The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye

Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş

Makale detayları

The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

İzmir İktisat Dergisi Vol.40 Issue 1, pp.117-131

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001341446

pISSN:

1308-8505

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables credit growth, financial depth, economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.

 This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables credit growth, financial depth, economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.

 This article explores the effect of credit growth on the current account deficit in Türkiye. Although the effects of structural variables are generally analyzed in research on the current account deficit, the effect of financial variables is given less importance. For this reason, there are not enough studies in the literature addressing the effect of financial variables on the current account. The research will fill this gap in the literature. ARDL The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is established to empirically analyze the relationship between the current account deficit and financial variables.The current account is used as the dependent variable and financial variables credit growth, financial depth, economic growth, budget balance, real interest rate and real exchange rate are used as explanatory variables. 2006-2022 quarterly data is used in the analysis. The findings show that the increase in credit growth in Türkiye leads to a deterioration in the current account balance. Additionally, a negative relationship is detected between financial depth and the current account balance.

 Bu makale, Türkiyede kredi büyümesinin cari açık üzerindeki etkisini araştırılmaktadır. Cari açık üzerine yapılan araştırmalarda genellikle yapısal değişkenlerin etkileri analiz edilmesine rağmen finansal değişkenlerin etkisi daha az incelenmiştir. Bu araştırmanın literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurması beklenmektedir. Cari açık ve finansal değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak analiz etmek için ARDL The Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeli kurulmuş, bağımlı değişken olarak cari işlemler hesabı, açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak finansal değişkenler kredi büyümesi, finansal derinlik ekonomik büyüme, bütçe dengesi, reel faiz ve reel kur modele dahil edilmiştir. 2006-2022 çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılan analizde bulgular, Türkiyede kredi büyümesindeki artışın cari işlemler dengesinde bozulmaya yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, finansal derinlik ve cari işlemler dengesi arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmektedir.

Makale detayları

The Long-term Relationship between Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit: The Case of Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

İzmir İktisat Dergisi Vol.40 Issue 1, pp.117-131

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001341446

pISSN:

1308-8505

credit growth

financial depth

money supply

current account deficit

ARDLKredi büyümesi

finansal derinlik

para arzı

cari açık

ARDL

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş

Yayıncı: Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar: Para Politikası

Dergi: İzmir İktisat Dergisi Vol.40 Issue 1, pp.117-131

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001341446

pISSN: 1308-8505

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Şehnaz Bakır Yiğitbaş

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

İzmir İktisat Dergisi Vol.40 Issue 1, pp.117-131

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001341446

pISSN:

1308-8505