Why Are Food Prices Rising? An Ardl Model Analysis

İsmet Demirağ; Murat Sağır

Makale detayları

Why Are Food Prices Rising? An Ardl Model Analysis

Yazarlar:

İsmet Demirağ | Murat Sağır

Yayıncı:

Hacettepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.42 Issue 1, pp.33-46

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001303866

pISSN:

1301-8752

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Food prices are one of the important subheadings of the concept of inflation. This study aims to reveal the existence and size of a scientific relationship between agricultural producer prices and exchange rate variables, focusing on food prices. In the study, the Food Price Index series, representing food prices, and the Agricultural Producer Price Index series, representing producer prices of agricultural products, are included in the analysis. The data belonging the period 2010M01-2022M08 are used. The stationarity and Granger Causality of the series are examined, and then the possible relationships between the series are analysed using the ARDL cointegration method. As a result, a long-run relationship was found between the Food Price Index, Agricultural Producer Price Index, and Dollar exchange rate series. In this context, it is concluded that food prices are affected by the product prices offered by the producer to the market and the dollar exchange rate in the long run. Still, the exchange rate effect increases food prices more than agricultural producer prices. Therefore, the most effective way to combat food price increases is to implement a policy which helps Turkish lira gain value against the dollar exchange rate.

 Food prices are one of the important subheadings of the concept of inflation. This study aims to reveal the existence and size of a scientific relationship between agricultural producer prices and exchange rate variables, focusing on food prices. In the study, the Food Price Index series, representing food prices, and the Agricultural Producer Price Index series, representing producer prices of agricultural products, are included in the analysis. The data belonging the period 2010M01-2022M08 are used. The stationarity and Granger Causality of the series are examined, and then the possible relationships between the series are analysed using the ARDL cointegration method. As a result, a long-run relationship was found between the Food Price Index, Agricultural Producer Price Index, and Dollar exchange rate series. In this context, it is concluded that food prices are affected by the product prices offered by the producer to the market and the dollar exchange rate in the long run. Still, the exchange rate effect increases food prices more than agricultural producer prices. Therefore, the most effective way to combat food price increases is to implement a policy which helps Turkish lira gain value against the dollar exchange rate.

 Food prices are one of the important subheadings of the concept of inflation. This study aims to reveal the existence and size of a scientific relationship between agricultural producer prices and exchange rate variables, focusing on food prices. In the study, the Food Price Index series, representing food prices, and the Agricultural Producer Price Index series, representing producer prices of agricultural products, are included in the analysis. The data belonging the period 2010M01-2022M08 are used. The stationarity and Granger Causality of the series are examined, and then the possible relationships between the series are analysed using the ARDL cointegration method. As a result, a long-run relationship was found between the Food Price Index, Agricultural Producer Price Index, and Dollar exchange rate series. In this context, it is concluded that food prices are affected by the product prices offered by the producer to the market and the dollar exchange rate in the long run. Still, the exchange rate effect increases food prices more than agricultural producer prices. Therefore, the most effective way to combat food price increases is to implement a policy which helps Turkish lira gain value against the dollar exchange rate.

 Gıda fiyatları enflasyon kavramının önemli alt başlıklarından biridir. Bu araştırma ile gıda fiyatları odağında, Türkiyede tarım ürünleri üretici fiyatları ve döviz kuru değişkenleri arasında bilimsel bir ilişkinin varlığı ve boyutunun ortaya konması hedeflenmiştir. Çalışmada gıda fiyatlarını temsilen Gıda Fiyatları Endeksi, tarım ürünleri üretici fiyatlarını temsilen de Tarım Ürünleri Üretici Fiyat Endeksi serileri analize dahil edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin 2010 Ocak ayından 2022 Ağustos ayına kadar olan aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlıkları ve Granger Nedensellikleri incelenmiş ardından seriler arasında olası ilişkiler ARDL sınır testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Gıda Fiyatları Endeksi, Tarım Ürünleri Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ve Dolar kuru serileri arasında uzun dönem bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, Gıda fiyatlarının uzun dönemde tarım üretici fiyatlarından ve dolar kurundan etkilendiği ancak kur etkisinin tarım üretici fiyatlarından daha fazla gıda fiyatlarını artırdığı bulunmuştur. Dolayısı ile gıda fiyatlardaki artışlarla mücadelede en etkin yol dolar karşısında Türk lirasının değer kazanması için uygulanacak ekonomi politikası olacaktır.

Makale detayları

Why Are Food Prices Rising? An Ardl Model Analysis

Yazarlar:

İsmet Demirağ | Murat Sağır

Yayıncı:

Hacettepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.42 Issue 1, pp.33-46

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001303866

pISSN:

1301-8752

Exchange Rate

Food Prices

Agricultural Producer Prices

ARDLDöviz Kuru

Gıda Fiyatları

Tarım Ürünleri Üretici Fiyatları

ARDL

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: İsmet Demirağ | Murat Sağır

Yayıncı: Hacettepe University

Ana Başlıklar: Enflasyon

Dergi: Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.42 Issue 1, pp.33-46

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001303866

pISSN: 1301-8752

Sayı

Yazarlar:

İsmet Demirağ | Murat Sağır

Yayıncı:

Hacettepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.42 Issue 1, pp.33-46

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001303866

pISSN:

1301-8752