Evaluation of the Impact of Women’s Employment on GDP Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression

Aslı Okay Toprak

Makale detayları

Evaluation of the Impact of Women’s Employment on GDP Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression

Yazarlar:

Aslı Okay Toprak

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | İstihdam

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 1, pp.170-186

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001342023

pISSN:

2757-7449

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study analyzes the impact of womens employment rates on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece, which have different trends in womens employment in relation to their social structures compared with Western European countries. Although many structural reforms have been implemented in recent years to increase womens employment, the countries considered in this study have lower employment rates, gender inequalities, and interruptions in womens career processes due to gender roles more frequently than in Western European countries. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, and Poland are among the former Eastern Bloc countries. For this reason, there is an employment structure that comes from the past and differs from Western European experience. The full employment policy and high public expenditures experienced by the former Eastern bloc countries in the past were replaced by efforts to adapt to the free-market economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although Greece has no Eastern Bloc experience, it falls behind Western Europe in terms of chronic problems like unemployment and gender inequalities. Although Greece does not have an Eastern bloc experience, it lags Western Europe in terms of chronic problems, such as high unemployment and gender inequalities. This study aims to examine the relationship between womens employment and GDP from a regional perspective and to suggest policies that can be implemented in this direction. With the help of GDP, female employment rate, urban population ratio, trade as a share of GDP, and final consumption expenditure data of the six countries for the period 1992-2022, estimates were made using the seemingly unrelated regression model SUR. The SUR used in this study uses the correlation between the error terms in various equations to produce more accurate forecasts. When error terms are correlated, SUR uses this information to produce more accurate parameter estimates. Therefore, SUR is effective for modelling many dependent variables that may be affected by different conditions. In other words, SUR enables more comprehensive testing of economic hypotheses with many interdependent variables. Thus, it is a useful tool for regional analysis. To use the SUR model, the time unit should be at least 30 periods, and the number of units considered should be less than 10. In this study, while the female employment rate was statistically insignificant for Poland, Romania, and Greece, the effect of the female employment rate on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, and Bulgaria was 0.13, 0.50, and 0.23, respectively. According to the general results of the SUR model, a 1 increase in female employment leads to an increase of approximately 0.16 in the GDP. In all the countries included in the study, final consumption expenditure was found to be the variable with the most intensive effect on GDP. This study is unique in that it addresses both the current period interval and econometric methodology used. With the help of the SUR model, both country-specific and holistic results of the six countries in general can be handled.

 This study analyzes the impact of womens employment rates on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece, which have different trends in womens employment in relation to their social structures compared with Western European countries. Although many structural reforms have been implemented in recent years to increase womens employment, the countries considered in this study have lower employment rates, gender inequalities, and interruptions in womens career processes due to gender roles more frequently than in Western European countries. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, and Poland are among the former Eastern Bloc countries. For this reason, there is an employment structure that comes from the past and differs from Western European experience. The full employment policy and high public expenditures experienced by the former Eastern bloc countries in the past were replaced by efforts to adapt to the free-market economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although Greece has no Eastern Bloc experience, it falls behind Western Europe in terms of chronic problems like unemployment and gender inequalities. Although Greece does not have an Eastern bloc experience, it lags Western Europe in terms of chronic problems, such as high unemployment and gender inequalities. This study aims to examine the relationship between womens employment and GDP from a regional perspective and to suggest policies that can be implemented in this direction. With the help of GDP, female employment rate, urban population ratio, trade as a share of GDP, and final consumption expenditure data of the six countries for the period 1992-2022, estimates were made using the seemingly unrelated regression model SUR. The SUR used in this study uses the correlation between the error terms in various equations to produce more accurate forecasts. When error terms are correlated, SUR uses this information to produce more accurate parameter estimates. Therefore, SUR is effective for modelling many dependent variables that may be affected by different conditions. In other words, SUR enables more comprehensive testing of economic hypotheses with many interdependent variables. Thus, it is a useful tool for regional analysis. To use the SUR model, the time unit should be at least 30 periods, and the number of units considered should be less than 10. In this study, while the female employment rate was statistically insignificant for Poland, Romania, and Greece, the effect of the female employment rate on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, and Bulgaria was 0.13, 0.50, and 0.23, respectively. According to the general results of the SUR model, a 1 increase in female employment leads to an increase of approximately 0.16 in the GDP. In all the countries included in the study, final consumption expenditure was found to be the variable with the most intensive effect on GDP. This study is unique in that it addresses both the current period interval and econometric methodology used. With the help of the SUR model, both country-specific and holistic results of the six countries in general can be handled.

 This study analyzes the impact of womens employment rates on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece, which have different trends in womens employment in relation to their social structures compared with Western European countries. Although many structural reforms have been implemented in recent years to increase womens employment, the countries considered in this study have lower employment rates, gender inequalities, and interruptions in womens career processes due to gender roles more frequently than in Western European countries. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, and Poland are among the former Eastern Bloc countries. For this reason, there is an employment structure that comes from the past and differs from Western European experience. The full employment policy and high public expenditures experienced by the former Eastern bloc countries in the past were replaced by efforts to adapt to the free-market economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although Greece has no Eastern Bloc experience, it falls behind Western Europe in terms of chronic problems like unemployment and gender inequalities. Although Greece does not have an Eastern bloc experience, it lags Western Europe in terms of chronic problems, such as high unemployment and gender inequalities. This study aims to examine the relationship between womens employment and GDP from a regional perspective and to suggest policies that can be implemented in this direction. With the help of GDP, female employment rate, urban population ratio, trade as a share of GDP, and final consumption expenditure data of the six countries for the period 1992-2022, estimates were made using the seemingly unrelated regression model SUR. The SUR used in this study uses the correlation between the error terms in various equations to produce more accurate forecasts. When error terms are correlated, SUR uses this information to produce more accurate parameter estimates. Therefore, SUR is effective for modelling many dependent variables that may be affected by different conditions. In other words, SUR enables more comprehensive testing of economic hypotheses with many interdependent variables. Thus, it is a useful tool for regional analysis. To use the SUR model, the time unit should be at least 30 periods, and the number of units considered should be less than 10. In this study, while the female employment rate was statistically insignificant for Poland, Romania, and Greece, the effect of the female employment rate on GDP in Hungary, Czechia, and Bulgaria was 0.13, 0.50, and 0.23, respectively. According to the general results of the SUR model, a 1 increase in female employment leads to an increase of approximately 0.16 in the GDP. In all the countries included in the study, final consumption expenditure was found to be the variable with the most intensive effect on GDP. This study is unique in that it addresses both the current period interval and econometric methodology used. With the help of the SUR model, both country-specific and holistic results of the six countries in general can be handled.

 Bu çalışma, sosyal ve toplumsal yapıları itibariyle kadın istihdamı konusunda Batı Avrupa ülkelerinden farklı eğilimlere sahip olan Macaristan, Çekya, Polonya, Romanya, Bulgaristan ve Yunanistanda kadın istihdam oranlarının GSYH üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. Her ne kadar son yıllarda kadın istihdamını artırmaya yönelik birçok yapısal reform hayata geçirilmiş olsa da bu çalışmada ele alınan ülkelerde Batı Avrupa ülkelerine kıyasla daha düşük istihdam oranları, toplumsal cinsiyet eşitsizlikleri ve toplumsal cinsiyet rolleri nedeniyle kadınların kariyer süreçlerinde kesintilere daha sık rastlanmaktadır. Macaristan, Romanya, Bulgaristan, Çekya ve Polonya eski Doğu Bloku ülkeleri arasında yer almaktadır. Bu nedenle geçmişten gelen ve Batı Avrupa deneyiminden farklılaşan bir istihdam yapısı söz konusudur. Eski Doğu Bloğu ülkelerinin geçmişte yaşadığı tam istihdam politikası ve yüksek kamu harcamaları, Sovyetler Birliğinin dağılmasının ardından yerini serbest piyasa ekonomisine uyum sağlama çabalarına bırakmıştır. Yunanistanın bir Doğu bloğu deneyimi olmamasına rağmen, yüksek işsizlik ve cinsiyet eşitsizliği gibi kronik sorunlar açısından Batı Avrupanın gerisinde kalmaktadır. Yunanistanın bir Doğu Bloku deneyimi olmamasına rağmen, yüksek işsizlik ve toplumsal cinsiyet eşitsizliği gibi kronik sorunlar açısından Batı Avrupanın gerisinde kalmaktadır. Bu çalışma, kadın istihdamı ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişkiyi bölgesel bir perspektiften incelemeyi ve bu doğrultuda uygulanabilecek politikalar önermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Altı ülkenin 1992-2022 dönemine ait GSYH, kadın istihdam oranı, kentsel nüfus oranı, ticaretin GSYH içindeki payı ve nihai tüketim harcamaları verileri yardımıyla görünüşte ilişkisiz regresyon modeli SUR kullanılarak değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada kullanılan SUR tahmincisi, daha doğru tahminler üretmek için çeşitli denklemlerdeki hata terimleri arasındaki korelasyonu kullanmaktadır. Hata terimleri ilişkili olduğunda, SUR bu bilgiyi daha doğru parametre tahminleri üretmek için kullanır. Bu nedenle SUR, farklı koşullardan etkilenebilecek çok sayıda bağımlı değişkenin modellenmesinde etkilidir. Başka bir deyişle SUR, birbirine bağlı çok sayıda değişken içeren ekonomik hipotezlerin daha kapsamlı bir şekilde test edilmesini sağlar. Bu nedenle, bölgesel analiz için kullanışlı bir araçtır. SUR modelini kullanmak için zaman biriminin en az 30 dönem olması ve dikkate alınan birim sayısının 10dan az olması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Polonya, Romanya ve Yunanistan için kadın istihdam oranı istatistiksel olarak anlamsız çıkarken, Macaristan, Çekya ve Bulgaristanda kadın istihdam oranının GSYH üzerindeki etkisi sırasıyla 0,13, 0,50 ve 0,23 olmuştur. SUR modelinin genel sonuçlarına göre, kadın istihdamındaki 1lik bir artış GSYHde yaklaşık 0,16lık bir artışa yol açmaktadır. Çalışmaya dahil edilen tüm ülkelerde, nihai tüketim harcamaları GSYH üzerinde en yoğun etkiye sahip değişken olarak bulunmuştur. Bu çalışma hem cari dönem aralığını hem de kullanılan ekonometrik metodolojiyi ele alması bakımından özgündür. SUR modeli yardımıyla hem ülkeye özgü hem de altı ülkenin geneline ilişkin bütüncül sonuçlar ele alınabilmektedir.

Makale detayları

Evaluation of the Impact of Women’s Employment on GDP Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression

Yazarlar:

Aslı Okay Toprak

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | İstihdam

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 1, pp.170-186

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001342023

pISSN:

2757-7449

Economic Growth

Women Employment

Gender Inequality

Eastern European Economies

SUR Modelİktisadi Büyüme

Kadın İstihdamı

Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitsizliği

Doğu Avrupa Ekonomileri

SUR Model

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Aslı Okay Toprak

Yayıncı: Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar: Büyüme | İstihdam

Dergi: Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 1, pp.170-186

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001342023

pISSN: 2757-7449

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Aslı Okay Toprak

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | İstihdam

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.18 Issue 1, pp.170-186

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001342023

pISSN:

2757-7449