AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VALUE OF PMI AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR GROWTH IN PREDICTING OVERALL ECONOMIC OUTPUT (GDP) IN SOUTH AFRICA

Daniel Francois MEYER; Thomas HABANABAKİZE

doi:https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127

Makale detayları

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VALUE OF PMI AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR GROWTH IN PREDICTING OVERALL ECONOMIC OUTPUT (GDP) IN SOUTH AFRICA

Yazarlar:

Daniel Francois MEYER | Thomas HABANABAKİZE

Yayıncı:

Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Derneği

Ana Başlıklar:

Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi:

International Journal of eBusiness and eGovernment Studies 2019 Vol.11 Issue 2, pp.191-206

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

11/2019

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000810281

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

eISSN:

2146-0744

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127

Özet:

 


Macroeconomic indexes are useful tools in forecasting long and short-run changes in the economy. The purpose of this study is to assess the usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and changes in the manufacturing sector as predictors of economic output. This study is quantitative in nature and employed an ARDL econometric model, vector error correction (VEC) and Granger causality approaches to determine the short and long-run relationships amongst the variables. The ARDL method was used as the variables had a mixture of stationarity at levels I(0) and first difference I(1). The model used economic output measured as GDP, as the dependent variable, while PMI, output in the manufacturing sector and CPI (used as the control variable) were the independent variables. Quarterly data sets were obtained from Statistics South Africa and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) for the period 2000 to 2017. Findings of the ARDL estimation revealed that the variables cointegrate in the long run and changes in manufacturing output had the highest impact on long-run economic growth of the three variables. In the short run, all independent variables had a significant impact on economic growth. The main findings from the Granger causality tests indicate that bi-directional causality exists between both PMI and GDP as well as between PMI and manufacturing output. Additionally, bi-directional causality was found between GDP and manufacturing, while CPI just causes manufacturing changes. The implications of the research is the confirmation of the importance of PMI, CPI and output of the manufacturing sector as indicators for changes in overall economic activity on a macro level.

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Makale detayları

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE VALUE OF PMI AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR GROWTH IN PREDICTING OVERALL ECONOMIC OUTPUT (GDP) IN SOUTH AFRICA

Yazarlar: Daniel Francois MEYER | Thomas HABANABAKİZE

Yayıncı: Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Derneği

Ana Başlıklar: Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi: International Journal of eBusiness and eGovernment Studies 2019 Vol.11 Issue 2, pp.191-206

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 11/2019

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2000810281

Sıklık: İki Yıllık

eISSN: 2146-0744

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Daniel Francois MEYER | Thomas HABANABAKİZE

Yayıncı:

Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Derneği

Ana Başlıklar:

Sosyoloji & antropoloji

Dergi:

International Journal of eBusiness and eGovernment Studies 2019 Vol.11 Issue 2, pp.191-206

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

11/2019

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2000810281

Sıklık:

İki Yıllık

eISSN:

2146-0744

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34111/ijebeg.20191127