ARIMA-Based Projections for Tea Agriculture in Türkiye (2025–2030)

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu; Avni Birinci; Ceyda Akdemir

Makale detayları

ARIMA-Based Projections for Tea Agriculture in Türkiye (2025–2030)

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu | Avni Birinci | Ceyda Akdemir

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy | Marketing in Agricultural Management

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.12 Issue 4, pp.1129-1138

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001360421

pISSN:

2148-3647

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study employs time series analysis to examine the dynamics of tea production in Türkiye. Data on tea production, cultivated area, and yield from 1988 to 2024 were analyzed separately to forecast trends in production volume, productivity, and cultivated area for the 20252030 period. The ARIMA AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model, widely used in time series forecasting, was applied. Tea cultivation in Türkiye is predominantly concentrated in the Eastern Black Sea Region, particularly in the provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin, and Giresun. Based on the national data, the findings suggest that the cultivated area is likely to decline from 810,000 hectares in 2024 to approximately 793,000 hectares by 2030. In contrast, production volume is projected to increase from 1.41 million tons to 1.55 million tons, while yield is expected to rise from 1,745 kgha to 1,935 kgha over the same period. These projections indicate a need to enhance land productivity through the adoption of modern agricultural practices. Promoting agricultural technologies and strengthening extension services and farmer education are crucial for sustaining productivity. Moreover, Türkiye could have a greater say in world production if precautionary policies are implemented against the effects of climate change, which has been frequently mentioned recently, and if the forecasts are near to accurate.

 This study employs time series analysis to examine the dynamics of tea production in Türkiye. Data on tea production, cultivated area, and yield from 1988 to 2024 were analyzed separately to forecast trends in production volume, productivity, and cultivated area for the 20252030 period. The ARIMA AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model, widely used in time series forecasting, was applied. Tea cultivation in Türkiye is predominantly concentrated in the Eastern Black Sea Region, particularly in the provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin, and Giresun. Based on the national data, the findings suggest that the cultivated area is likely to decline from 810,000 hectares in 2024 to approximately 793,000 hectares by 2030. In contrast, production volume is projected to increase from 1.41 million tons to 1.55 million tons, while yield is expected to rise from 1,745 kgha to 1,935 kgha over the same period. These projections indicate a need to enhance land productivity through the adoption of modern agricultural practices. Promoting agricultural technologies and strengthening extension services and farmer education are crucial for sustaining productivity. Moreover, Türkiye could have a greater say in world production if precautionary policies are implemented against the effects of climate change, which has been frequently mentioned recently, and if the forecasts are near to accurate.

 This study employs time series analysis to examine the dynamics of tea production in Türkiye. Data on tea production, cultivated area, and yield from 1988 to 2024 were analyzed separately to forecast trends in production volume, productivity, and cultivated area for the 20252030 period. The ARIMA AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model, widely used in time series forecasting, was applied. Tea cultivation in Türkiye is predominantly concentrated in the Eastern Black Sea Region, particularly in the provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin, and Giresun. Based on the national data, the findings suggest that the cultivated area is likely to decline from 810,000 hectares in 2024 to approximately 793,000 hectares by 2030. In contrast, production volume is projected to increase from 1.41 million tons to 1.55 million tons, while yield is expected to rise from 1,745 kgha to 1,935 kgha over the same period. These projections indicate a need to enhance land productivity through the adoption of modern agricultural practices. Promoting agricultural technologies and strengthening extension services and farmer education are crucial for sustaining productivity. Moreover, Türkiye could have a greater say in world production if precautionary policies are implemented against the effects of climate change, which has been frequently mentioned recently, and if the forecasts are near to accurate.

 This study employs time series analysis to examine the dynamics of tea production in Türkiye. Data on tea production, cultivated area, and yield from 1988 to 2024 were analyzed separately to forecast trends in production volume, productivity, and cultivated area for the 20252030 period. The ARIMA AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model, widely used in time series forecasting, was applied. Tea cultivation in Türkiye is predominantly concentrated in the Eastern Black Sea Region, particularly in the provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin, and Giresun. Based on the national data, the findings suggest that the cultivated area is likely to decline from 810,000 hectares in 2024 to approximately 793,000 hectares by 2030. In contrast, production volume is projected to increase from 1.41 million tons to 1.55 million tons, while yield is expected to rise from 1,745 kgha to 1,935 kgha over the same period. These projections indicate a need to enhance land productivity through the adoption of modern agricultural practices. Promoting agricultural technologies and strengthening extension services and farmer education are crucial for sustaining productivity. Moreover, Türkiye could have a greater say in world production if precautionary policies are implemented against the effects of climate change, which has been frequently mentioned recently, and if the forecasts are near to accurate.

Makale detayları

ARIMA-Based Projections for Tea Agriculture in Türkiye (2025–2030)

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu | Avni Birinci | Ceyda Akdemir

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy | Marketing in Agricultural Management

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.12 Issue 4, pp.1129-1138

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001360421

pISSN:

2148-3647

Tea

Eastern Black Sea

Production Volume

Sayı

Makale detayları

ARIMA-Based Projections for Tea Agriculture in Türkiye (2025–2030)

Yazarlar: Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu | Avni Birinci | Ceyda Akdemir

Yayıncı: Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar: Agricultural Policy | Marketing in Agricultural Management

Dergi: Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.12 Issue 4, pp.1129-1138

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001360421

pISSN: 2148-3647

Tea

Eastern Black Sea

Production Volume

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu | Avni Birinci | Ceyda Akdemir

Yayıncı:

Mevlüt AKÇURA

Ana Başlıklar:

Agricultural Policy | Marketing in Agricultural Management

Dergi:

Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences Vol.12 Issue 4, pp.1129-1138

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001360421

pISSN:

2148-3647