The Relationship between Agricultural Production, Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Murat Ergül; Ali Rauf Karataş

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Agricultural Production, Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Yazarlar:

Murat Ergül | Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Büyüme

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2144-2168

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329567

pISSN:

1304-5318

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study aimed to assess the influence of agricultural production and agricultural product exports on economic growth within the Turkish economy. To achieve this, annual data spanning from 1980 to 2022 were utilized to construct a model, employing the ARDL Bounds Test to discern the long-term cointegration relationship among variables and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test to determine causality relationships. The empirical findings from the ARDL Bounds Test indicate that increases in both agricultural production and agricultural product exports positively impact economic growth. Moreover, results from the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test unveil a two-way causal relationship between agricultural production and GDP, while a one-way causality relationship is observed between agricultural product exports and GDP. Despite the declining share of the agricultural sector in GDP over the years in Turkey, these findings underscore the enduring importance of agriculture in driving economic growth and creating value. As potential solutions to Turkeys balance of payments challenges, strategies such as boosting domestic demand, expanding the domestic market, and augmenting agricultural sector contributions to foreign exchange earnings through agricultural export subsidies are proposed. Furthermore, efforts to mitigate income disparities between the agricultural sector and other sectors could foster socio-economic development in rural areas, thus promoting a more equitable distribution of national income across society.

 This study aimed to assess the influence of agricultural production and agricultural product exports on economic growth within the Turkish economy. To achieve this, annual data spanning from 1980 to 2022 were utilized to construct a model, employing the ARDL Bounds Test to discern the long-term cointegration relationship among variables and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test to determine causality relationships. The empirical findings from the ARDL Bounds Test indicate that increases in both agricultural production and agricultural product exports positively impact economic growth. Moreover, results from the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test unveil a two-way causal relationship between agricultural production and GDP, while a one-way causality relationship is observed between agricultural product exports and GDP. Despite the declining share of the agricultural sector in GDP over the years in Turkey, these findings underscore the enduring importance of agriculture in driving economic growth and creating value. As potential solutions to Turkeys balance of payments challenges, strategies such as boosting domestic demand, expanding the domestic market, and augmenting agricultural sector contributions to foreign exchange earnings through agricultural export subsidies are proposed. Furthermore, efforts to mitigate income disparities between the agricultural sector and other sectors could foster socio-economic development in rural areas, thus promoting a more equitable distribution of national income across society.

 This study aimed to assess the influence of agricultural production and agricultural product exports on economic growth within the Turkish economy. To achieve this, annual data spanning from 1980 to 2022 were utilized to construct a model, employing the ARDL Bounds Test to discern the long-term cointegration relationship among variables and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test to determine causality relationships. The empirical findings from the ARDL Bounds Test indicate that increases in both agricultural production and agricultural product exports positively impact economic growth. Moreover, results from the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test unveil a two-way causal relationship between agricultural production and GDP, while a one-way causality relationship is observed between agricultural product exports and GDP. Despite the declining share of the agricultural sector in GDP over the years in Turkey, these findings underscore the enduring importance of agriculture in driving economic growth and creating value. As potential solutions to Turkeys balance of payments challenges, strategies such as boosting domestic demand, expanding the domestic market, and augmenting agricultural sector contributions to foreign exchange earnings through agricultural export subsidies are proposed. Furthermore, efforts to mitigate income disparities between the agricultural sector and other sectors could foster socio-economic development in rural areas, thus promoting a more equitable distribution of national income across society.

 Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde tarımsal üretim ve tarım ürünleri ihracatının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini tespit etmek amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 1980-2022 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak kurulan modelde, değişkenler arasında uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla ARDL Sınır Testi, nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla ise Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi analiz aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. ARDL Sınır Testi neticesinde elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre tarımsal üretim ve tarım ürünleri ihracatındaki artışların ekonomik büyümeye pozitif yönde katkı sağladığı tespit edilmiştir. Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre ise tarımsal üretim ile GSYH arasında çift yönlü, tarım ürünleri ihracatı ile GSYH arasında ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye ekonomisinde yıllar itibariyle tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payı önemli ölçüde azalmış olsa da tarımın ekonomik büyümede halen önemli bir belirleyici olduğunu ve katma değer yarattığını göstermiştir. Bu sebeple iç talebin artırılması ve iç pazarın genişletilmesine ek olarak tarımsal ihracat sübvansiyonları ile tarım sektörünün döviz gelirlerine katkısının artırılması Türkiyenin ödemeler bilançosu sorunlarına da çözüm alternatifi olacaktır. Ayrıca tarım ve diğer sektörlerin toplam gelirden aldığı paylar arasındaki farkların azaltılması ile özellikle kırsal kesimin sosyoekonomik gelişmişliği yükselecek ve milli gelirin toplumsal tabana daha dengeli dağılmasına katkı sağlanabilecektir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Agricultural Production, Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Yazarlar:

Murat Ergül | Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Büyüme

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2144-2168

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329567

pISSN:

1304-5318

Agricultural Production

Agricultural Product Exports

Economic GrowthTarımsal Üretim

Tarımsal Ürün İhracatı

Ekonomik Büyüme.

Sayı

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Agricultural Production, Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Türkiye: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Yazarlar: Murat Ergül | Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar: Makroekonomik Teori | Büyüme

Dergi: Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2144-2168

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001329567

pISSN: 1304-5318

Agricultural Production

Agricultural Product Exports

Economic GrowthTarımsal Üretim

Tarımsal Ürün İhracatı

Ekonomik Büyüme.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Murat Ergül | Ali Rauf Karataş

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Büyüme

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2144-2168

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329567

pISSN:

1304-5318