Unemployment Hysteresis in E7 Countries: Evidence from Linear, Nonlinear and Fourier Unit Root Tests

Aslı Özen Atabey

Makale detayları

Unemployment Hysteresis in E7 Countries: Evidence from Linear, Nonlinear and Fourier Unit Root Tests

Yazarlar:

Aslı Özen Atabey

Yayıncı:

Gumushane University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.27-41

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299266

pISSN:

2822-5570

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Unemployment, which ranks first among macroeconomic problems for all countries economies, is also a serious problem for seven developing countries, which are called E7 Countries, namely China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey, where the rate of development is high. Unemployment rates, which are tried to be reduced by increasing both production activities and employment opportunities, increase significantly during crisis periods and may not return to their previous levels after this shock. In this study, which was carried out to investigate this situation, which is expressed as unemployment hysteresis, the total unemployment rates of youth, women and men for the period 1991-2021 in E7 countries were analyzed. In the study, fourier ADF and Fourier KPSS unit root tests, which are among the most up-to-date tests, were applied, as well as CSR and LeeStrazicich unit root tests, according to the linearity status of the time series created on a country basis. When the unit root tests in question are evaluated as a whole, it can be said that there is an unemployment hysteresis effect in almost every country covered in the analysis.

 Unemployment, which ranks first among macroeconomic problems for all countries economies, is also a serious problem for seven developing countries, which are called E7 Countries, namely China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey, where the rate of development is high. Unemployment rates, which are tried to be reduced by increasing both production activities and employment opportunities, increase significantly during crisis periods and may not return to their previous levels after this shock. In this study, which was carried out to investigate this situation, which is expressed as unemployment hysteresis, the total unemployment rates of youth, women and men for the period 1991-2021 in E7 countries were analyzed. In the study, fourier ADF and Fourier KPSS unit root tests, which are among the most up-to-date tests, were applied, as well as CSR and LeeStrazicich unit root tests, according to the linearity status of the time series created on a country basis. When the unit root tests in question are evaluated as a whole, it can be said that there is an unemployment hysteresis effect in almost every country covered in the analysis.

 Unemployment, which ranks first among macroeconomic problems for all countries economies, is also a serious problem for seven developing countries, which are called E7 Countries, namely China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey, where the rate of development is high. Unemployment rates, which are tried to be reduced by increasing both production activities and employment opportunities, increase significantly during crisis periods and may not return to their previous levels after this shock. In this study, which was carried out to investigate this situation, which is expressed as unemployment hysteresis, the total unemployment rates of youth, women and men for the period 1991-2021 in E7 countries were analyzed. In the study, fourier ADF and Fourier KPSS unit root tests, which are among the most up-to-date tests, were applied, as well as CSR and LeeStrazicich unit root tests, according to the linearity status of the time series created on a country basis. When the unit root tests in question are evaluated as a whole, it can be said that there is an unemployment hysteresis effect in almost every country covered in the analysis.

 Tüm ülke ekonomileri için makroekonomik sorunlar arasında ilk sıralarda yer alan işsizlik, gelişme hızının yüksek olduğu Çin, Hindistan, Brezilya, Meksika, Endonezya, Rusya ve Türkiye olmak üzere E7 Ülkeleri olarak ifade edilen gelişmekte olan yedi ülke için de ciddi bir sorun olmaktadır. Gerek üretim faaliyetlerinin gerekse de istihdam olanaklarının artırılmasıyla azaltılmaya çalışılan işsizlik oranları kriz dönemlerinde bariz bir şekilde artış göstermekte ve yaşanan bu şok sonrasında tekrar eski düzeyine dönmeyebilmektedir. İşsizlik histerisi olarak ifade edilen bu durumu araştırmak amacıyla yapılan bu çalışmada, E7 ülkelerinde 1991-2021 dönemi için toplam, genç, kadın ve erkek işsizlik oranları analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada ülke bazında oluşturulan zaman serilerine, doğrusallık durumlarına göre KSS ve Lee-Strazicich birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra en güncel testler arasında yer alan Fourier ADF ve Fourier KPSS birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Söz konusu birim kök testleri bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde analiz kapsamında ele alınan neredeyse her ülkede işsizlik histerisi etkisinin bulunduğu söylenebilmektedir.

Makale detayları

Unemployment Hysteresis in E7 Countries: Evidence from Linear, Nonlinear and Fourier Unit Root Tests

Yazarlar:

Aslı Özen Atabey

Yayıncı:

Gumushane University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.27-41

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299266

pISSN:

2822-5570

Unemployment hysteresis

E7 Countries

Fourier unit root testsİşsizlik Histerisi

E7 Ülkeleri

Fourier Birim Kök Testleri

Sayı

Makale detayları

Unemployment Hysteresis in E7 Countries: Evidence from Linear, Nonlinear and Fourier Unit Root Tests

Yazarlar: Aslı Özen Atabey

Yayıncı: Gumushane University

Ana Başlıklar: İstihdam

Dergi: Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.27-41

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001299266

pISSN: 2822-5570

Unemployment hysteresis

E7 Countries

Fourier unit root testsİşsizlik Histerisi

E7 Ülkeleri

Fourier Birim Kök Testleri

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Aslı Özen Atabey

Yayıncı:

Gumushane University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstihdam

Dergi:

Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi Vol.12 Issue Özel Sayı, pp.27-41

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299266

pISSN:

2822-5570