Higher Education and Unemployment in Turkey: Regional Panel Analysis with Undergraduate, Master's, and PhD Perspectives

Yahya Algül

Makale detayları

Higher Education and Unemployment in Turkey: Regional Panel Analysis with Undergraduate, Master's, and PhD Perspectives

Yazarlar:

Yahya Algül

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.38 Issue 2, pp.128-136

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001315275

pISSN:

2822-2652

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced a noteworthy increase in the establishment of universities and enrollment of students across various degree programs. However, this surge in higher education has been accompanied by a growing number of unemployed higher education graduates. To address this phenomenon, this research conducts a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between different levels of tertiary education, undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Doctorate and unemployment. The study utilizes TurkStats regional database, covering data from 26 provinces in Turkey spanning the years 2008 to 2021. Prior to delving into coefficient analysis, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin 2012 panel causality test was applied to identify the direction of potential causality and to establish an accurate model. The findings suggest a potential causal relationship running from being a higher education graduate, at all levels bachelors, masters, and PhD , to unemployment rate. Subsequently, to further scrutinize this relationship in light of causality findings, the Panel Augmented Mean Group estimator AMG was employed. The results indicate that a 1 increase in the total number of Bachelors degree graduates is associated with a 1.16 increase in unemployment rate. Based on these findings, it can be argued that, instead of further investing in higher education, a policy approach targeting middle-skilled jobs through advanced investment in vocational high schools may be more cost-effective.

 In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced a noteworthy increase in the establishment of universities and enrollment of students across various degree programs. However, this surge in higher education has been accompanied by a growing number of unemployed higher education graduates. To address this phenomenon, this research conducts a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between different levels of tertiary education, undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Doctorate and unemployment. The study utilizes TurkStats regional database, covering data from 26 provinces in Turkey spanning the years 2008 to 2021. Prior to delving into coefficient analysis, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin 2012 panel causality test was applied to identify the direction of potential causality and to establish an accurate model. The findings suggest a potential causal relationship running from being a higher education graduate, at all levels bachelors, masters, and PhD , to unemployment rate. Subsequently, to further scrutinize this relationship in light of causality findings, the Panel Augmented Mean Group estimator AMG was employed. The results indicate that a 1 increase in the total number of Bachelors degree graduates is associated with a 1.16 increase in unemployment rate. Based on these findings, it can be argued that, instead of further investing in higher education, a policy approach targeting middle-skilled jobs through advanced investment in vocational high schools may be more cost-effective.

 In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced a noteworthy increase in the establishment of universities and enrollment of students across various degree programs. However, this surge in higher education has been accompanied by a growing number of unemployed higher education graduates. To address this phenomenon, this research conducts a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between different levels of tertiary education, undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Doctorate and unemployment. The study utilizes TurkStats regional database, covering data from 26 provinces in Turkey spanning the years 2008 to 2021. Prior to delving into coefficient analysis, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin 2012 panel causality test was applied to identify the direction of potential causality and to establish an accurate model. The findings suggest a potential causal relationship running from being a higher education graduate, at all levels bachelors, masters, and PhD , to unemployment rate. Subsequently, to further scrutinize this relationship in light of causality findings, the Panel Augmented Mean Group estimator AMG was employed. The results indicate that a 1 increase in the total number of Bachelors degree graduates is associated with a 1.16 increase in unemployment rate. Based on these findings, it can be argued that, instead of further investing in higher education, a policy approach targeting middle-skilled jobs through advanced investment in vocational high schools may be more cost-effective.

 Türkiyede 2000li yıllardan itibaren açılmakta olan çok sayıdaki üniversiteyle birlikte yükseköğretimdeki öğrenci ve mezun sayılarında önemli bir artış yaşanmaktadır. Yükseköğrenimdeki bu yükselişin yanında, işsiz yükseköğretim mezunlarının sayısında da önemli bir artış gözlemlenmektedir. Bu olguyla ilgili olarak, bu araştırma yükseköğretimdeki lisans, yüksek lisans ve doktora gibi farklı mezuniyet düzeyleriyle, işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz etmektedir. Çalışma, 2008-2021 yıllarını kapsayan TÜİKin Düzey iki bölgesel veri tabanını kullanmakta ve Türkiyenin 26 bölgesini içermektedir. Katsayı analizine geçmeden önce potansiyel ilişkinin nedensellik yönünü tespit etmek ve doğru bir model kurabilmek için Dumitrescu ve Hurlin 2012 panel nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır ve bulgular her düzeyde lisans, yüksek lisans ve doktora yükseköğretim mezunluğundan işsizlik oranına doğru bir potansiyel nedenselliğe işaret etmektedir. Sonrasında, nedensellik bulguları ışığında bu ilişkiyi daha derinlemesine incelemek için Panel Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup tahmincisi AMG kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, Lisans mezunlarının toplam sayısındaki 1lik bir artışın işsizlik oranındaki 1,16lık bir artışa neden olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bu bulgular temel alındığında, yükseköğretime daha fazla yatırım yapmak yerine, meslek lisesi odaklı ara eleman ve teknik eleman eğitimine yönelen bir politikanın işsizlikle mücadele ve kaynakların verimli kullanımı bağlamında daha etkin olabileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

Makale detayları

Higher Education and Unemployment in Turkey: Regional Panel Analysis with Undergraduate, Master's, and PhD Perspectives

Yazarlar:

Yahya Algül

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.38 Issue 2, pp.128-136

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001315275

pISSN:

2822-2652

Employment and Unemployment

Higher Education

Regional Economics

Turkey

Panel Causality

Panel Augmented Mean Group ( AMG )İşsizlik ve istihdam

Yükseköğretim

Bölgesel İktisat

Türkiye

Panel Nedensellik

Panel Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup tahmincisi ( AMG )

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Yahya Algül

Yayıncı: Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar: Politik Ekonomi

Dergi: Trends in Business and Economics Vol.38 Issue 2, pp.128-136

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001315275

pISSN: 2822-2652

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Yahya Algül

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Politik Ekonomi

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.38 Issue 2, pp.128-136

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001315275

pISSN:

2822-2652