Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test Approach On Economical Growth In Turkey

Sinem Geçgel Karagöl; Barış Aşıkgil

Makale detayları

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test Approach On Economical Growth In Turkey

Yazarlar:

Sinem Geçgel Karagöl | Barış Aşıkgil

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı İstatistik

Dergi:

International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences Vol.37 Issue UYIK 2024 Special Issue, pp.50-58

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001331365

pISSN:

2636-8277

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The aim of this study is to explore long and short term effects of relations among consumption of electricity, inflation and economical growth by using the annual data between period of 1960-2014 in Turkey. It is observed by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF and Phillips-Perron PP unit root tests that the first differences of the variables are stationary. Thus, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL Model approach given by Pesaran et al. 2001 is used in order to determine long term realtionship. After examining the long-term ARDL bound test coefficients, the error correction model ECM for short-term dynamics is interpreted based on the coefficients. In order to explore whether there is a structural break in the model, CUSUM and CUSUM Square tests are used and in view of the results of these tests there is no structural break. Moreover, it is examined whether the assumptions related with the error term are satisfied or not. It is emphasized that inflation and electricity consumption in Turkey will affect the economic growth positively or negatively in the long term by using the ARDL bounds test approach.

 The aim of this study is to explore long and short term effects of relations among consumption of electricity, inflation and economical growth by using the annual data between period of 1960-2014 in Turkey. It is observed by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF and Phillips-Perron PP unit root tests that the first differences of the variables are stationary. Thus, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL Model approach given by Pesaran et al. 2001 is used in order to determine long term realtionship. After examining the long-term ARDL bound test coefficients, the error correction model ECM for short-term dynamics is interpreted based on the coefficients. In order to explore whether there is a structural break in the model, CUSUM and CUSUM Square tests are used and in view of the results of these tests there is no structural break. Moreover, it is examined whether the assumptions related with the error term are satisfied or not. It is emphasized that inflation and electricity consumption in Turkey will affect the economic growth positively or negatively in the long term by using the ARDL bounds test approach.

 The aim of this study is to explore long and short term effects of relations among consumption of electricity, inflation and economical growth by using the annual data between period of 1960-2014 in Turkey. It is observed by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF and Phillips-Perron PP unit root tests that the first differences of the variables are stationary. Thus, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL Model approach given by Pesaran et al. 2001 is used in order to determine long term realtionship. After examining the long-term ARDL bound test coefficients, the error correction model ECM for short-term dynamics is interpreted based on the coefficients. In order to explore whether there is a structural break in the model, CUSUM and CUSUM Square tests are used and in view of the results of these tests there is no structural break. Moreover, it is examined whether the assumptions related with the error term are satisfied or not. It is emphasized that inflation and electricity consumption in Turkey will affect the economic growth positively or negatively in the long term by using the ARDL bounds test approach.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiyede 1960-2014 dönemleri arasında, ekonomik büyüme, elektrik tüketimi ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin kısa ve uzun dönemdeki etkilerinin araştırılmasıdır. Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ADF ve Phillips-Perron PP birim kök testlerinden faydalanılarak değişkenlerin birinci düzeyde durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Böylece değişkenler üzerinde uzun dönem ilişkinin belirlenmesi için Pesaran vd. 2001 tarafından geliştirilen Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif ARDL Model yaklaşımı yapılmıştır. Uzun dönemde ARDL sınır testi katsayılarının incelenmesinden sonra kısa dönem dinamiklerine ilişkin hata düzeltme modeline HDM bakılarak katsayılar üzerinden yorum yapılmıştır. Model üzerinde yapısal kırılma olup olmadığını araştırmak için CUSUM ve CUSUM Kare testleri kullanılmış ve modelde yapısal kırılma olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bunun yanında, hata terimiyle ilgili varsayımların sağlanıp sağlanmadığı incelenmiştir. ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile uzun dönemde Türkiyedeki enflasyon ve elektrik tüketiminin ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu veya olumsuz etkileyeceği üzerinde durulmuştur.

Makale detayları

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test Approach On Economical Growth In Turkey

Yazarlar:

Sinem Geçgel Karagöl | Barış Aşıkgil

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı İstatistik

Dergi:

International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences Vol.37 Issue UYIK 2024 Special Issue, pp.50-58

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001331365

pISSN:

2636-8277

Economical Growth

Inflation

Consumption of Electricity

ARDL Bounds Test

Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model.Ekonomik Büyüme

Enflasyon

Elektrik Tüketimi

ARDL Sınır Testi

Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Sinem Geçgel Karagöl | Barış Aşıkgil

Yayıncı: Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar: Uygulamalı İstatistik

Dergi: International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences Vol.37 Issue UYIK 2024 Special Issue, pp.50-58

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001331365

pISSN: 2636-8277

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Sinem Geçgel Karagöl | Barış Aşıkgil

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı İstatistik

Dergi:

International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences Vol.37 Issue UYIK 2024 Special Issue, pp.50-58

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001331365

pISSN:

2636-8277