REVISITING THE EFFECT OF BUDGET DEFICIT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM 1990 TO 2023

Burak Doğangün; Yasin Karadeniz

Makale detayları

REVISITING THE EFFECT OF BUDGET DEFICIT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM 1990 TO 2023

Yazarlar:

Burak Doğangün | Yasin Karadeniz

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 57, pp.1885-1909

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355317

pISSN:

1304-5318

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The effect of the budget deficit on various macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, and the current account deficit, continues to be a subject of ongoing debate in the literature. Among these indicators, the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit is typically analyzed within the frameworks of the Traditional Keynesian and Ricardian perspectives. The Traditional view suggests that an increase in the budget deficit leads to a widening of the current account deficit, whereas the Ricardian perspective argues that the budget deficit has no significant effect on the current account deficit. In this context, the present study aims to investigate the impact of the budget deficit on the current account deficit in Türkiye. To achieve this objective, annual data from 1990 to 2023 are analyzed using the ARDL Bounds Test, the Maki Cointegration Test, and the FMOLS Coefficient Estimator methods. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in the budget deficit corresponds to a 0.41-unit decrease in the current account deficit. In other words, the findings of this study do not support the Traditional view, which posits that a budget deficit leads to a widening current account deficit, nor do they align with the Ricardian perspective, which asserts that the budget deficit has no effect on the current account deficit. Moreover, the results largely contrast with those of previous empirical studies in the existing literature. It is likely that the results for Türkiye during the 19902023 period are primarily driven by the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Additional analyses suggest that the budget deficit induces a real depreciation of the national currency and an increase in private savings. Specifically, for every one-unit increase in the budget deficit, the real exchange rate rises by 0.10 units, while private savings increase by approximately 1.03 units. In conclusion, these econometric findings indicate that the budget deficit improves the current account balance through the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Finally, when examining the trends in the budget deficit, current account deficit, private savings, and real exchange rate indicators in Türkiye over the study period, the observed patterns appear to be consistent with the econometric findings.

 The effect of the budget deficit on various macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, and the current account deficit, continues to be a subject of ongoing debate in the literature. Among these indicators, the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit is typically analyzed within the frameworks of the Traditional Keynesian and Ricardian perspectives. The Traditional view suggests that an increase in the budget deficit leads to a widening of the current account deficit, whereas the Ricardian perspective argues that the budget deficit has no significant effect on the current account deficit. In this context, the present study aims to investigate the impact of the budget deficit on the current account deficit in Türkiye. To achieve this objective, annual data from 1990 to 2023 are analyzed using the ARDL Bounds Test, the Maki Cointegration Test, and the FMOLS Coefficient Estimator methods. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in the budget deficit corresponds to a 0.41-unit decrease in the current account deficit. In other words, the findings of this study do not support the Traditional view, which posits that a budget deficit leads to a widening current account deficit, nor do they align with the Ricardian perspective, which asserts that the budget deficit has no effect on the current account deficit. Moreover, the results largely contrast with those of previous empirical studies in the existing literature. It is likely that the results for Türkiye during the 19902023 period are primarily driven by the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Additional analyses suggest that the budget deficit induces a real depreciation of the national currency and an increase in private savings. Specifically, for every one-unit increase in the budget deficit, the real exchange rate rises by 0.10 units, while private savings increase by approximately 1.03 units. In conclusion, these econometric findings indicate that the budget deficit improves the current account balance through the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Finally, when examining the trends in the budget deficit, current account deficit, private savings, and real exchange rate indicators in Türkiye over the study period, the observed patterns appear to be consistent with the econometric findings.

 The effect of the budget deficit on various macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, and the current account deficit, continues to be a subject of ongoing debate in the literature. Among these indicators, the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit is typically analyzed within the frameworks of the Traditional Keynesian and Ricardian perspectives. The Traditional view suggests that an increase in the budget deficit leads to a widening of the current account deficit, whereas the Ricardian perspective argues that the budget deficit has no significant effect on the current account deficit. In this context, the present study aims to investigate the impact of the budget deficit on the current account deficit in Türkiye. To achieve this objective, annual data from 1990 to 2023 are analyzed using the ARDL Bounds Test, the Maki Cointegration Test, and the FMOLS Coefficient Estimator methods. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in the budget deficit corresponds to a 0.41-unit decrease in the current account deficit. In other words, the findings of this study do not support the Traditional view, which posits that a budget deficit leads to a widening current account deficit, nor do they align with the Ricardian perspective, which asserts that the budget deficit has no effect on the current account deficit. Moreover, the results largely contrast with those of previous empirical studies in the existing literature. It is likely that the results for Türkiye during the 19902023 period are primarily driven by the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Additional analyses suggest that the budget deficit induces a real depreciation of the national currency and an increase in private savings. Specifically, for every one-unit increase in the budget deficit, the real exchange rate rises by 0.10 units, while private savings increase by approximately 1.03 units. In conclusion, these econometric findings indicate that the budget deficit improves the current account balance through the real exchange rate and private savings channels. Finally, when examining the trends in the budget deficit, current account deficit, private savings, and real exchange rate indicators in Türkiye over the study period, the observed patterns appear to be consistent with the econometric findings.

 Bütçe açığının ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon ve cari açık gibi çeşitli makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkisi literatürde güncelliğini koruyan bir tartışmadır. Bu makroekonomik göstergelerden cari açık üzerinde bütçe açığının etkisi genelde Geleneksel Keynesyen ve Ricardocu Görüş çerçevesinde ele alınmaktadır. Geleneksel görüş bütçe açığındaki artışın cari açığı artırıcı etkisi olduğunu ileri sürerken, Ricardocu Görüş bütçe açığının cari açık üzerinde etkili olmadığını iddia eder. Bu tartışma bağlamında bu çalışma da Türkiyede bütçe açığının cari işlemler açığı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmayı amaçlar. Bu amaçla çalışma, 1990-2023 dönemine ilişkin yıllık verileri ARDL Sınır Testi, Maki Eşbütünleşme Testi ve FMOLS Katsayı Tahmincisi yöntemleriyle analiz eder. Sonuçlar, bütçe açığındaki 1 birimlik bir artış karşısında cari açıkta 0.41birimlik bir azalmanın ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Bir başka ifadeyle çalışmanın bulguları bütçe açığının cari açığa neden olacağını ileri süren geleneksel görüş ile bütçe açığının cari açığı etkilemeyeceğini iddia eden Ricardocu yaklaşımı desteklememektedir. Ayrıca sonuçlar, literatürdeki ampirik çalışmaların ortaya koyduğu bulguları da büyük ölçüde desteklememektedir. Türkiye için 1990-2023 dönemi için elde edilen bu sonucun büyük ölçüde reel döviz kuru ve özel tasarruflar kanalıyla ortaya çıkmış olması muhtemeldir. Çünkü gerçekleştirilen ek analizler sonucunda, bütçe açığının ulusal parayı reel olarak değersizleştirdiği ve özel tasarrufları ise artırdığı görülmektedir. Bu ek analizin sonuçlarına göre, bütçe açığındaki 1 birimlik artışa karşılık reel döviz kurunda 0.10luk; özel tasarruflarda ise yaklaşık 1.03lük bir artış meydana gelmektedir. Bu ekonometrik sonuçlar özetle, bütçe açığının reel döviz kuru ve özel tasarruflar kanalıyla cari dengeyi iyileştirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Son olarak, Türkiyede bütçe açığı, cari açık, özel tasarruf ve reel döviz kuru göstergelerinin çalışmanın kapsadığı dönemdeki seyrine bakıldığında da elde edilen ekonometrik bulgularla paralellik gösterdiğini söylemek mümkündür.

Makale detayları

REVISITING THE EFFECT OF BUDGET DEFICIT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM 1990 TO 2023

Yazarlar:

Burak Doğangün | Yasin Karadeniz

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 57, pp.1885-1909

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355317

pISSN:

1304-5318

Budget Deficit

Current Account Deficit

Real Exchange Rate

ARDL Bounds Test

Maki Cointegration TestBütçe açığı

cari açık

reel döviz kuru

ARDL sınır testi

Maki eşbütünleşme testi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Burak Doğangün | Yasin Karadeniz

Yayıncı: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar: Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Maliye Politikası

Dergi: Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 57, pp.1885-1909

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001355317

pISSN: 1304-5318

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Burak Doğangün | Yasin Karadeniz

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri | Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 57, pp.1885-1909

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355317

pISSN:

1304-5318