STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES IN BURDUR LAKE UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Murat Pınarlık; Abdulkadir İbiş; Zeliha Selek

Makale detayları

STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES IN BURDUR LAKE UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Yazarlar:

Murat Pınarlık | Abdulkadir İbiş | Zeliha Selek

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

İnşaat Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.81-93

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001285519

pISSN:

1308-6693

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 It is estimated that precipitation will decrease and evaporation and temperature values will increase with the effect of global warming for Turkey. Considering these factors, serious level and volume decreases may occur in water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the changes in the lake water level under the effect of climate change were investigated by considering Burdur Lake. First of all, the relationship between lake parameters and climate parameters between 1975 and 2020 was examined by the correlation method. Then, climate projections estimates were added to the lake level and volume change estimates for the years 2021-2050. According to the climate projections, it was observed that the temperature increased by 11.38 compared to the reference period, the precipitation decreased by 4.5 and the evaporation increased by 15. As a result of the analyzes made, it was observed that the water level of Burdur Lake was in a downtrend in the 1975-2020 period and this situation will continue in the 2021-2050 period. Besides, as a result of the correlation analysis, it was determined that there was a moderately significant negative relationship between the lake level and evaporation -0.6452, and a very weak negative relationship between the lake level and precipitation -0.1066.

 It is estimated that precipitation will decrease and evaporation and temperature values will increase with the effect of global warming for Turkey. Considering these factors, serious level and volume decreases may occur in water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the changes in the lake water level under the effect of climate change were investigated by considering Burdur Lake. First of all, the relationship between lake parameters and climate parameters between 1975 and 2020 was examined by the correlation method. Then, climate projections estimates were added to the lake level and volume change estimates for the years 2021-2050. According to the climate projections, it was observed that the temperature increased by 11.38 compared to the reference period, the precipitation decreased by 4.5 and the evaporation increased by 15. As a result of the analyzes made, it was observed that the water level of Burdur Lake was in a downtrend in the 1975-2020 period and this situation will continue in the 2021-2050 period. Besides, as a result of the correlation analysis, it was determined that there was a moderately significant negative relationship between the lake level and evaporation -0.6452, and a very weak negative relationship between the lake level and precipitation -0.1066.

 It is estimated that precipitation will decrease and evaporation and temperature values will increase with the effect of global warming for Turkey. Considering these factors, serious level and volume decreases may occur in water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs. In this study, the changes in the lake water level under the effect of climate change were investigated by considering Burdur Lake. First of all, the relationship between lake parameters and climate parameters between 1975 and 2020 was examined by the correlation method. Then, climate projections estimates were added to the lake level and volume change estimates for the years 2021-2050. According to the climate projections, it was observed that the temperature increased by 11.38 compared to the reference period, the precipitation decreased by 4.5 and the evaporation increased by 15. As a result of the analyzes made, it was observed that the water level of Burdur Lake was in a downtrend in the 1975-2020 period and this situation will continue in the 2021-2050 period. Besides, as a result of the correlation analysis, it was determined that there was a moderately significant negative relationship between the lake level and evaporation -0.6452, and a very weak negative relationship between the lake level and precipitation -0.1066.

 Türkiye için küresel ısınma etkisi ile yağışların azalacağı, buharlaşma ve sıcaklık değerlerinin artacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Bu etkenler göz önüne alındığında göl, rezervuar gibi su kütlelerinde ciddi seviye ve hacim düşüşleri meydana gelebilecektir. Bu çalışmada, Burdur Gölü ele alınarak iklim değişikliği etkisi altında göl su seviyesindeki değişimler incelenmiştir. İlk olarak, 1975-2020 yılları arasındaki göl parametreleri ile iklim parametreleri arasındaki ilişki korelasyon yöntemi ile irdelenmiştir. Daha sonra, 2021-2050 yılları arasındaki göl seviye ve hacim değişim tahminlerine iklim projeksiyonu tahminleri eklenmiştir. İklim projeksiyonlarına göre sıcaklığın referans döneme göre 11,38 arttığı, yağışların 4,5 azaldığı ve buharlaşmanın ise 15 arttığı görülmüştür. Yapılan analizler sonucunda Burdur Gölü su seviyesinin 1975-2020 periyodunda düşüş trendinde olduğu ve bu durumun 2021-2050 periyodunda devam edeceği gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca, yapılan korelasyon analizleri sonucunda göl seviyesi ile buharlaşma arasında -0,6452 negatif yönlü orta derecede anlamlı ilişki, göl seviyesi ile yağış arasında ise -0,1066 negatif yönlü çok zayıf derecede ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Makale detayları

STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES IN BURDUR LAKE UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Yazarlar:

Murat Pınarlık | Abdulkadir İbiş | Zeliha Selek

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

İnşaat Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.81-93

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001285519

pISSN:

1308-6693

Climate Change

Correlation Analysis

Burdur Lake

Linear Interpolation

Effect of Evaporation

İklim Değişikliği

Korelasyon Analizi

Burdur Gölü

Doğrusal Enterpolasyon

Buharlaşma Etkisi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Murat Pınarlık | Abdulkadir İbiş | Zeliha Selek

Yayıncı: Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar: İnşaat Mühendisliği

Dergi: Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.81-93

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001285519

pISSN: 1308-6693

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Murat Pınarlık | Abdulkadir İbiş | Zeliha Selek

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

İnşaat Mühendisliği

Dergi:

Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.81-93

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001285519

pISSN:

1308-6693