The Relationshıp Between Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Turkey: Findings of The Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto Causality Test

Ali Eren Alper

Makale detayları

The Relationshıp Between Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Turkey: Findings of The Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto Causality Test

Yazarlar:

Ali Eren Alper

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1391-1401

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290182

pISSN:

2564-7504

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Over the period 1923-2001, during which Turkey has been implementing the fixed exchange rate regime, various devaluations have been made in order to maintain the foreign trade balance starting from September 7, 1946, but no exchange rate intervention yielded the expected positive results. Turkey switched to a floating exchange rate system as one of the structural transformations put into practice following the year 2001, and afterward, the impacts of the exchange rate determined by the market supply and demand conditions on the foreign trade balance have been one of the main research subjects. In this study, using the monthly data obtained over the period 2013:01 - 2022:12, the causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and foreign trade in Turkey was investigated by performing the Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto causality test, which allows the structural change. According to the analysis results, no causality could be found between the real effective exchange rate and the imports and exports of Turkey. As a result of the study, it was determined that the policies that tried to steer the foreign trade balance by affecting the exchange rate in Turkey would not have been successful. Therefore, it was thought that it would have been more accurate for policies concentrating on improving the foreign trade balance to focus on the qualitative features of the produced goods and services.

 Over the period 1923-2001, during which Turkey has been implementing the fixed exchange rate regime, various devaluations have been made in order to maintain the foreign trade balance starting from September 7, 1946, but no exchange rate intervention yielded the expected positive results. Turkey switched to a floating exchange rate system as one of the structural transformations put into practice following the year 2001, and afterward, the impacts of the exchange rate determined by the market supply and demand conditions on the foreign trade balance have been one of the main research subjects. In this study, using the monthly data obtained over the period 2013:01 - 2022:12, the causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and foreign trade in Turkey was investigated by performing the Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto causality test, which allows the structural change. According to the analysis results, no causality could be found between the real effective exchange rate and the imports and exports of Turkey. As a result of the study, it was determined that the policies that tried to steer the foreign trade balance by affecting the exchange rate in Turkey would not have been successful. Therefore, it was thought that it would have been more accurate for policies concentrating on improving the foreign trade balance to focus on the qualitative features of the produced goods and services.

 Over the period 1923-2001, during which Turkey has been implementing the fixed exchange rate regime, various devaluations have been made in order to maintain the foreign trade balance starting from September 7, 1946, but no exchange rate intervention yielded the expected positive results. Turkey switched to a floating exchange rate system as one of the structural transformations put into practice following the year 2001, and afterward, the impacts of the exchange rate determined by the market supply and demand conditions on the foreign trade balance have been one of the main research subjects. In this study, using the monthly data obtained over the period 2013:01 - 2022:12, the causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and foreign trade in Turkey was investigated by performing the Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto causality test, which allows the structural change. According to the analysis results, no causality could be found between the real effective exchange rate and the imports and exports of Turkey. As a result of the study, it was determined that the policies that tried to steer the foreign trade balance by affecting the exchange rate in Turkey would not have been successful. Therefore, it was thought that it would have been more accurate for policies concentrating on improving the foreign trade balance to focus on the qualitative features of the produced goods and services.

 Türkiye sabit kur rejimini uyguladığı 1923-2001 yılları arasında, ilk olarak 7 Eylül 1946 tarihinden başlayarak dış ticaret dengesini sağlamak amacıyla birçok devalüasyon yapmış ancak hiçbir kur müdahalesi beklenen olumlu sonuçları vermemiştir. Türkiye 2001 yılından sonra uygulamaya koyduğu yapısal dönüşümlerden birisi olarak dalgalı kur sistemine geçiş yapmıştır ve bu tarihten sonra piyasa arz ve talep koşullarına göre belirlenen döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkileri başlıca araştırma konularından birisi olmuştur. Bu çalışmada 2013:01  2022:12 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak Türkiyede reel efektif döviz kuru ile dış ticaret arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi yapısal değişimi dikkate alan Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiyede reel efektif döviz kuru ile ithalat ve ihracat arasında nedensellik tespit edilememiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiyede döviz kurunu etkileyerek, dış ticaret dengesini yönlendirmeye çalışan politikaların başarılı olamayacağı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sebeple dış ticaret dengesini iyileştirmeye odaklanan politikaların üretilen mal ve hizmetlerin niteliksel özelliklerine odaklanmasının daha doğru olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Makale detayları

The Relationshıp Between Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Turkey: Findings of The Fourier Bootstrap Toda Yamamoto Causality Test

Yazarlar:

Ali Eren Alper

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1391-1401

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290182

pISSN:

2564-7504

Real effective exchange rate

Fourier Toda Yamamoto

Causality test

Foreign tradereel efektif döviz kuru

Fourier Toda Yamamoto

Nedensellik testi

Dış Ticaret

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Ali Eren Alper

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi: Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1391-1401

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001290182

pISSN: 2564-7504

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ali Eren Alper

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.7 Issue 2, pp.1391-1401

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001290182

pISSN:

2564-7504