Determinants of Credit Card Expenditures in Turkey and The Effects of Inflation Expectations on These Expenditures

K. Batu Tunay

Makale detayları

Determinants of Credit Card Expenditures in Turkey and The Effects of Inflation Expectations on These Expenditures

Yazarlar:

K. Batu Tunay

Yayıncı:

Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University

Dergi:

Bankacılık ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.100-122

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295915

pISSN:

2148-4090

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Like many contemporary economies, credit cards are a very important part of the payment system in Turkey and have become an indispensable payment tool for households in recent years. It can be said that these cards are an important part of consumer loans, due to their ability to credit expenditures. Because of these features, the analysis of expenditures made with credit cards and the determination of the variables affecting these expenditures are extremely important in terms of monetary policies and the banking system. In our study, using quarterly and monthly data covering the years 2005 and 2022, the determinants of credit card expenditures were investigated, and the changes in card expenditures caused by the changes in explanatory variables were tried to be determined. In the analysis process, besides the observable variables, some non-observable variables were also used. Variables that are not directly observable such as inflation expectations and expectation errors were calculated with state-space models and provided input for other analyses. Although some results of alternative models are contradictory, it has been observed that credit card expenditures are sensitive to inflation and wage increase expectation errors and changes in disposable income level. In addition, the strong persistency of credit card expenditures is attributed to the importance of installment expenditures in total card expenditures.

 Like many contemporary economies, credit cards are a very important part of the payment system in Turkey and have become an indispensable payment tool for households in recent years. It can be said that these cards are an important part of consumer loans, due to their ability to credit expenditures. Because of these features, the analysis of expenditures made with credit cards and the determination of the variables affecting these expenditures are extremely important in terms of monetary policies and the banking system. In our study, using quarterly and monthly data covering the years 2005 and 2022, the determinants of credit card expenditures were investigated, and the changes in card expenditures caused by the changes in explanatory variables were tried to be determined. In the analysis process, besides the observable variables, some non-observable variables were also used. Variables that are not directly observable such as inflation expectations and expectation errors were calculated with state-space models and provided input for other analyses. Although some results of alternative models are contradictory, it has been observed that credit card expenditures are sensitive to inflation and wage increase expectation errors and changes in disposable income level. In addition, the strong persistency of credit card expenditures is attributed to the importance of installment expenditures in total card expenditures.

 Like many contemporary economies, credit cards are a very important part of the payment system in Turkey and have become an indispensable payment tool for households in recent years. It can be said that these cards are an important part of consumer loans, due to their ability to credit expenditures. Because of these features, the analysis of expenditures made with credit cards and the determination of the variables affecting these expenditures are extremely important in terms of monetary policies and the banking system. In our study, using quarterly and monthly data covering the years 2005 and 2022, the determinants of credit card expenditures were investigated, and the changes in card expenditures caused by the changes in explanatory variables were tried to be determined. In the analysis process, besides the observable variables, some non-observable variables were also used. Variables that are not directly observable such as inflation expectations and expectation errors were calculated with state-space models and provided input for other analyses. Although some results of alternative models are contradictory, it has been observed that credit card expenditures are sensitive to inflation and wage increase expectation errors and changes in disposable income level. In addition, the strong persistency of credit card expenditures is attributed to the importance of installment expenditures in total card expenditures.

 Birçok çağdaş ekonomi gibi Türkiyede de kredi kartları ödeme sisteminin çok önemli bir parçasıdır ve hane halkı için son yıllarda vazgeçilmez bir ödeme aracına dönüşmüştür. Bu kartların harcamaları kredilendirme özelliği nedeniyle, bireysel banka kredilerinin de önemli bir parçası oldukları söylenebilir. Bahsi geçen özelliklerinden ötürü, kredi kartlarıyla yapılan harcamaların analizi ve bu harcamaları etkileyen değişkenlerin belirlenmesi para politikaları ve banka sistemi açısından son derece önemlidir. Çalışmamızda 2005 ve 2022 yıllarını kapsayan üç aylık ve aylık veriler kullanılarak, kredi kartı harcamalarının belirleyicileri araştırılmış, açıklayıcı değişkenlerdeki değişimlerin kart harcamaları üzerinde yol açtığı değişimler saptanmaya çalışılmıştır. Analiz sürecinde gözlenebilen değişkenler yanında doğrudan gözlenemeyen bazı değişkenler de kullanılmıştır. Doğrudan gözlenemeyen değişkenler örneğin enflasyon beklentileri ve beklenti hataları gibi, durum-uzay modelleri ile hesaplanmış ve bunlar diğer analizlere girdi teşkil etmiştir. Alternatif modellerin bazı sonuçları çelişkili olsa da kredi kartı harcamalarının enflasyon ve ücret artışı beklenti hataları ile harcanabilir gelir düzeyindeki değişimlere duyarlı olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca kredi kartı harcamalarının güçlü bir geçmişe bağlılık sergilemesi, kartla yapılan toplam harcamalar içinde taksitli harcamaların önemine bağlanmıştır.

Makale detayları

Determinants of Credit Card Expenditures in Turkey and The Effects of Inflation Expectations on These Expenditures

Yazarlar:

K. Batu Tunay

Yayıncı:

Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University

Dergi:

Bankacılık ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.100-122

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295915

pISSN:

2148-4090

Consumption expenditures

credit cards

state-space models

multivariate regression

autoregressive models.Tüketim harcamaları

kredi kartları

durum-uzay modelleri

çok değişkenli regresyon

ardışık bağlanımlı modeller.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: K. Batu Tunay

Yayıncı: Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University

Dergi: Bankacılık ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.100-122

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001295915

pISSN: 2148-4090

Sayı

Yazarlar:

K. Batu Tunay

Yayıncı:

Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University

Dergi:

Bankacılık ve Finansal Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.100-122

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295915

pISSN:

2148-4090