ASYMMETRIC PASS-ON EFFECT OF REAL CURRENCY ON FOREIGN TRADE IN TURKISH ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS OF THE MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION

Hilal Şeker

Makale detayları

ASYMMETRIC PASS-ON EFFECT OF REAL CURRENCY ON FOREIGN TRADE IN TURKISH ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS OF THE MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION

Yazarlar:

Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi Politik Teorisi

Dergi:

Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.127-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351072

pISSN:

2146-1740

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 One of the fundamental reasons of current deficit problem of Turkish economy is regarded as foreign trade deficit. Accurate demonstration of the effects of nominal currency increases or devaluations on foreign trade is crucial in terms of closure of these deficits in determination of practical policy set. Hence, in the present study, it was aimed to reveal whether the Marshall-Lerner Condition was satisfied for the Turkish economy. To that end, the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL method was employed for the analysis covering the period of 1980-2022. Our results suggested for the concerned period that the Marshall-Lerner Condition was not satisfied for the Turkish economy in terms of both short and long term. Accordingly, our suggestion was to reduce Turkiyes foreign trade deficit through different monetary and financial policy practices other than the currency rate-focused strategies.

 One of the fundamental reasons of current deficit problem of Turkish economy is regarded as foreign trade deficit. Accurate demonstration of the effects of nominal currency increases or devaluations on foreign trade is crucial in terms of closure of these deficits in determination of practical policy set. Hence, in the present study, it was aimed to reveal whether the Marshall-Lerner Condition was satisfied for the Turkish economy. To that end, the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL method was employed for the analysis covering the period of 1980-2022. Our results suggested for the concerned period that the Marshall-Lerner Condition was not satisfied for the Turkish economy in terms of both short and long term. Accordingly, our suggestion was to reduce Turkiyes foreign trade deficit through different monetary and financial policy practices other than the currency rate-focused strategies.

 One of the fundamental reasons of current deficit problem of Turkish economy is regarded as foreign trade deficit. Accurate demonstration of the effects of nominal currency increases or devaluations on foreign trade is crucial in terms of closure of these deficits in determination of practical policy set. Hence, in the present study, it was aimed to reveal whether the Marshall-Lerner Condition was satisfied for the Turkish economy. To that end, the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag NARDL method was employed for the analysis covering the period of 1980-2022. Our results suggested for the concerned period that the Marshall-Lerner Condition was not satisfied for the Turkish economy in terms of both short and long term. Accordingly, our suggestion was to reduce Turkiyes foreign trade deficit through different monetary and financial policy practices other than the currency rate-focused strategies.

 Türkiye ekonomisinde kronikleşmiş cari açığın temel nedenlerinden biri dış ticaret açıklarıdır. Bu açıkların kapatılmasında nominal kur artışlarının ya da devalüasyonun, dış ticaret üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymak, uygulanacak politika setinin tespitinde oldukça önemlidir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için Marshall-Lerner koşulunun sağlanıp sağlanmadığını ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1980-2022 dönemi çalışmaya esas zaman periyodunu oluşturmakta olup, kullanılan yöntem Doğrusal Olmayan Sınır Testi NARDL metodudur. Çalışmanın bulguları araştırmaya esas dönem için Türkiye ekonomisinde Marshall-Lerner Koşulunun kısa ve uzun dönemde geçerli olmadığı yönündedir. Dolayısıyla Türkiyede dış ticaret açıklarını kapatmada, fiyat dışı stratejiler ve farklı para ve maliye politika setleri uygulamaya konmalıdır denilebilir.

Makale detayları

ASYMMETRIC PASS-ON EFFECT OF REAL CURRENCY ON FOREIGN TRADE IN TURKISH ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS OF THE MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITION

Yazarlar:

Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi Politik Teorisi

Dergi:

Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.127-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351072

pISSN:

2146-1740

Keywords: Marshall-Lerner Condition

Devaluation

Foreign Trade

NARDLMarshall-Lerner Koşulu

Devalüasyon

Dış ticaret

NARDL

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı: Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi Politik Teorisi

Dergi: Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.127-150

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001351072

pISSN: 2146-1740

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Hilal Şeker

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi Politik Teorisi

Dergi:

Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.127-150

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001351072

pISSN:

2146-1740