The Forecasting of Health Expenditure in Türkiye Using ARIMA Method

Muhammed Hasan Yücel; Zafer Çalışkan

Makale detayları

The Forecasting of Health Expenditure in Türkiye Using ARIMA Method

Yazarlar:

Muhammed Hasan Yücel | Zafer Çalışkan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.552-580

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302211

pISSN:

2564-7504

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Human capital is the sum of the knowledge and skills acquired by an individual during hisher life. This study starts from the hypothesis that health investments affect the development and development of society in the context of protecting the knowledge and skills acquired by a person with the concept of human capital. The study aims to project the government health expenditures made on health services in Türkiye. The existence of a society with a high level of health positively affects economic development, progress, and growth. A high level of well-being increases the demand for health services and increases spending in the health sector. In this study, the government health expenditures spent from the central budget in Türkiye are estimated using the ARIMA 10,1,1 model. In the analysis carried out with 234 observations, the total monthly government health expenditures data based on provinces taken from the accounting information system of the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance are used. In the study, where the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied and monthly data covering the period 2004:M01-2023:M06 are used, government health expenditures are estimated to increase over the next three years and to increase to 380 billion TL in 2023, 538 billion TL in 2024, and 694 billion TL in 2025. On the other hand, it is estimated that the realized public health expenditures will increase to approximately 27 billion 679 million TL in 2023, 30 billion 756 million TL in 2024, and 32 billion 530 million TL in 2025.

 Human capital is the sum of the knowledge and skills acquired by an individual during hisher life. This study starts from the hypothesis that health investments affect the development and development of society in the context of protecting the knowledge and skills acquired by a person with the concept of human capital. The study aims to project the government health expenditures made on health services in Türkiye. The existence of a society with a high level of health positively affects economic development, progress, and growth. A high level of well-being increases the demand for health services and increases spending in the health sector. In this study, the government health expenditures spent from the central budget in Türkiye are estimated using the ARIMA 10,1,1 model. In the analysis carried out with 234 observations, the total monthly government health expenditures data based on provinces taken from the accounting information system of the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance are used. In the study, where the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied and monthly data covering the period 2004:M01-2023:M06 are used, government health expenditures are estimated to increase over the next three years and to increase to 380 billion TL in 2023, 538 billion TL in 2024, and 694 billion TL in 2025. On the other hand, it is estimated that the realized public health expenditures will increase to approximately 27 billion 679 million TL in 2023, 30 billion 756 million TL in 2024, and 32 billion 530 million TL in 2025.

 Human capital is the sum of the knowledge and skills acquired by an individual during hisher life. This study starts from the hypothesis that health investments affect the development and development of society in the context of protecting the knowledge and skills acquired by a person with the concept of human capital. The study aims to project the government health expenditures made on health services in Türkiye. The existence of a society with a high level of health positively affects economic development, progress, and growth. A high level of well-being increases the demand for health services and increases spending in the health sector. In this study, the government health expenditures spent from the central budget in Türkiye are estimated using the ARIMA 10,1,1 model. In the analysis carried out with 234 observations, the total monthly government health expenditures data based on provinces taken from the accounting information system of the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance are used. In the study, where the Box-Jenkins methodology is applied and monthly data covering the period 2004:M01-2023:M06 are used, government health expenditures are estimated to increase over the next three years and to increase to 380 billion TL in 2023, 538 billion TL in 2024, and 694 billion TL in 2025. On the other hand, it is estimated that the realized public health expenditures will increase to approximately 27 billion 679 million TL in 2023, 30 billion 756 million TL in 2024, and 32 billion 530 million TL in 2025.

 Beşerî sermaye bireyin hayatı süresince edindiği bilgi ve becerilerin toplamı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışma beşerî sermaye kavramı ile kişinin edinmiş olduğu bilgi ve becerilerin korunması bağlamında sağlık yatırımlarının toplumun kalkınması ve gelişmesini etkilediği hipotezinden yola çıkmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı Türkiyede sağlık hizmetlerine yapılan kamu sağlık harcamalarının projeksiyonunu yapmaktır. Sağlık düzeyi yüksek bir toplumun varlığı ekonomik gelişmeyi, ilerlemeyi ve büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. Refah düzeyinin yüksek olması sağlık hizmetlerine olan talebi artırdığı gibi sağlık sektöründe yapılan harcamaları da artırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiyede merkezi bütçeden harcanan kamu sağlık harcamaları ARIMA 10,1,1 modeli ile tahmin edilmektedir. 234 gözlem ile yapılan analizde Hazine Bakanlığı muhasebat bilgi sisteminden alınan iller bazında aylık toplam kamu sağlık harcama verileri kullanılmaktadır. Box-Jenkins metodolojisinin uygulandığı ve 2004:M01-2023:M06 dönemini kapsayan aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada nominal kamu sağlık harcamalarının gelecek üç yıl içerisinde artacağı ve 2023 yılında 380 milyar TLye, 2024 yılında 538 milyar TLye ve 2025 yılında 694 milyar TLye çıkacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Reel hale getirilmiş kamu sağlık harcamalarının ise 2023 yılında yaklaşık 27 milyar 679 milyon TL, 2024 yılında 30 milyar 756 milyon TL ve 2025 yılında 32 milyar 530 milyon TL düzeyine yükseleceği öngörülmektedir.

Makale detayları

The Forecasting of Health Expenditure in Türkiye Using ARIMA Method

Yazarlar:

Muhammed Hasan Yücel | Zafer Çalışkan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.552-580

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302211

pISSN:

2564-7504

Government Health Expenditure

ARIMA

Time Series Forecasting

Box-Jenkins MethodologyKamu Sağlık Harcamaları

ARIMA

Zaman Serisi Tahmini

Box-Jenkins Metodolojisi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Muhammed Hasan Yücel | Zafer Çalışkan

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Zaman Serileri Analizi | Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)

Dergi: Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.552-580

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001302211

pISSN: 2564-7504

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Muhammed Hasan Yücel | Zafer Çalışkan

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Zaman Serileri Analizi | Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.552-580

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001302211

pISSN:

2564-7504