Analyzing The Relationships Between GDP, Public Expenditures and Public Revenues in Turkey

Vasıf Abioğlu; Mustafa Kemal Böge

Makale detayları

Analyzing The Relationships Between GDP, Public Expenditures and Public Revenues in Turkey

Yazarlar:

Vasıf Abioğlu | Mustafa Kemal Böge

Yayıncı:

Mus Alparslan University

Dergi:

Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.96-114

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288884

pISSN:

2149-4622

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between Gross Domestic Product GDP, public expenditures and public revenues in Turkey. For this purpose, dynamic relationships between the variables are investigated using quarterly data for the period 1994-2019. Cointegration and vector error correction methods have been used in the study. Estimation results indicate that public expenditures and public revenues positively affect the GDP in the long-run, while they do not significantly affect the GDP in the short run. Further, a two-way causality relationship was found between public expenditures and public revenues which means that fiscal synchronization hypothesis holds between public expenditures and public revenues in the Turkish economy for that period. In addition, a strong causality relationship from GDP to public expenditures reveals that Wagners law holds between public expenditures and GDP in the economy. Empirical findings suggest that a stable growth rate in the economy will cause public expenditures and public revenues to grow consistently over time with not fostering budget deficits.

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between Gross Domestic Product GDP, public expenditures and public revenues in Turkey. For this purpose, dynamic relationships between the variables are investigated using quarterly data for the period 1994-2019. Cointegration and vector error correction methods have been used in the study. Estimation results indicate that public expenditures and public revenues positively affect the GDP in the long-run, while they do not significantly affect the GDP in the short run. Further, a two-way causality relationship was found between public expenditures and public revenues which means that fiscal synchronization hypothesis holds between public expenditures and public revenues in the Turkish economy for that period. In addition, a strong causality relationship from GDP to public expenditures reveals that Wagners law holds between public expenditures and GDP in the economy. Empirical findings suggest that a stable growth rate in the economy will cause public expenditures and public revenues to grow consistently over time with not fostering budget deficits.

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between Gross Domestic Product GDP, public expenditures and public revenues in Turkey. For this purpose, dynamic relationships between the variables are investigated using quarterly data for the period 1994-2019. Cointegration and vector error correction methods have been used in the study. Estimation results indicate that public expenditures and public revenues positively affect the GDP in the long-run, while they do not significantly affect the GDP in the short run. Further, a two-way causality relationship was found between public expenditures and public revenues which means that fiscal synchronization hypothesis holds between public expenditures and public revenues in the Turkish economy for that period. In addition, a strong causality relationship from GDP to public expenditures reveals that Wagners law holds between public expenditures and GDP in the economy. Empirical findings suggest that a stable growth rate in the economy will cause public expenditures and public revenues to grow consistently over time with not fostering budget deficits.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiyede Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla GSYH, kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, 1994-2019 dönemi için çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılarak söz konusu değişkenler arasında dinamik ilişkiler analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada ekonometrik analiz yöntemi olarak eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçlarına göre, kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri kısa dönemde GSYHyı istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde etkilemezken, uzun dönemde GSYHyı pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, kamu harcamaları ile kamu gelirleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğu için söz konusu kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirleri arasında mali senkronizasyon hipotezinin geçerli olduğu sonucuna varılmaktadır. Ek olarak, tahmin sonuçlarına göre, GSYHdan kamu harcamalarına doğru kuvvetli bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğu için Türkiye ekonomisinde Wagner yasasının geçerli olduğu sonucuna varılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, ekonomide istikrarlı bir büyüme oranının, bütçe açıklarını teşvik etmeden, kamu harcamaları ve kamu gelirlerinin zaman içerisinde tutarlı bir şekilde büyümesine neden olacağına işaret etmektedir.

Makale detayları

Analyzing The Relationships Between GDP, Public Expenditures and Public Revenues in Turkey

Yazarlar:

Vasıf Abioğlu | Mustafa Kemal Böge

Yayıncı:

Mus Alparslan University

Dergi:

Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.96-114

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288884

pISSN:

2149-4622

Public Expenditures

Public Revenues

Granger Causality

Fiscal Synchronization

Wagner’s LawKamu Harcamaları

Kamu Gelirleri

Granger Nedensellik

Mali Senkronizasyon

Wagner Yasası

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Vasıf Abioğlu | Mustafa Kemal Böge

Yayıncı: Mus Alparslan University

Dergi: Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.96-114

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001288884

pISSN: 2149-4622

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Vasıf Abioğlu | Mustafa Kemal Böge

Yayıncı:

Mus Alparslan University

Dergi:

Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.11 Issue 1, pp.96-114

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001288884

pISSN:

2149-4622