The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Ferdi Akpiliç

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Ferdi Akpiliç

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.39 Issue 3, pp.270-288

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001354581

pISSN:

2822-2652

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investments FDI excluding real estate and various uncertainty indicators in Türkiye was examined with the ARDL model. The long-term impact of Global Economy Policy Uncertainty GEPU, World Uncertainty Index WUI, Geopolitical Risk Index GPR, Fear Index VIX and Climate Policy Uncertainty CPU indicators on FDI has been analyzed. According to findings, a negative statistically significant relationship has been found between all uncertainty indicators except the VIX index and FDI inflows to Türkiye, and increases in uncertainties have a decreasing effect on FDI inflows. In particular, the effect of GEPU is more pronounced. It has been concluded that global index values related to WUI and GPR indicators are more influential on FDI than index values specific to Türkiye. Uncertaintieseconomic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or climate-relatednegatively affect FDI flows by increasing risks and reducing the predictability of returns. To mitigate these impacts, policymakers should implement comprehensive, transparent, and consistent policies to reduce uncertainty in all areas. Creating a stable investment and business environment will strengthen investor confidence, improve economic stability, and encourage stable FDI inflows.

 In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investments FDI excluding real estate and various uncertainty indicators in Türkiye was examined with the ARDL model. The long-term impact of Global Economy Policy Uncertainty GEPU, World Uncertainty Index WUI, Geopolitical Risk Index GPR, Fear Index VIX and Climate Policy Uncertainty CPU indicators on FDI has been analyzed. According to findings, a negative statistically significant relationship has been found between all uncertainty indicators except the VIX index and FDI inflows to Türkiye, and increases in uncertainties have a decreasing effect on FDI inflows. In particular, the effect of GEPU is more pronounced. It has been concluded that global index values related to WUI and GPR indicators are more influential on FDI than index values specific to Türkiye. Uncertaintieseconomic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or climate-relatednegatively affect FDI flows by increasing risks and reducing the predictability of returns. To mitigate these impacts, policymakers should implement comprehensive, transparent, and consistent policies to reduce uncertainty in all areas. Creating a stable investment and business environment will strengthen investor confidence, improve economic stability, and encourage stable FDI inflows.

 In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investments FDI excluding real estate and various uncertainty indicators in Türkiye was examined with the ARDL model. The long-term impact of Global Economy Policy Uncertainty GEPU, World Uncertainty Index WUI, Geopolitical Risk Index GPR, Fear Index VIX and Climate Policy Uncertainty CPU indicators on FDI has been analyzed. According to findings, a negative statistically significant relationship has been found between all uncertainty indicators except the VIX index and FDI inflows to Türkiye, and increases in uncertainties have a decreasing effect on FDI inflows. In particular, the effect of GEPU is more pronounced. It has been concluded that global index values related to WUI and GPR indicators are more influential on FDI than index values specific to Türkiye. Uncertaintieseconomic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or climate-relatednegatively affect FDI flows by increasing risks and reducing the predictability of returns. To mitigate these impacts, policymakers should implement comprehensive, transparent, and consistent policies to reduce uncertainty in all areas. Creating a stable investment and business environment will strengthen investor confidence, improve economic stability, and encourage stable FDI inflows.

 Bu çalışmada, Türkiye özelinde gayrimenkul hariç doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar DYY ile çeşitli belirsizlik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişki ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği GEPU, Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi WUI, Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi GPR, Korku Endeksi VIX ve İklim Politika Belirsizliği CPU göstergelerinin DYY üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Elde dilen bulgulara göre, VIX endeksi hariç tüm belirsizlik göstergeleri ile Türkiyeye yönelik gayrimenkul hariç DYY girişleri arasında negatif istatistiksel bakımdan anlamlı bir ilişki yakalanmış olup belirsizliklerdeki artışlar DYY girişlerini azaltıcı yönde etki etmektedir. Özelikle GEPUnun etkisi daha belirgindir. WUI ve GPR göstergelerine ilişkin küresel endeks değerlerinin Türkiyeye özgü endeks değerlerine kıyasla DYY üzerinde daha etkili oldukları sonucuna varılmıştır. Belirsizlikler -ekonomik, politik, düzenleyici, jeopolitik veya iklimle ilgili- riskleri artırarak ve getirilerin öngörülebilirliğini azaltarak DYY akımlarını olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu etkileri hafifletmek için, politika yapıcılar tüm alanlarda belirsizliği azaltmak amacıyla kapsamlı, şeffaf ve tutarlı politikalar uygulamalıdır. İstikrarlı bir yatırım ve iş ortamı yaratmak yatırımcı güvenini güçlendirecek, ekonomik istikrarı iyileştirecek ve istikrarlı DYY girişlerini teşvik edecektir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Ferdi Akpiliç

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.39 Issue 3, pp.270-288

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001354581

pISSN:

2822-2652

Foreign Direct Investment

Uncertainties

ARDLDoğrudan Yabancı Yatırım

Belirsizlik

ARDL

Sayı

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Excluding Real Estate and Uncertainty: The Case of Türkiye

Yazarlar: Ferdi Akpiliç

Yayıncı: Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Trends in Business and Economics Vol.39 Issue 3, pp.270-288

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001354581

pISSN: 2822-2652

Foreign Direct Investment

Uncertainties

ARDLDoğrudan Yabancı Yatırım

Belirsizlik

ARDL

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Ferdi Akpiliç

Yayıncı:

Ataturk University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Uluslararası İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Trends in Business and Economics Vol.39 Issue 3, pp.270-288

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001354581

pISSN:

2822-2652