerini, kilavuz kaptan ve romorkor hizmetlerini, trafik seritleri ve sollama kural-lanni, Istanbul Bogazi'ndaki goriis mesafesi ve akmti sartlarmm rassal modellemesini de icermektedir. Girdi faktorler olarak belirlenen gemi gelis sikhginin, kaptan ve romorkor sayisimn, oncelik politikalarmm, mevsimsel degisimlerin, gemiler arasi takip mesafesinin ve firtma olusumlarmm, belirlenen cesitli basanm olciileri iizerindeki etki-lerini incelemek icin senaryo analizleri tasarlanmistir.ANAHTAR KELIMELER: Benzetim modelleme, Istanbul Bogazi, Tiirkiye Bogazlan Gemi Trafik Sistemi (TSVTS), Gemi Gecis Oncelik Politikalan, Kotii Hava Kosullan.