The Impact of Mortality and Premium Margin on the Financial Performance of the Insurance Contract: IFRS 17 Framework

Çiğdem Lazoğlu; Uğur Karabey

Makale detayları

The Impact of Mortality and Premium Margin on the Financial Performance of the Insurance Contract: IFRS 17 Framework

Yazarlar:

Çiğdem Lazoğlu | Uğur Karabey

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstatistik (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 42, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001356012

pISSN:

2651-396X

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 17 is a regulation that introduces comprehensive and significant changes to the accounting for insurance contracts. Published by the International Accounting Standards Board IASB in 2017, this standard presents new accounting principles aimed at enhancing transparency and consistency in insurance companies financial statements. IFRS 17 introduces important innovations in the recognition, measurement, and reporting of insurance contracts, profoundly affecting the accounting processes for premiums and compensation liabilities. This study examines, within the framework of IFRS 17, the impact of mortality structures and premium margins on the financial performance of insurance contracts, focusing on eight countries with different demographic structures. The main objective of the research is to reveal how the innovations introduced by IFRS 17 reflect on the financial outcomes of insurance contracts in countries with diverse demographic profiles. To achieve this, the mortality structures of each country have been analysed using the widely used Lee-Carter model to model population dynamics. The resulting mortality forecasts were supported by simulations of life probabilities and life expectancies, designed to reflect potential demographic changes over the next 20 years. Using the simulation data, a simple application in the field of life insurance was carried out, which was used to model future cash flows and financial performance in accordance with IFRS 17s accounting principles. The findings of the study reveal that changes in mortality rates and premium margins have statistically significant effects on the financial performance of insurance contracts.

 The International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 17 is a regulation that introduces comprehensive and significant changes to the accounting for insurance contracts. Published by the International Accounting Standards Board IASB in 2017, this standard presents new accounting principles aimed at enhancing transparency and consistency in insurance companies financial statements. IFRS 17 introduces important innovations in the recognition, measurement, and reporting of insurance contracts, profoundly affecting the accounting processes for premiums and compensation liabilities. This study examines, within the framework of IFRS 17, the impact of mortality structures and premium margins on the financial performance of insurance contracts, focusing on eight countries with different demographic structures. The main objective of the research is to reveal how the innovations introduced by IFRS 17 reflect on the financial outcomes of insurance contracts in countries with diverse demographic profiles. To achieve this, the mortality structures of each country have been analysed using the widely used Lee-Carter model to model population dynamics. The resulting mortality forecasts were supported by simulations of life probabilities and life expectancies, designed to reflect potential demographic changes over the next 20 years. Using the simulation data, a simple application in the field of life insurance was carried out, which was used to model future cash flows and financial performance in accordance with IFRS 17s accounting principles. The findings of the study reveal that changes in mortality rates and premium margins have statistically significant effects on the financial performance of insurance contracts.

 The International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 17 is a regulation that introduces comprehensive and significant changes to the accounting for insurance contracts. Published by the International Accounting Standards Board IASB in 2017, this standard presents new accounting principles aimed at enhancing transparency and consistency in insurance companies financial statements. IFRS 17 introduces important innovations in the recognition, measurement, and reporting of insurance contracts, profoundly affecting the accounting processes for premiums and compensation liabilities. This study examines, within the framework of IFRS 17, the impact of mortality structures and premium margins on the financial performance of insurance contracts, focusing on eight countries with different demographic structures. The main objective of the research is to reveal how the innovations introduced by IFRS 17 reflect on the financial outcomes of insurance contracts in countries with diverse demographic profiles. To achieve this, the mortality structures of each country have been analysed using the widely used Lee-Carter model to model population dynamics. The resulting mortality forecasts were supported by simulations of life probabilities and life expectancies, designed to reflect potential demographic changes over the next 20 years. Using the simulation data, a simple application in the field of life insurance was carried out, which was used to model future cash flows and financial performance in accordance with IFRS 17s accounting principles. The findings of the study reveal that changes in mortality rates and premium margins have statistically significant effects on the financial performance of insurance contracts.

 Uluslararası Finansal Raporlama Standardı UFRS 17, sigorta sözleşmelerinin muhasebeleştirilmesine yönelik kapsamlı ve önemli değişiklikler getiren bir düzenlemedir. 2017 yılında Uluslararası Muhasebe Standartları Kurulu International Accounting Standards Board - IASB tarafından yayımlanan bu standart, sigorta şirketlerinin mali tablolarında şeffaflık ve tutarlılığı artırmayı hedefleyen yeni muhasebe ilkeleri sunmaktadır. UFRS 17, sigorta sözleşmelerinin tanınması, ölçülmesi ve raporlanmasına dair önemli yenilikler getirerek, primlerin ve tazminat yükümlülüklerinin muhasebeleştirilme süreçlerini derinlemesine etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada, UFRS 17 çerçevesinde, mortalite yapısı ve prim marjının sigorta sözleşmelerinin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkileri, demografik yapıları farklılık gösteren sekiz ülke özelinde ayrıntılı olarak incelenmiştir. Araştırmanın temel amacı, UFRS 17nin sigorta sektöründe getirdiği yeniliklerin, farklı demografik yapıya sahip ülkelerdeki sigorta sözleşmelerinin finansal sonuçlarına yansımalarını ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla, her bir ülkenin mortalite yapıları, nüfus dinamiklerini modellemek için yaygın olarak kullanılan Lee - Carter Modeli aracılığıyla analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen mortalite tahminleri, yaşam olasılıkları ve ömür beklentilerini içeren simülasyonlarla desteklenmiş, bu simülasyonlar önümüzdeki 20 yıl için olası demografik değişiklikleri yansıtacak şekilde kurgulanmıştır. Simülasyon verileri kullanılarak hayat sigortası alanında bir uygulama gerçekleştirilmiş ve bu uygulama, UFRS 17nin öngördüğü muhasebe ilkeleri doğrultusunda gelecekteki nakit akışlarını ve finansal performansı modellemek amacıyla kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, mortalite oranlarındaki değişikliklerin ve prim marjlarının sigorta sözleşmelerinin finansal performansı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Impact of Mortality and Premium Margin on the Financial Performance of the Insurance Contract: IFRS 17 Framework

Yazarlar:

Çiğdem Lazoğlu | Uğur Karabey

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstatistik (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 42, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001356012

pISSN:

2651-396X

IFRS 17

Lee-Carter Mortality Model

Financial Performance

Premium MarginUFRS 17

Lee-Carter Mortalite Modeli

Finansal Performans

Prim Marjı

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Çiğdem Lazoğlu | Uğur Karabey

Yayıncı: Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar: İstatistik (Diğer)

Dergi: EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 42, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001356012

pISSN: 2651-396X

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Çiğdem Lazoğlu | Uğur Karabey

Yayıncı:

Istanbul University

Ana Başlıklar:

İstatistik (Diğer)

Dergi:

EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics Issue 42, pp.36-50

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001356012

pISSN:

2651-396X