MONETARY, MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AND HOUSING CYCLES: EXPLORING THE NEXUS IN TURKEY

Ali DOĞRUEL; Umurcan POLAT

Makale detayları

MONETARY, MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AND HOUSING CYCLES: EXPLORING THE NEXUS IN TURKEY

Yazarlar:

Ali DOĞRUEL | Umurcan POLAT

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Dergi:

Marmara University Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 2015 Vol.37 Issue 2, pp.233-260

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2016

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000536039

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

pISSN:

2587-2672

Özet:

 


Given the pro-cyclicality of the financial cycles on the business cycles, it is ofimportance to analyze whether the use of the traditional monetary policy instruments along with the prudential responsibilities result in the prevention of unsustainable financial cycles e.g., housing cycles. Still, there is not enough empirical evidence regarding the exploration of the nexus between housing variables and monetary – macroprudential policy rules. Observing the developments in housing market in Turkey, that is, the simultaneous increase in both house prices and residential investments in the last decade, the nexus between housing market and macro economy deserves a further investigation. 

Accordingly, a new Keynesian DSGE model is estimated with Turkish datafor a period 2010-2014 using Bayesian techniques in this study. Results reveal that arguments for a monetary policy regime that produces aggregate price stability will, as a byproduct, tend to promote stability of housing markets don’t fully hold in the estimation. It can also be stated that the monetary policy rules with existing prudential policy instruments may not result in prevention of further housing “bubbles”. The variance-shock decomposition analyses show that demand and supply shocks dramatically determine the cycles of the real housing prices and residential investment whereas the monetary policy shocks and shocks in central bank’s inflation target do not explain the volatility of the housing variables.

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Makale detayları

MONETARY, MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AND HOUSING CYCLES: EXPLORING THE NEXUS IN TURKEY

Yazarlar: Ali DOĞRUEL | Umurcan POLAT

Yayıncı: Marmara University

Dergi: Marmara University Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 2015 Vol.37 Issue 2, pp.233-260

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2016

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2000536039

Sıklık: İki Yıllık

pISSN: 2587-2672

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ali DOĞRUEL | Umurcan POLAT

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Dergi:

Marmara University Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 2015 Vol.37 Issue 2, pp.233-260

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2016

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000536039

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

pISSN:

2587-2672