Are Economic Policies Effective on Real Income in Turkey? The Findings of Causality and Cointegration for the 2006-2022 Period

Çağatay Tunçsiper; Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

Makale detayları

Are Economic Policies Effective on Real Income in Turkey? The Findings of Causality and Cointegration for the 2006-2022 Period

Yazarlar:

Çağatay Tunçsiper | Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 48, pp.334-352

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286090

pISSN:

1304-5318

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on real domestic product real GDP in Turkey in the period of 2006:Q1-2022:Q4 were investigated using Granger causality analysis, Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction analysis ECM. The study covers open inflation targeting period since 2006 in Turkey and 2008 global economic crisis period and the Covid-19 Pandemic period. In this study, examines the effects of public revenues on real output as well as public expenditures as an indicator of fiscal policy, and study results tests the views of Keynesian and Monetary approaches on efficiency for Turkey. According to the Granger causality analysis, there is a one-way relationship from public revenues to real GDP. According to the Johansen Cointegration analysis, while a 1 increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 1.12 in the long run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.97. According to the ECM analysis, the model error decreases by -0.39 in each quarter, and the model stabilizes in the long run. In the short run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.18, while an increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 0.24. The results of the study support the Keynesian and Monetary approaches under the constraints of the relevant period and application methods. On the other hand, fiscal policy is relatively more effective on output. In the light of these results, it is thought that especially tax reductions and expansionary monetary policies can yield successful results in increasing real output in Turkey, and therefore an increase in employment may occur depending on these policies.

 In this study, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on real domestic product real GDP in Turkey in the period of 2006:Q1-2022:Q4 were investigated using Granger causality analysis, Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction analysis ECM. The study covers open inflation targeting period since 2006 in Turkey and 2008 global economic crisis period and the Covid-19 Pandemic period. In this study, examines the effects of public revenues on real output as well as public expenditures as an indicator of fiscal policy, and study results tests the views of Keynesian and Monetary approaches on efficiency for Turkey. According to the Granger causality analysis, there is a one-way relationship from public revenues to real GDP. According to the Johansen Cointegration analysis, while a 1 increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 1.12 in the long run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.97. According to the ECM analysis, the model error decreases by -0.39 in each quarter, and the model stabilizes in the long run. In the short run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.18, while an increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 0.24. The results of the study support the Keynesian and Monetary approaches under the constraints of the relevant period and application methods. On the other hand, fiscal policy is relatively more effective on output. In the light of these results, it is thought that especially tax reductions and expansionary monetary policies can yield successful results in increasing real output in Turkey, and therefore an increase in employment may occur depending on these policies.

 In this study, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on real domestic product real GDP in Turkey in the period of 2006:Q1-2022:Q4 were investigated using Granger causality analysis, Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction analysis ECM. The study covers open inflation targeting period since 2006 in Turkey and 2008 global economic crisis period and the Covid-19 Pandemic period. In this study, examines the effects of public revenues on real output as well as public expenditures as an indicator of fiscal policy, and study results tests the views of Keynesian and Monetary approaches on efficiency for Turkey. According to the Granger causality analysis, there is a one-way relationship from public revenues to real GDP. According to the Johansen Cointegration analysis, while a 1 increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 1.12 in the long run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.97. According to the ECM analysis, the model error decreases by -0.39 in each quarter, and the model stabilizes in the long run. In the short run, a 1 increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.18, while an increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 0.24. The results of the study support the Keynesian and Monetary approaches under the constraints of the relevant period and application methods. On the other hand, fiscal policy is relatively more effective on output. In the light of these results, it is thought that especially tax reductions and expansionary monetary policies can yield successful results in increasing real output in Turkey, and therefore an increase in employment may occur depending on these policies.

 Çalışmada Türkiyede 2006:Ç1-2022:Ç4 döneminde para ve maliye politikalarının reel yurtiçi hasılaya reel GSYH etkileri Granger nedensellik, Johansen eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme analizleri ECM kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, 2006dan beri uygulanan açık enflasyon hedeflemesi dönemini, 2008 yılı küresel ekonomik kriz dönemini ve Covid-19 Pandemi dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada, maliye politikası göstergesi olarak kamu harcamaları yanında kamu gelirlerinin reel hasılaya etkileri de incelenmekte, çalışma sonuçları Keynesyen ve Parasalcı yaklaşımların etkinlik konusundaki görüşlerini Türkiye için test etmektedir. Çalışma bulgularından Granger Nedensellik analizine göre kamu gelirlerinden reel GSYHya doğru tek yönlü ilişki vardır. Johansen Eşbütünleşme analizine göre uzun dönemde kamu gelirlerindeki 1 artış reel GSYHyı 1,21 azaltırken, para arzındaki 1 artış reel GSYHyı 0,97 artırmaktadır. ECM analizine göre her bir çeyrek dönemde model hatası 0,39 azalmakta, model uzun dönemde dengeye gelmektedir. Kısa dönemde para arzındaki 1 artış reel GSYHyı 0,18 artırırken, kamu gelirlerindeki artış reel GSYHyı 0.24 azaltmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları ilgili dönem ve uygulama yöntemleri kısıtları altında Keynesyen ve Parasalcı yaklaşımları destekler niteliktedir. Bununla birlikte maliye politikası nispi olarak hasıla üzerinde daha etkilidir. Bu sonuçlar ışığında, Türkiyede reel hasılayı artırmada özellikle vergi indirimleri ve genişlemeci para politikalarının başarılı sonuçlar verebileceği, dolayısıyla bu politikalara bağlı olarak istihdamda artış yaşanabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Makale detayları

Are Economic Policies Effective on Real Income in Turkey? The Findings of Causality and Cointegration for the 2006-2022 Period

Yazarlar:

Çağatay Tunçsiper | Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 48, pp.334-352

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286090

pISSN:

1304-5318

Money supply

Public Revenues

Public Expenditures

Policy Efficiency.

Para arzı

Kamu Gelirleri

Kamu Giderleri

Politika Etkinliği

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Çağatay Tunçsiper | Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

Yayıncı: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Dergi: Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 48, pp.334-352

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001286090

pISSN: 1304-5318

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Çağatay Tunçsiper | Dilek Sürekçi Yamaçlı

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.21 Issue 48, pp.334-352

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286090

pISSN:

1304-5318