Cost Analysis of Türkiye Onshore Wind Power Plants: Adilcevaz Region Case Study

Soner Çelikdemir; Mahmut Temel Özdemir

Makale detayları

Cost Analysis of Türkiye Onshore Wind Power Plants: Adilcevaz Region Case Study

Yazarlar:

Soner Çelikdemir | Mahmut Temel Özdemir

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 75, pp.539-550

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298678

pISSN:

1302-9304

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The increase in the use of electrical energy also requires new investments. For this reason, it is inevitable to make many different new electrical energy generation system investments. In this context, having a realistic cost estimation provides many advantages to investors. In order to use this advantage, this study focuses on determining the realistic investment costs of WPP. In the study, an equation model is proposed for the first time for the estimation of new WPP investment costs by analyzing WPP investment costs in Turkey. Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization was preferred to determine the parameters in the proposed equation model. The MATLAB program was used to calculate the parameters in the proposed equation model. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.37. The accuracy of the proposed equation model was tested with WPPs of different turbine types. As a result of the test, the validity of the proposed equation model is shown. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.77. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed in the study and cost changes in different parameter values were expressed. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is seen that the change in the installed power value on the cost is more dominant than the change in rotor diameter and tower height. Finally, a case study was conducted in the Adilcevaz region. Costs were calculated for 14 different turbine models belonging to 4 different turbine manufacturers for the wind energy farm to be established in the determined region. As a result of these calculations, the turbine model suitable for unit cost was determined as Nordex N117-33.

 The increase in the use of electrical energy also requires new investments. For this reason, it is inevitable to make many different new electrical energy generation system investments. In this context, having a realistic cost estimation provides many advantages to investors. In order to use this advantage, this study focuses on determining the realistic investment costs of WPP. In the study, an equation model is proposed for the first time for the estimation of new WPP investment costs by analyzing WPP investment costs in Turkey. Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization was preferred to determine the parameters in the proposed equation model. The MATLAB program was used to calculate the parameters in the proposed equation model. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.37. The accuracy of the proposed equation model was tested with WPPs of different turbine types. As a result of the test, the validity of the proposed equation model is shown. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.77. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed in the study and cost changes in different parameter values were expressed. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is seen that the change in the installed power value on the cost is more dominant than the change in rotor diameter and tower height. Finally, a case study was conducted in the Adilcevaz region. Costs were calculated for 14 different turbine models belonging to 4 different turbine manufacturers for the wind energy farm to be established in the determined region. As a result of these calculations, the turbine model suitable for unit cost was determined as Nordex N117-33.

 The increase in the use of electrical energy also requires new investments. For this reason, it is inevitable to make many different new electrical energy generation system investments. In this context, having a realistic cost estimation provides many advantages to investors. In order to use this advantage, this study focuses on determining the realistic investment costs of WPP. In the study, an equation model is proposed for the first time for the estimation of new WPP investment costs by analyzing WPP investment costs in Turkey. Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization was preferred to determine the parameters in the proposed equation model. The MATLAB program was used to calculate the parameters in the proposed equation model. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.37. The accuracy of the proposed equation model was tested with WPPs of different turbine types. As a result of the test, the validity of the proposed equation model is shown. As a result of the analysis, the average error was calculated as 6.77. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed in the study and cost changes in different parameter values were expressed. According to the sensitivity analysis, it is seen that the change in the installed power value on the cost is more dominant than the change in rotor diameter and tower height. Finally, a case study was conducted in the Adilcevaz region. Costs were calculated for 14 different turbine models belonging to 4 different turbine manufacturers for the wind energy farm to be established in the determined region. As a result of these calculations, the turbine model suitable for unit cost was determined as Nordex N117-33.

 Elektrik enerjisi kullanımının artması yeni yatırımları da gerektirmektedir. Bu nedenle bir çok farklı yeni elektrik enerjisi üretim sistemi yatırımlarının yapılması kaçınılmazdır. Bu bağlamda gerçekçi bir maliyet tahminine sahip olmak yatırımcılara birçok avantaj sağlamaktadır. Bu avantajı kullanmak için bu çalışmada RESlerin gerçekçi yatırım maliyetlerinin belirlenmesine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiyedeki RES yatırım maliyetleri analiz edilerek yeni RES yatırım maliyetlerinin tahmini için ilk kez bir denklem modeli önerilmiştir. Önerilen denklem modelinde parametreleri belirlemek için Kaos Gömülü Adaptif Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu tercih edilmiştir. Önerilen denklem modelindeki parametrelerin hesaplanması için MATLAB programı kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda ortalama hata 6,37 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Farklı türbin türlerindeki RESler ile önerilen denklem modelinin doğruluğu test edilmiştir. Test sonucunda önerilen denklem modelinin geçerliliği gösterilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda ortalama hata  6,77 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmada duyarlılık analizi yapılmış ve farklı parametre değerlerindeki maliyet değişimleri ifade edilmiştir. Duyarlılık analizine göre maliyet üzerinde kurulu güç değerindeki değişimin, rotor çapı ve kule yüksekliğindeki değişime göre daha baskın olduğu görülmektedir. Son olarak Adilcevaz bölgesinde bir vaka çalışması yapılmıştır. Belirlenen bölgede kurulacak rüzgar enerji çiftliği için 4 farklı türbin markasına ait 14 farklı türbin modeli için maliyetler hesaplanmıştır. Bu hesaplamalar sonucunda birim maliyet olarak uygun türbin modeli Nordex N117-33 olarak belirlenmiştir.

Makale detayları

Cost Analysis of Türkiye Onshore Wind Power Plants: Adilcevaz Region Case Study

Yazarlar:

Soner Çelikdemir | Mahmut Temel Özdemir

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 75, pp.539-550

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298678

pISSN:

1302-9304

Estimation of Wind Power Plant Energy Potential

Chaos Embedded Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization

Cost Analysis

Sensitivity AnalysisRüzgar Enerjisi Potansiyeli

Kaos Gömülü Adaptif Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu

Maliyet Analizi

Duyarlılık Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Soner Çelikdemir | Mahmut Temel Özdemir

Yayıncı: Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar: Mühendislik

Dergi: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 75, pp.539-550

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001298678

pISSN: 1302-9304

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Soner Çelikdemir | Mahmut Temel Özdemir

Yayıncı:

Dokuz Eylul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.25 Issue 75, pp.539-550

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298678

pISSN:

1302-9304