Investigation of Temperature Change in the Aksu Basin, Antalya Province, and Future Projection

Zihni Kilit; Ali Coşar

Makale detayları

Investigation of Temperature Change in the Aksu Basin, Antalya Province, and Future Projection

Yazarlar:

Zihni Kilit | Ali Coşar

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Water Resources and Water Structures

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.17 Issue 2, pp.106-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355755

pISSN:

1309-0267

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Climate change and sustainable development hold critical significance for all communities. A major driver of climate change is the rise in carbon emissions, which is fueled by factors like population growth, economic development, technological advancements, migration, and national governance strategies. This trend underscores that industrialized nations play a substantial role in contributing to global carbon emissions. The effects of climate change are evident in increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes in water resource potential, and variations in streamflow patterns. These consequences, especially in developing nations, result in population movements, migration waves, changes in agricultural and commercial production, and profound socio-cultural shifts within societies. In Turkey, the most significant effect of climate change is evident in the potential of its water resources. Despite this, the public largely fails to acknowledge the issue, and there is a common misconception that Turkey will not experience water shortages. However, recent droughts and climate-related changes highlight the seriousness of this threat. This research examines the variations in yearly average temperatures in the Aksu Basin, in Antalya Province, as affected by climate change. Historical temperature records from the area were analyzed using MATLABs Curve Fitter Toolbox, and various polynomial regression models were employed. The regression analysis was used to predict future temperature values for the region. Among the models tested, the linear first-degree polynomial model yielded the most accurate results. This model suggests that the annual average temperature in the area could rise by about 0.003C.

 Climate change and sustainable development hold critical significance for all communities. A major driver of climate change is the rise in carbon emissions, which is fueled by factors like population growth, economic development, technological advancements, migration, and national governance strategies. This trend underscores that industrialized nations play a substantial role in contributing to global carbon emissions. The effects of climate change are evident in increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes in water resource potential, and variations in streamflow patterns. These consequences, especially in developing nations, result in population movements, migration waves, changes in agricultural and commercial production, and profound socio-cultural shifts within societies. In Turkey, the most significant effect of climate change is evident in the potential of its water resources. Despite this, the public largely fails to acknowledge the issue, and there is a common misconception that Turkey will not experience water shortages. However, recent droughts and climate-related changes highlight the seriousness of this threat. This research examines the variations in yearly average temperatures in the Aksu Basin, in Antalya Province, as affected by climate change. Historical temperature records from the area were analyzed using MATLABs Curve Fitter Toolbox, and various polynomial regression models were employed. The regression analysis was used to predict future temperature values for the region. Among the models tested, the linear first-degree polynomial model yielded the most accurate results. This model suggests that the annual average temperature in the area could rise by about 0.003C.

 Climate change and sustainable development hold critical significance for all communities. A major driver of climate change is the rise in carbon emissions, which is fueled by factors like population growth, economic development, technological advancements, migration, and national governance strategies. This trend underscores that industrialized nations play a substantial role in contributing to global carbon emissions. The effects of climate change are evident in increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes in water resource potential, and variations in streamflow patterns. These consequences, especially in developing nations, result in population movements, migration waves, changes in agricultural and commercial production, and profound socio-cultural shifts within societies. In Turkey, the most significant effect of climate change is evident in the potential of its water resources. Despite this, the public largely fails to acknowledge the issue, and there is a common misconception that Turkey will not experience water shortages. However, recent droughts and climate-related changes highlight the seriousness of this threat. This research examines the variations in yearly average temperatures in the Aksu Basin, in Antalya Province, as affected by climate change. Historical temperature records from the area were analyzed using MATLABs Curve Fitter Toolbox, and various polynomial regression models were employed. The regression analysis was used to predict future temperature values for the region. Among the models tested, the linear first-degree polynomial model yielded the most accurate results. This model suggests that the annual average temperature in the area could rise by about 0.003C.

 Climate change and sustainable development hold critical significance for all communities. A major driver of climate change is the rise in carbon emissions, which is fueled by factors like population growth, economic development, technological advancements, migration, and national governance strategies. This trend underscores that industrialized nations play a substantial role in contributing to global carbon emissions. The effects of climate change are evident in increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes in water resource potential, and variations in streamflow patterns. These consequences, especially in developing nations, result in population movements, migration waves, changes in agricultural and commercial production, and profound socio-cultural shifts within societies. In Turkey, the most significant effect of climate change is evident in the potential of its water resources. Despite this, the public largely fails to acknowledge the issue, and there is a common misconception that Turkey will not experience water shortages. However, recent droughts and climate-related changes highlight the seriousness of this threat. This research examines the variations in yearly average temperatures in the Aksu Basin, in Antalya Province, as affected by climate change. Historical temperature records from the area were analyzed using MATLABs Curve Fitter Toolbox, and various polynomial regression models were employed. The regression analysis was used to predict future temperature values for the region. Among the models tested, the linear first-degree polynomial model yielded the most accurate results. This model suggests that the annual average temperature in the area could rise by about 0.003C.

Makale detayları

Investigation of Temperature Change in the Aksu Basin, Antalya Province, and Future Projection

Yazarlar:

Zihni Kilit | Ali Coşar

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Water Resources and Water Structures

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.17 Issue 2, pp.106-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355755

pISSN:

1309-0267

climate change;

sustainable development

carbon emissions;

adaptation;

industry.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Investigation of Temperature Change in the Aksu Basin, Antalya Province, and Future Projection

Yazarlar: Zihni Kilit | Ali Coşar

Yayıncı: Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar: Water Resources and Water Structures

Dergi: International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.17 Issue 2, pp.106-120

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2025

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001355755

pISSN: 1309-0267

climate change;

sustainable development

carbon emissions;

adaptation;

industry.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Zihni Kilit | Ali Coşar

Yayıncı:

Akdeniz University

Ana Başlıklar:

Water Resources and Water Structures

Dergi:

International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences Vol.17 Issue 2, pp.106-120

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2025

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001355755

pISSN:

1309-0267