Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Economy: An Empirical Analysis on the Effectiveness of the Import Input Costs Channel

Musa Bayır

Makale detayları

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Economy: An Empirical Analysis on the Effectiveness of the Import Input Costs Channel

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır

Yayıncı:

Bartin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.18-40

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290751

pISSN:

1309-954X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Inflation has attracted attention as a long-standing problem in the Turkish economy. On the other hand, the Turkish lira steadily depreciates due to the chronic foreign trade deficit in the economy. The high interest-low exchange rate policy adopted after the 2001 economic crisis enabled the Turkish lira to appreciate for many years. However, both the abandonment of this policy and the decrease in foreign capital inflows along with other global economic developments caused the Turkish lira to depreciate. This process was followed by increases in inflation rates. There have been significant debates about the reasons for the price increases in the Turkish economy. When the import composition of the Turkish economy is examined, it can be said that there are approximately 90 of production goods. The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the imported input costs channel in the effect of exchange rate on inflation. The econometric analysis period includes the period 2003-2022 and the VAR methodology is used. The econometric results show that the imported input costs channel is effective in exchange rate pass-through. The exchange rate fluctuations affect imported input costs, imported input costs affect producer prices, and producer prices affect consumer prices in the same direction and statistically significantly.

 Inflation has attracted attention as a long-standing problem in the Turkish economy. On the other hand, the Turkish lira steadily depreciates due to the chronic foreign trade deficit in the economy. The high interest-low exchange rate policy adopted after the 2001 economic crisis enabled the Turkish lira to appreciate for many years. However, both the abandonment of this policy and the decrease in foreign capital inflows along with other global economic developments caused the Turkish lira to depreciate. This process was followed by increases in inflation rates. There have been significant debates about the reasons for the price increases in the Turkish economy. When the import composition of the Turkish economy is examined, it can be said that there are approximately 90 of production goods. The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the imported input costs channel in the effect of exchange rate on inflation. The econometric analysis period includes the period 2003-2022 and the VAR methodology is used. The econometric results show that the imported input costs channel is effective in exchange rate pass-through. The exchange rate fluctuations affect imported input costs, imported input costs affect producer prices, and producer prices affect consumer prices in the same direction and statistically significantly.

 Inflation has attracted attention as a long-standing problem in the Turkish economy. On the other hand, the Turkish lira steadily depreciates due to the chronic foreign trade deficit in the economy. The high interest-low exchange rate policy adopted after the 2001 economic crisis enabled the Turkish lira to appreciate for many years. However, both the abandonment of this policy and the decrease in foreign capital inflows along with other global economic developments caused the Turkish lira to depreciate. This process was followed by increases in inflation rates. There have been significant debates about the reasons for the price increases in the Turkish economy. When the import composition of the Turkish economy is examined, it can be said that there are approximately 90 of production goods. The aim of the study is to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the imported input costs channel in the effect of exchange rate on inflation. The econometric analysis period includes the period 2003-2022 and the VAR methodology is used. The econometric results show that the imported input costs channel is effective in exchange rate pass-through. The exchange rate fluctuations affect imported input costs, imported input costs affect producer prices, and producer prices affect consumer prices in the same direction and statistically significantly.

 Enflasyon, Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun yıllardır devam eden bir sorun olarak dikkat çekmektedir. Diğer taraftan, Türk lirası ekonomide kronik hale gelmiş dış ticaret açığı nedeniyle istikrarlı bir şekilde değer kaybetmektedir. 2001 ekonomik krizinden sonra benimsenen yüksek faiz-düşük kur politikası Türk lirasının uzun yıllar değerini korumasını sağlamıştır. Ancak gerek bu politikadan vazgeçilmesi gerekse diğer küresel gelişmelerle birlikte yabancı sermaye girişlerinin azalması, Türk lirasının değer kaybına yol açmıştır. Bu süreci enflasyon oranlarında yaşanan artışlar takip etmiştir. Gelinen noktada, Türkiye ekonomisindeki fiyat artışlarının nedenleri konusunda önemli tartışmalar ortaya çıkmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisinin ithalat kompozisyonu incelendiğinde, yaklaşık 90 oranında üretim malının bulunduğu söylenebilir. Çalışmanın amacı döviz kurunun enflasyon üzerindeki etkisinde ithal girdi maliyetleri kanalının etkinliğini ampirik olarak araştırmaktır. Ekonometrik analiz dönemi 2003-2022 dönemini kapsamaktadır ve VAR yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. Elde edilen ekonometrik sonuçlar, döviz kuru geçişkenliğinde ithal girdi maliyetleri kanalının etkin olduğunu göstermiştir. Döviz kurunda yaşanan değişimler ithal girdi maliyetlerini, ithal girdi maliyetleri üretici fiyatlarını ve üretici fiyatları da tüketici fiyatlarını aynı yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde etkilemektedir.

Makale detayları

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Economy: An Empirical Analysis on the Effectiveness of the Import Input Costs Channel

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır

Yayıncı:

Bartin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.18-40

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290751

pISSN:

1309-954X

Exchange Rate

Inflation

Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Imported Input Costs

VARDöviz Kuru

Enflasyon

Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği

İthal Girdi Maliyetleri

VAR.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Musa Bayır

Yayıncı: Bartin University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi

Dergi: Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.18-40

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001290751

pISSN: 1309-954X

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Musa Bayır

Yayıncı:

Bartin University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 27, pp.18-40

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290751

pISSN:

1309-954X