Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought at Apa Dam (Konya) Basin

Türker Tuğrul; Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Makale detayları

Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought at Apa Dam (Konya) Basin

Yazarlar:

Türker Tuğrul | Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Yayıncı:

Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.151-163

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295383

pISSN:

2146-7277

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Evaluation of precipitation and flow parameters and drought are essential in the management of a dam basin. Determining the changes in these parameters will contribute to the planning for the future of water resources. In this study, trend analysis of precipitation and flow data of the Apa Dam basin located in the boundaries of Konya Closed Basin and two drought indices namely Standardized Precipitation Index SPI and Streamflow Drought Index SDI, obtained based on these data were performed. In the drought indices, indices for the corresponding to the precipitation totals of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were used. In trend analysis, non-parametric Mann- Kendall MK test, Spearmans Rho test and Innovative Trend Methods ITA were used to investigate whether there was a statistical change in the data and in which direction the change trend was. The results of trend analysis revealed that there is an increasing trend in all data in the findings obtained from ITA and increasing trend in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level in the findings obtained from MK and increasing trend in SPI3 and SDI 12 in α0.10 α0.05 significance level respectively, but the trend was not statistically significant in other data. In Spearmans Rho test, on the other hand, an increasing trend was found in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level. However, the trend was not statistically significant in other data.

 Evaluation of precipitation and flow parameters and drought are essential in the management of a dam basin. Determining the changes in these parameters will contribute to the planning for the future of water resources. In this study, trend analysis of precipitation and flow data of the Apa Dam basin located in the boundaries of Konya Closed Basin and two drought indices namely Standardized Precipitation Index SPI and Streamflow Drought Index SDI, obtained based on these data were performed. In the drought indices, indices for the corresponding to the precipitation totals of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were used. In trend analysis, non-parametric Mann- Kendall MK test, Spearmans Rho test and Innovative Trend Methods ITA were used to investigate whether there was a statistical change in the data and in which direction the change trend was. The results of trend analysis revealed that there is an increasing trend in all data in the findings obtained from ITA and increasing trend in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level in the findings obtained from MK and increasing trend in SPI3 and SDI 12 in α0.10 α0.05 significance level respectively, but the trend was not statistically significant in other data. In Spearmans Rho test, on the other hand, an increasing trend was found in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level. However, the trend was not statistically significant in other data.

 Evaluation of precipitation and flow parameters and drought are essential in the management of a dam basin. Determining the changes in these parameters will contribute to the planning for the future of water resources. In this study, trend analysis of precipitation and flow data of the Apa Dam basin located in the boundaries of Konya Closed Basin and two drought indices namely Standardized Precipitation Index SPI and Streamflow Drought Index SDI, obtained based on these data were performed. In the drought indices, indices for the corresponding to the precipitation totals of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were used. In trend analysis, non-parametric Mann- Kendall MK test, Spearmans Rho test and Innovative Trend Methods ITA were used to investigate whether there was a statistical change in the data and in which direction the change trend was. The results of trend analysis revealed that there is an increasing trend in all data in the findings obtained from ITA and increasing trend in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level in the findings obtained from MK and increasing trend in SPI3 and SDI 12 in α0.10 α0.05 significance level respectively, but the trend was not statistically significant in other data. In Spearmans Rho test, on the other hand, an increasing trend was found in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α0.01 significance level. However, the trend was not statistically significant in other data.

 Bir baraj havzası yönetiminde yağış ve akım parametreleri ile kuraklık değerlendirilmesi önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu parametrelerdeki değişimlerin tespit edilmesi gelecekle ilgili su kaynaklarının planlamasına katkıda bulunacaktır. Bu çalışmada Konya Kapalı Havzası sınırları içerisinde bulunan Apa Barajı havzasına ait yağış ve akım verilerinin ve bu verilere bağlı elde edilen iki adet kuraklık indisinin Normalleştirilmiş Yağış İndisi NYİ ve Akım Kuraklık İndisi AKİ trend analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık indislerinde 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık yağış toplamlarına karşılık gelen indisler kullanılmıştır. Trend analizinde parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall MK, Spearmans Rho ve Yenilikçi Şen Trend Yöntemi YŞTY kullanılarak istatistiksel anlamda verilerde değişim olup olmadığı ve değişim trendinin hangi yönde olduğu araştırılmıştır. Trend analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde YŞTYden edilen bulgularda tüm verilerde yağış, akım, NYİ ve AKİ artan trendlerin, MKden elde edilen bulgularda NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12de α0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde artan trend, NYİ3 ve AKİ12de α0.10 α0.05 anlamlılık seviyesinde sırasıyla artan trend bulunmuş diğer verilerde trend anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Spearmans Rho testinde ise NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12de α0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde artan trend bulunmuş, diğer verilerde trend anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Yağış ve akım verilerinde; MK ve Spearmans Rho testlerinde trend tespit edilemezken, YŞTYde bütün verilerde artan trendin meydana geldiği belirlenmiştir.

Makale detayları

Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought at Apa Dam (Konya) Basin

Yazarlar:

Türker Tuğrul | Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Yayıncı:

Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.151-163

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295383

pISSN:

2146-7277

Trend analysis

Drought

Precipitation

Innovative Trend Analysis

Mann-Kendall

Spearman’s Rho

Dam managementTrend analizi

Kuraklık

Yağış

Yenilikçi Trend Analizi

Mann-Kendall

Spearman’s Rho

Baraj yönetimi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Türker Tuğrul | Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Yayıncı: Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University

Ana Başlıklar: Mühendislik

Dergi: Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.151-163

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001295383

pISSN: 2146-7277

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Türker Tuğrul | Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Yayıncı:

Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Mühendislik

Dergi:

Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.151-163

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295383

pISSN:

2146-7277