Dollarization and the Real Exchange Rate Nexus in Türkiye’s Economy

Ahmet Metin Çamdibi; Server Demirci

Makale detayları

Dollarization and the Real Exchange Rate Nexus in Türkiye’s Economy

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Metin Çamdibi | Server Demirci

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.199-207

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001324486

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Money has three main functions, serving as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Dollarization is defined as having foreign currencies replace andor accompany local currency in fulfilling these functions. Dollarization has the potential of affecting economies in various ways. The existence of dollarization is also an important issue regarding its effect on increasing economic fragility. Exchange rate fluctuations cause financial crises, while dollarization boosts the effects of economic crises. The relationship between dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations has always attracted the attention of both policy makers and researchers. The combined presence of dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations makes economies prone to inflationary risks due to depreciation of local currency. Therefore, studies should consider the significance of inflation. Inflation-adjusted real exchange rate data are useful for an accurate analysis in this regard. The Turkish economy has numerous observations on dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations since the beginning of its transition to financial liberalization in the 1980s. The aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis in Türkiye marked the start of a new era of stability, as significant successes were gained over controlling inflation, accompanied by legislative regulations through the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. However, fundamental issues such as dollarization, exchange rate fluctuations, and inflation still maintain their importance in the Turkish economy these days. This study examines the relationship between dollarization and the real exchange rate over the January 2003-December 2023 period using the literatures newly added Fourier unit root and cointegration tests. The results of these tests have been implemented into the Granger causality test, which shows dollarization to affect the real exchange rate, while the real exchange rate does not cause dollarization.

 Money has three main functions, serving as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Dollarization is defined as having foreign currencies replace andor accompany local currency in fulfilling these functions. Dollarization has the potential of affecting economies in various ways. The existence of dollarization is also an important issue regarding its effect on increasing economic fragility. Exchange rate fluctuations cause financial crises, while dollarization boosts the effects of economic crises. The relationship between dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations has always attracted the attention of both policy makers and researchers. The combined presence of dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations makes economies prone to inflationary risks due to depreciation of local currency. Therefore, studies should consider the significance of inflation. Inflation-adjusted real exchange rate data are useful for an accurate analysis in this regard. The Turkish economy has numerous observations on dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations since the beginning of its transition to financial liberalization in the 1980s. The aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis in Türkiye marked the start of a new era of stability, as significant successes were gained over controlling inflation, accompanied by legislative regulations through the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. However, fundamental issues such as dollarization, exchange rate fluctuations, and inflation still maintain their importance in the Turkish economy these days. This study examines the relationship between dollarization and the real exchange rate over the January 2003-December 2023 period using the literatures newly added Fourier unit root and cointegration tests. The results of these tests have been implemented into the Granger causality test, which shows dollarization to affect the real exchange rate, while the real exchange rate does not cause dollarization.

 Money has three main functions, serving as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Dollarization is defined as having foreign currencies replace andor accompany local currency in fulfilling these functions. Dollarization has the potential of affecting economies in various ways. The existence of dollarization is also an important issue regarding its effect on increasing economic fragility. Exchange rate fluctuations cause financial crises, while dollarization boosts the effects of economic crises. The relationship between dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations has always attracted the attention of both policy makers and researchers. The combined presence of dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations makes economies prone to inflationary risks due to depreciation of local currency. Therefore, studies should consider the significance of inflation. Inflation-adjusted real exchange rate data are useful for an accurate analysis in this regard. The Turkish economy has numerous observations on dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations since the beginning of its transition to financial liberalization in the 1980s. The aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis in Türkiye marked the start of a new era of stability, as significant successes were gained over controlling inflation, accompanied by legislative regulations through the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. However, fundamental issues such as dollarization, exchange rate fluctuations, and inflation still maintain their importance in the Turkish economy these days. This study examines the relationship between dollarization and the real exchange rate over the January 2003-December 2023 period using the literatures newly added Fourier unit root and cointegration tests. The results of these tests have been implemented into the Granger causality test, which shows dollarization to affect the real exchange rate, while the real exchange rate does not cause dollarization.

 Para, bir değişim aracı olarak, bir hesap birimi olarak ve bir değer saklama aracı olarak temelde üç ana fonksiyon ifa etmektedir. Bu fonksiyonlarını yerine getirmek üzere yabancı paranın ulusal para yerine veya ulusal para ile birlikte kullanılması dolarizasyon olarak ifade edilmektedir. Dolarizasyon, ülke ekonomilerini farklı yönlerden etkileme potansiyeline sahiptir. Ayrıca dolarizasyonun varlığı, ekonomilerin kırılganlığını arttırması açısından önemli bir konudur. Ekonomik krizlerin etkileri dolarizasyon ile artarken döviz kuru dalgalanmaları finansal krizlere yol açmaktadır. Dolarizasyon ile döviz kuru dalgalanmaları arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması daima politika yapıcılar ve araştırmacıların dikkatini çeken bir konu olmuştur. Dolarizasyon ve döviz kuru dalgalanmalarının bir arada gerçekleşmesi ekonomileri yerel paranın değer yitirmesine bağlı enflasyonist risklere açık hale getirmektedir. Bu yüzden dolarizasyon üzerine yapılan çalışmalarda enflasyonun belirleyiciliği dikkate alınmalıdır. Enflasyondan arındırılmış reel kur verileri bu noktada doğru bir analiz için kullanışlıdır. Türkiye ekonomisi finansal serbestleşmeye geçtiği 1980lerden itibaren dolarizasyon ve döviz kuru dalgalanmaları için çok sayıda gözlem barındırmaktadır. Türkiyede yaşanan 2001 finansal krizinin ardından para otoritesinin düzenlemeleri eşliğinde ekonomide yeni bir istikrar dönemi başlamış ve enflasyonun kontrol altına alınmasında önemli başarılar elde edilmiştir. Ne var ki, günümüze değin Türkiye ekonomisinde dolarizasyon, yabancı kur oynaklıkları ve enflasyon gibi temel konular önemini korumaya devam etmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinde dolarizasyon reel kur ilişkisinin araştırıldığı 2003 Ocak ile 2023 Aralık dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada literatüre yeni katılan Fourier terimli birim kök ve eş bütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Bu testlerden elde edilen bulgular kullanılarak yapılan Granger nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre dolarizasyon reel kurun nedeni iken, reel kurun dolarizasyonun nedeni olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Makale detayları

Dollarization and the Real Exchange Rate Nexus in Türkiye’s Economy

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Metin Çamdibi | Server Demirci

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.199-207

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001324486

pISSN:

2651-396X

Dollarization

exchange rate fluctuations

real exchange rate

inflation

Fourier testDolarizasyon

döviz kuru dalgalanmaları

reel kur

enflasyon

Fourier testi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Ahmet Metin Çamdibi | Server Demirci

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.199-207

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001324486

pISSN: 2651-396X

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Metin Çamdibi | Server Demirci

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometri (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 40, pp.199-207

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001324486

pISSN:

2651-396X