Analysis of the Effect of Agricultural Loan Interest Rates on Fertilizer Consumption Amount in Türkiye: ARDL Bounds Testing

Ömer Keskin

Makale detayları

Analysis of the Effect of Agricultural Loan Interest Rates on Fertilizer Consumption Amount in Türkiye: ARDL Bounds Testing

Yazarlar:

Ömer Keskin

Yayıncı:

Kirsehir Ahi Evran University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.3 Issue 2, pp.222-234

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307285

pISSN:

2791-9161

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, it is aimed to determine the effect of agricultural loan interest rates on fertilizer consumption amount in Türkiye using time series analysis. For this purpose, data spanning 53 years 1969-2021 were gathered from various sources, including interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount. A model was constructed with interest rate as the independent variable and fertilizer consumption amount as the dependent variable, and ARDL bounds testing method was applied to the model. According to the results obtained from the estimation of the model, there is a long-term, negative, and significant cointegration relationship between interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount variables. A 1 increase in interest rate reduces fertilizer consumption amount by approximately 0.50. In addition, the short-term relationship between the variables is negative and statistically significant. Deviations from the long-term equilibrium between the variables that occur following short-term shocks vanish by around 20 after 1 period.

 In this study, it is aimed to determine the effect of agricultural loan interest rates on fertilizer consumption amount in Türkiye using time series analysis. For this purpose, data spanning 53 years 1969-2021 were gathered from various sources, including interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount. A model was constructed with interest rate as the independent variable and fertilizer consumption amount as the dependent variable, and ARDL bounds testing method was applied to the model. According to the results obtained from the estimation of the model, there is a long-term, negative, and significant cointegration relationship between interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount variables. A 1 increase in interest rate reduces fertilizer consumption amount by approximately 0.50. In addition, the short-term relationship between the variables is negative and statistically significant. Deviations from the long-term equilibrium between the variables that occur following short-term shocks vanish by around 20 after 1 period.

 In this study, it is aimed to determine the effect of agricultural loan interest rates on fertilizer consumption amount in Türkiye using time series analysis. For this purpose, data spanning 53 years 1969-2021 were gathered from various sources, including interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount. A model was constructed with interest rate as the independent variable and fertilizer consumption amount as the dependent variable, and ARDL bounds testing method was applied to the model. According to the results obtained from the estimation of the model, there is a long-term, negative, and significant cointegration relationship between interest rate and fertilizer consumption amount variables. A 1 increase in interest rate reduces fertilizer consumption amount by approximately 0.50. In addition, the short-term relationship between the variables is negative and statistically significant. Deviations from the long-term equilibrium between the variables that occur following short-term shocks vanish by around 20 after 1 period.

 Bu çalışmada Türkiyedeki tarımsal kredi faiz oranlarının gübre tüketim miktarına etkisini zaman serisi analiziyle belirlemek amaçlanmıştır. Amaç doğrultusunda faiz oranı ve gübre tüketim miktarı ile ilgili çeşitli veri kaynaklarından 1969-2021 dönemine ait 53 yıl veriler toplanmıştır. Analiz için faiz oranının bağımsız, gübre tüketim miktarının ise bağımlı değişken olarak dahil edildiği bir model kurulup bu modeli tahmin etmek üzere ARDL sınır testi yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Tahminden elde edilen sonuçlara göre; faiz oranı değişkeniyle gübre tüketim miktarı değişkeni arasında uzun dönemli, negatif yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Faiz oranında yaşanan 1lik yükseliş, gübre tüketim miktarını yaklaşık 0.50 azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasında bulunan kısa dönemli ilişki de negatif yönlü olup istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Kısa dönemli şokları takiben oluşan değişkenler arası uzun dönem dengesinden sapmalar 1 dönem sonra yaklaşık 20 ortadan kalkmaktadır.

Makale detayları

Analysis of the Effect of Agricultural Loan Interest Rates on Fertilizer Consumption Amount in Türkiye: ARDL Bounds Testing

Yazarlar:

Ömer Keskin

Yayıncı:

Kirsehir Ahi Evran University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.3 Issue 2, pp.222-234

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307285

pISSN:

2791-9161

Capitalization

Agricultural Loans

Agriculture Inputs

Time Series Analysisİşletme Sermayesi

Tarım Kredileri

Tarım Girdileri

Zaman Serisi Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Ömer Keskin

Yayıncı: Kirsehir Ahi Evran University

Ana Başlıklar: Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi: Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.3 Issue 2, pp.222-234

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001307285

pISSN: 2791-9161

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ömer Keskin

Yayıncı:

Kirsehir Ahi Evran University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Dergi:

Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.3 Issue 2, pp.222-234

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001307285

pISSN:

2791-9161