The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investments and CDS Premiums in Türkiye: Time-Varying Causality Test (2011-2023)

Levent Sezal

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investments and CDS Premiums in Türkiye: Time-Varying Causality Test (2011-2023)

Yazarlar:

Levent Sezal

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Zaman Serileri Analizi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.576-585

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001318586

pISSN:

2651-4192

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Foreign direct investment FDI is used as an important policy tool in providing the funds needed by developing countries for development purposes. Countries with insufficient capital are in a race to attract foreign capital to their countries through various political, economic and legal regulations. This study econometrically investigates the relationship between FDI and CDS premiums in Türkiye and analyses whether there is a relationship between the monthly frequency data between 2011-2023. In order to determine the relationship between the variables, the stationarity of the variables should be determined first. Lee and Strazicich 2003 unit root tests, which take into account structural breaks, were applied to the data. The determination of whether there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causality relationship, the determination of the direction of the causality relationship is tested by mutual Granger Causality and Time-Varying Causality test methods. As a result of the study, no causality relationship was found from FDI to CDS premiums and from CDS premiums to FDI at 5 significance level.

 Foreign direct investment FDI is used as an important policy tool in providing the funds needed by developing countries for development purposes. Countries with insufficient capital are in a race to attract foreign capital to their countries through various political, economic and legal regulations. This study econometrically investigates the relationship between FDI and CDS premiums in Türkiye and analyses whether there is a relationship between the monthly frequency data between 2011-2023. In order to determine the relationship between the variables, the stationarity of the variables should be determined first. Lee and Strazicich 2003 unit root tests, which take into account structural breaks, were applied to the data. The determination of whether there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causality relationship, the determination of the direction of the causality relationship is tested by mutual Granger Causality and Time-Varying Causality test methods. As a result of the study, no causality relationship was found from FDI to CDS premiums and from CDS premiums to FDI at 5 significance level.

 Foreign direct investment FDI is used as an important policy tool in providing the funds needed by developing countries for development purposes. Countries with insufficient capital are in a race to attract foreign capital to their countries through various political, economic and legal regulations. This study econometrically investigates the relationship between FDI and CDS premiums in Türkiye and analyses whether there is a relationship between the monthly frequency data between 2011-2023. In order to determine the relationship between the variables, the stationarity of the variables should be determined first. Lee and Strazicich 2003 unit root tests, which take into account structural breaks, were applied to the data. The determination of whether there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causality relationship, the determination of the direction of the causality relationship is tested by mutual Granger Causality and Time-Varying Causality test methods. As a result of the study, no causality relationship was found from FDI to CDS premiums and from CDS premiums to FDI at 5 significance level.

 Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar DYY gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kalkınma amacı ile ihtiyacı olan fonları sağlamada önemli bir politika aracı olarak kullanılmaktadır. Sermaye yetersizliği olan ülkeler çeşitli politik, ekonomi ve hukuki düzenlemeler ile ülkelerine yabancı sermaye çekme yarışındadırlar. Bu çalışmada, Türkiyede DYY ve CDS primleri arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik olarak araştırılmış ve 2011-2023 tarihleri arası aylık frekanstaki veriler arasında bir ilişkinin bulunup bulunmadığını incelemiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri tespit etmek için ilk olarak değişkenlerin durağanlıklarının belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Verilere yapısal kırılmaların dikkate alındığı Lee ve Strazicich 2003 birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında nedenselliğin olup olmadığı, nedensellik ilişkisi mevcutsa yönlerinin tespit edilmesi karşılıklı olarak Granger Nedensellik ve Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik testi yöntemleriyle test edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda 5 anlamlılık düzeyinde DYYden CDS primlerine ve CDS primlerinden DYYye doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır.

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investments and CDS Premiums in Türkiye: Time-Varying Causality Test (2011-2023)

Yazarlar:

Levent Sezal

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Zaman Serileri Analizi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.576-585

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001318586

pISSN:

2651-4192

Foreign Direct Investment

CDS

Time-Varying Causality Test

Granger Causality TestDoğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar

CDS

Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi

Granger Nedensellik Testi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Levent Sezal

Yayıncı: Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Zaman Serileri Analizi | Finans

Dergi: Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.576-585

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 5/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001318586

pISSN: 2651-4192

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Levent Sezal

Yayıncı:

Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Zaman Serileri Analizi | Finans

Dergi:

Alanya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 2, pp.576-585

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

5/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001318586

pISSN:

2651-4192