RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, THE OIL PRICE AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM OIL EXPORTING AND IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

Makale detayları

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, THE OIL PRICE AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM OIL EXPORTING AND IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

Yayıncı:

Trakya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finansal Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.27 Issue Ek, pp.159-182

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001348960

pISSN:

1305-7766

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study examines the relationships between the Geopolitical Risk Index, the oil price and the stock markets of the five largest oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Canada, Russia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates and oil importers China, the United States, India, South Korea and Japan. The analysis uses monthly data for the period between January 1985 and August 2023. Significant results were obtained in the study using the Toda Yamamoto TY causality test and the Fourier Toda Yamamoto FTY causality test. According to the results of both causality tests, there is unidirectional causality from the stock market to the oil price in oil-exporting countries, while generally no causality was found between financial markets and oil prices in oil-importing countries. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from the geopolitical risk index to the oil price in oil-exporting Canada and the US and oil-importing the US, South Korea and Japan countries, and that geopolitical risks provide predictive information for oil prices. In addition, these findings provide important information for investors in terms of diversification opportunities and strategic decisions.

 This study examines the relationships between the Geopolitical Risk Index, the oil price and the stock markets of the five largest oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Canada, Russia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates and oil importers China, the United States, India, South Korea and Japan. The analysis uses monthly data for the period between January 1985 and August 2023. Significant results were obtained in the study using the Toda Yamamoto TY causality test and the Fourier Toda Yamamoto FTY causality test. According to the results of both causality tests, there is unidirectional causality from the stock market to the oil price in oil-exporting countries, while generally no causality was found between financial markets and oil prices in oil-importing countries. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from the geopolitical risk index to the oil price in oil-exporting Canada and the US and oil-importing the US, South Korea and Japan countries, and that geopolitical risks provide predictive information for oil prices. In addition, these findings provide important information for investors in terms of diversification opportunities and strategic decisions.

 This study examines the relationships between the Geopolitical Risk Index, the oil price and the stock markets of the five largest oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Canada, Russia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates and oil importers China, the United States, India, South Korea and Japan. The analysis uses monthly data for the period between January 1985 and August 2023. Significant results were obtained in the study using the Toda Yamamoto TY causality test and the Fourier Toda Yamamoto FTY causality test. According to the results of both causality tests, there is unidirectional causality from the stock market to the oil price in oil-exporting countries, while generally no causality was found between financial markets and oil prices in oil-importing countries. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from the geopolitical risk index to the oil price in oil-exporting Canada and the US and oil-importing the US, South Korea and Japan countries, and that geopolitical risks provide predictive information for oil prices. In addition, these findings provide important information for investors in terms of diversification opportunities and strategic decisions.

 Bu çalışmada jeopolitik risk endeksi, petrol fiyatı ve en büyük beş petrol ihracatçısı Suudi Arabistan, Kanada, Rusya, Amerika ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve petrol ithalatçısı Çin, Amerika, Hindistan, Güney Kore ve Japonya ülkenin pay senedi piyasaları arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmektedir. Analiz için Ocak 1985-Ağustos 2023 arası dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılmaktadır. Toda Yamamoto TY nedensellik ve Fourier Toda Yamamoto FTY nedensellik testleri kullanıldığı çalışmada önemli sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Her iki nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgulara göre petrol ihraç eden ülkelerde pay senedi piyasasından petrol fiyatına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik varken, petrol ithal eden ülkelerde genel olarak finansal piyasalar ve petrol fiyatları arasında nedensellik bulunamamıştır. Bulgular, petrol ihracatçısı Kanada ve ABD ve petrol ithalatçısı ABD, Güney Kore ve Japonya ülkelerde jeopolitik risk endeksinden petrol fiyatına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu, dolayısıyla jeopolitik risklerin petrol fiyatları için öngörü bilgisi sunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bu bulgular yatırımcılar için çeşitlendirme fırsatları ve stratejik kararlar açısından da önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Makale detayları

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, THE OIL PRICE AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM OIL EXPORTING AND IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

Yayıncı:

Trakya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finansal Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.27 Issue Ek, pp.159-182

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001348960

pISSN:

1305-7766

Geopolitical Risk Index

Oil Price

Stock Market

CausalityJeopolitik Risk Endeksi

Petrol Fiyatı

Pay Senedi Piyasaları

Nedensellik

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

Yayıncı: Trakya University

Ana Başlıklar: Finansal Ekonomi

Dergi: Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.27 Issue Ek, pp.159-182

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001348960

pISSN: 1305-7766

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

Yayıncı:

Trakya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finansal Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.27 Issue Ek, pp.159-182

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001348960

pISSN:

1305-7766