EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

Şaban Pusat

doi:https://doi.org/10.18186/journal-of-thermal-engineering.372218

Makale detayları

EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

Yazarlar:

Şaban Pusat

Yayıncı:

Yildiz Technical University

Dergi:

Journal of Thermal Engineering 2018 Vol.4 Issue 2, pp.1770-1779

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2017

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000506228

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

2148-7847

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18186/journal-of-thermal-engineering.372218

Özet:

 


Proper utilization of
renewable energy sources in electricity production is inevitable due to the
environmental concerns and global warming fight. Therefore, predictability of
renewable electricity is a very significant issue for a long time. Main aim of
this study, different from the literature, is to investigate the change of wind
speed prediction errors for different time horizons. Different prediction time
horizons (10, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes) were used, and the results were
compared through the error measures and the regression values. The mean squared
errors and the regression values vary between 0.819 and 5.570, and between
77.8% and 97.1%, respectively. The prediction error changes almost
logarithmically, and the rate of change decreases with the increasing time
horizon. A new analysis approach was proposed to see the change of the
prediction error with time horizon. The equation, y = 1.5413ln(x) - 2.7428, representing the change of
the mean squared error with time horizon was obtained.

.

Makale detayları

EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

Yazarlar: Şaban Pusat

Yayıncı: Yildiz Technical University

Dergi: Journal of Thermal Engineering 2018 Vol.4 Issue 2, pp.1770-1779

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2017

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2000506228

Sıklık: İki Aylık

eISSN: 2148-7847

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18186/journal-of-thermal-engineering.372218

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Şaban Pusat

Yayıncı:

Yildiz Technical University

Dergi:

Journal of Thermal Engineering 2018 Vol.4 Issue 2, pp.1770-1779

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2017

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2000506228

Sıklık:

İki Aylık

eISSN:

2148-7847

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18186/journal-of-thermal-engineering.372218