Determinants of Producer Inflation of Agricultural Products in Turkey: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach

Hatice Bozkurt; Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu

Makale detayları

Determinants of Producer Inflation of Agricultural Products in Turkey: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach

Yazarlar:

Hatice Bozkurt | Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Para Politikası

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.8 Issue 3, pp.620-636

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328065

pISSN:

2587-2567

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The Turkish economy is experiencing an inflationary period driven by demand, cost and price inflation since 2018. As in all sectors of the economy, serious inflation levels have been reached in the agricultural sector. In this study, the determinants of inflation were examined through the producer price index of agricultural products between 2010:M1 and 2024:M2. Explanatory variables are food consumer price index, dollar exchange rate, refined oil price, chemical fertilizer and nitrogen price. In addition, the dummy variable representing the structural break was created to include the radical change in monetary policy in Türkiye through interest rates. These variables were analyzed using the Bootstrap ARDL model with Fourier functions. The cointegration relationship between the variables was determined in the model. In the long and short term, increases in the consumer price index of food products have positively affected the agricultural producer price index. The change in monetary policy has a significant and positive effect in both the short and long term. This implies that interest policy has an inflationary effect. The rise in chemical fertilizer and nitrogen prices increased the producer price index of agricultural products. Agriculture-PPI was positively affected by the lagged values of refined oil prices in the short-term. The exchange rate variable had a significant and positive effect in the short term. The model indicates that short-term deviations in the agriculture-PPI will reach equilibrium in approximately 3.5 months. Agricultural-PPI inflation in Türkiye is caused by instability in monetary policy, exchange rate, input and consumer prices.

 The Turkish economy is experiencing an inflationary period driven by demand, cost and price inflation since 2018. As in all sectors of the economy, serious inflation levels have been reached in the agricultural sector. In this study, the determinants of inflation were examined through the producer price index of agricultural products between 2010:M1 and 2024:M2. Explanatory variables are food consumer price index, dollar exchange rate, refined oil price, chemical fertilizer and nitrogen price. In addition, the dummy variable representing the structural break was created to include the radical change in monetary policy in Türkiye through interest rates. These variables were analyzed using the Bootstrap ARDL model with Fourier functions. The cointegration relationship between the variables was determined in the model. In the long and short term, increases in the consumer price index of food products have positively affected the agricultural producer price index. The change in monetary policy has a significant and positive effect in both the short and long term. This implies that interest policy has an inflationary effect. The rise in chemical fertilizer and nitrogen prices increased the producer price index of agricultural products. Agriculture-PPI was positively affected by the lagged values of refined oil prices in the short-term. The exchange rate variable had a significant and positive effect in the short term. The model indicates that short-term deviations in the agriculture-PPI will reach equilibrium in approximately 3.5 months. Agricultural-PPI inflation in Türkiye is caused by instability in monetary policy, exchange rate, input and consumer prices.

 The Turkish economy is experiencing an inflationary period driven by demand, cost and price inflation since 2018. As in all sectors of the economy, serious inflation levels have been reached in the agricultural sector. In this study, the determinants of inflation were examined through the producer price index of agricultural products between 2010:M1 and 2024:M2. Explanatory variables are food consumer price index, dollar exchange rate, refined oil price, chemical fertilizer and nitrogen price. In addition, the dummy variable representing the structural break was created to include the radical change in monetary policy in Türkiye through interest rates. These variables were analyzed using the Bootstrap ARDL model with Fourier functions. The cointegration relationship between the variables was determined in the model. In the long and short term, increases in the consumer price index of food products have positively affected the agricultural producer price index. The change in monetary policy has a significant and positive effect in both the short and long term. This implies that interest policy has an inflationary effect. The rise in chemical fertilizer and nitrogen prices increased the producer price index of agricultural products. Agriculture-PPI was positively affected by the lagged values of refined oil prices in the short-term. The exchange rate variable had a significant and positive effect in the short term. The model indicates that short-term deviations in the agriculture-PPI will reach equilibrium in approximately 3.5 months. Agricultural-PPI inflation in Türkiye is caused by instability in monetary policy, exchange rate, input and consumer prices.

 : Türkiye ekonomisinde 2018 yılında belirginleşmeye başlayan talep, maliyet ve fiyat kaynaklı enflasyonist bir süreç yaşanmaktadır. Ekonominin tüm sektörlerinde olduğu gibi tarım sektöründe de ciddi enflasyon düzeylerine ulaşılmıştır. Bu çalışmada 2010:M1 ile 2024:M2 tarihleri arasında tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksi üzerinden enflasyonun belirleyicileri incelenmiştir. Açıklayıcı değişkenler; gıda tüketici fiyat endeksi, dolar kuru, rafine petrol fiyatı, kimyasal gübre ve azot fiyatı verileridir. Ayrıca yapısal kırılmayı temsil eden kukla değişken, Türkiyede para politikasında faiz yoluyla yapılan radikal değişimi içerecek şekilde oluşturulmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Fourier fonksiyonlu Bootstrap ARDL modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Kullanılan model sonucunda değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Uzun ve kısa dönemde, gıda ürünleri tüketici fiyat endeksindeki artışlar tarımsal üretici fiyat endeksini pozitif yönde etkilemiştir. Para politikasındaki değişim hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde anlamlı ve pozitif etkiye sahiptir. Bu durum faiz politikasının enflasyonist etkisinin var olduğunu göstermektedir. Kimyasal gübre ve azot fiyatlarındaki yükseliş, tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksini artırmıştır. Kısa dönem analiz sonuçlarına göre Tarım-ÜFE, rafine petrol fiyatlarının gecikmeli değerlerinden pozitif etkilenmiştir. Döviz kuru değişkeni kısa dönemde anlamlı ve pozitif etkiye sahip çıkmıştır. Model, tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksindeki kısa dönemli sapmaların yaklaşık 3,5 ay gibi bir sürede dengeye ulaşacağını göstermektedir. Bu analiz sonuçları Tarım-ÜFE enflasyonunun para politikası, döviz kuru, tarımsal girdi ve tüketici fiyatlarındaki istikrarsızlıktan kaynaklandığını göstermektedir.

Makale detayları

Determinants of Producer Inflation of Agricultural Products in Turkey: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach

Yazarlar:

Hatice Bozkurt | Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Para Politikası

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.8 Issue 3, pp.620-636

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328065

pISSN:

2587-2567

Agricultural PPI

Monetary Policy

Fourier Bootstrap ARDLTarım ÜFE

Para Politikası

Fourier Bootstrap ARDL

Sayı

Makale detayları

Determinants of Producer Inflation of Agricultural Products in Turkey: Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Approach

Yazarlar: Hatice Bozkurt | Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Makroekonomik Teori | Para Politikası

Dergi: Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.8 Issue 3, pp.620-636

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001328065

pISSN: 2587-2567

Agricultural PPI

Monetary Policy

Fourier Bootstrap ARDLTarım ÜFE

Para Politikası

Fourier Bootstrap ARDL

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Hatice Bozkurt | Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori | Para Politikası

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.8 Issue 3, pp.620-636

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001328065

pISSN:

2587-2567