The Performance of Medium-Term Budgeting in Türkiye: An Analysis of Budget Forecasts

Berat Kara

Makale detayları

The Performance of Medium-Term Budgeting in Türkiye: An Analysis of Budget Forecasts

Yazarlar:

Berat Kara

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası | Bütçe ve Mali Planlama | Kamu Maliyesi

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 4, pp.659-676

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001334225

pISSN:

1302-0064

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The accuracy of medium-term budgeting is crucial for sustainable financial management and strategic planning in both the public and private sectors. Realistic forecasts ensure the efficient allocation of resources, prevent unnecessary expenditures, and help maintain fiscal discipline. It is believed that, especially for developing countries, medium-term budgeting can establish long-term sustainable development. Motivated by this perspective, this study evaluates the success of medium-term budgeting in Türkiye based on medium-term forecasts of budget revenues and expenditures. Given that Türkiye adopted medium-term budgeting in 2005, the study analyzes two- and three-year budget forecasts for the period between 2009 and 2023. Initially, the accuracy of the forecasts was calculated, identifying which items had higher forecast errors and the direction of these errors. Subsequently, the Holden-Peel 1990 test was employed to determine whether there was any upward or downward bias in the forecasts. The results indicate that forecast errors for both revenues and expenditures were significantly high, revealing that medium-term budgeting was quite unsuccessful. However, there was negligible bias in the forecasts. Despite being prepared 16 times during the examined period, medium-term budgeting practices in Türkiye did not achieve the desired success. Keywords: Medium-Term Budgeting, Budget Forecasting, Türkiye, Holden-Peel Test JEL Codes: H61, H68, E61, E66.

 The accuracy of medium-term budgeting is crucial for sustainable financial management and strategic planning in both the public and private sectors. Realistic forecasts ensure the efficient allocation of resources, prevent unnecessary expenditures, and help maintain fiscal discipline. It is believed that, especially for developing countries, medium-term budgeting can establish long-term sustainable development. Motivated by this perspective, this study evaluates the success of medium-term budgeting in Türkiye based on medium-term forecasts of budget revenues and expenditures. Given that Türkiye adopted medium-term budgeting in 2005, the study analyzes two- and three-year budget forecasts for the period between 2009 and 2023. Initially, the accuracy of the forecasts was calculated, identifying which items had higher forecast errors and the direction of these errors. Subsequently, the Holden-Peel 1990 test was employed to determine whether there was any upward or downward bias in the forecasts. The results indicate that forecast errors for both revenues and expenditures were significantly high, revealing that medium-term budgeting was quite unsuccessful. However, there was negligible bias in the forecasts. Despite being prepared 16 times during the examined period, medium-term budgeting practices in Türkiye did not achieve the desired success. Keywords: Medium-Term Budgeting, Budget Forecasting, Türkiye, Holden-Peel Test JEL Codes: H61, H68, E61, E66.

 The accuracy of medium-term budgeting is crucial for sustainable financial management and strategic planning in both the public and private sectors. Realistic forecasts ensure the efficient allocation of resources, prevent unnecessary expenditures, and help maintain fiscal discipline. It is believed that, especially for developing countries, medium-term budgeting can establish long-term sustainable development. Motivated by this perspective, this study evaluates the success of medium-term budgeting in Türkiye based on medium-term forecasts of budget revenues and expenditures. Given that Türkiye adopted medium-term budgeting in 2005, the study analyzes two- and three-year budget forecasts for the period between 2009 and 2023. Initially, the accuracy of the forecasts was calculated, identifying which items had higher forecast errors and the direction of these errors. Subsequently, the Holden-Peel 1990 test was employed to determine whether there was any upward or downward bias in the forecasts. The results indicate that forecast errors for both revenues and expenditures were significantly high, revealing that medium-term budgeting was quite unsuccessful. However, there was negligible bias in the forecasts. Despite being prepared 16 times during the examined period, medium-term budgeting practices in Türkiye did not achieve the desired success. Keywords: Medium-Term Budgeting, Budget Forecasting, Türkiye, Holden-Peel Test JEL Codes: H61, H68, E61, E66.

 Orta vadeli bütçe gerçekçiliği hem kamu hem de özel sektörün sürdürülebilir finansal yönetim ve stratejik planlaması için hayati öneme sahiptir. Gerçekçi tahminler, kaynakların etkin bir şekilde dağıtılmasını sağlamakta, gereksiz harcamaların önüne geçmekte ve mali disiplinin korunmasına yardımcı olmaktadır. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin, orta vadeli bütçeleme sayesinde, uzun vadeli sürdürülebilir kalkınmayı tesis edebileceği düşünülmektedir. Bu motivasyonla hareket edilen çalışmada, Türkiyede orta vadeli bütçelemenin başarısı, bütçe gelir ve harcama ile toplamlarının orta vadeli tahminleri üzerinden değerlendirilmiştir. Türkiyede orta vadeli bütçelemeye 2005 yılında geçildiği için 2009-2023 yılları arası, iki ve üç yıllık bütçe tahminleri analiz edilmiştir. İlk olarak tahminlerin gerçekliği hesaplanmış, hangi kalemlerde tahmin hatasının daha fazla olduğu ve hataların hangi yönde seyrettiği tespit edilmiştir. Akabinde Holden-Peel 1990 testi aracılığıyla tahminlerde aşağı yahut yukarı yönlü bir yanlılığın var olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Sonuçlar hem gelir hem de harcama tahmin hatalarının oldukça yüksek olduğunu, orta vadeli bütçelemenin oldukça başarısız olduğunu ancak tahminlerde yanlılığın yok denecek kadar az olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Türkiyede orta vadeli bütçeleme uygulamaları, incelenen dönemde 16 kez hazırlanmış olmasına rağmen, istenilen başarı elde edilememiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Orta Vadeli Bütçe, Bütçe Tahmini, Türkiye, Holden-Peel Testi JEL Kodları: H61, H68, E61, E66.

Makale detayları

The Performance of Medium-Term Budgeting in Türkiye: An Analysis of Budget Forecasts

Yazarlar:

Berat Kara

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası | Bütçe ve Mali Planlama | Kamu Maliyesi

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 4, pp.659-676

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001334225

pISSN:

1302-0064

Medium-Term Budgeting

Budget Forecasting

Turkey

Holden-Peel TestOrta Vadeli Bütçe

Bütçe Tahmini

Türkiye

Holden-Peel Testi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Berat Kara

Yayıncı: Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar: Maliye Politikası | Bütçe ve Mali Planlama | Kamu Maliyesi

Dergi: Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 4, pp.659-676

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001334225

pISSN: 1302-0064

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Berat Kara

Yayıncı:

Manisa Celal Bayar University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası | Bütçe ve Mali Planlama | Kamu Maliyesi

Dergi:

Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi Vol.31 Issue 4, pp.659-676

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001334225

pISSN:

1302-0064