Role of macroeconomic indicators in Uganda’s food price inflation: a VECM approach

Denis Waiswa

Makale detayları

Role of macroeconomic indicators in Uganda’s food price inflation: a VECM approach

Yazarlar:

Denis Waiswa

Yayıncı:

Siirt University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Ekinoks Ekonomi İşletme ve Siyasal Çalışmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.111-127

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299156

pISSN:

2687-4695

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study was conducted to empirically examine the potential impact of macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, GDP, money supply, and food exports on Ugandas food price inflation. The study employed the Johansen cointegration analysis and VEC model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2022Q1. Outcomes of the analysis show that all variables are positive and statistically significant in influencing food prices in the long run except GDP which was negative and significant. However, in the short run, only GDP and the lag of food CPI were significant and influenced food prices positively. Based on the variance decomposition analysis and the very low R-squared value 0.2493, it can be concluded that food prices in Uganda are greatly influenced by factors other than macroeconomic indicators. These factors include changes in the weather pattern which lead to low food supplies, price transmission effects of rising food and fuel prices in the international markets, increased domestic food demand, and higher costs of imported production inputs. Therefore, while it is necessary to recognize the role of macroeconomic indicators in food price inflation, it is equally important to emphasize the role played by these other factors in determining food prices in Uganda for effective policy implementations.

 This study was conducted to empirically examine the potential impact of macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, GDP, money supply, and food exports on Ugandas food price inflation. The study employed the Johansen cointegration analysis and VEC model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2022Q1. Outcomes of the analysis show that all variables are positive and statistically significant in influencing food prices in the long run except GDP which was negative and significant. However, in the short run, only GDP and the lag of food CPI were significant and influenced food prices positively. Based on the variance decomposition analysis and the very low R-squared value 0.2493, it can be concluded that food prices in Uganda are greatly influenced by factors other than macroeconomic indicators. These factors include changes in the weather pattern which lead to low food supplies, price transmission effects of rising food and fuel prices in the international markets, increased domestic food demand, and higher costs of imported production inputs. Therefore, while it is necessary to recognize the role of macroeconomic indicators in food price inflation, it is equally important to emphasize the role played by these other factors in determining food prices in Uganda for effective policy implementations.

 This study was conducted to empirically examine the potential impact of macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, GDP, money supply, and food exports on Ugandas food price inflation. The study employed the Johansen cointegration analysis and VEC model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2022Q1. Outcomes of the analysis show that all variables are positive and statistically significant in influencing food prices in the long run except GDP which was negative and significant. However, in the short run, only GDP and the lag of food CPI were significant and influenced food prices positively. Based on the variance decomposition analysis and the very low R-squared value 0.2493, it can be concluded that food prices in Uganda are greatly influenced by factors other than macroeconomic indicators. These factors include changes in the weather pattern which lead to low food supplies, price transmission effects of rising food and fuel prices in the international markets, increased domestic food demand, and higher costs of imported production inputs. Therefore, while it is necessary to recognize the role of macroeconomic indicators in food price inflation, it is equally important to emphasize the role played by these other factors in determining food prices in Uganda for effective policy implementations.

 This study was conducted to empirically examine the potential impact of macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate, GDP, money supply, and food exports on Ugandas food price inflation. The study employed the Johansen cointegration analysis and VEC model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2022Q1. Outcomes of the analysis show that all variables are positive and statistically significant in influencing food prices in the long run except GDP which was negative and significant. However, in the short run, only GDP and the lag of food CPI were significant and influenced food prices positively. Based on the variance decomposition analysis and the very low R-squared value 0.2493, it can be concluded that food prices in Uganda are greatly influenced by factors other than macroeconomic indicators. These factors include changes in the weather pattern which lead to low food supplies, price transmission effects of rising food and fuel prices in the international markets, increased domestic food demand, and higher costs of imported production inputs. Therefore, while it is necessary to recognize the role of macroeconomic indicators in food price inflation, it is equally important to emphasize the role played by these other factors in determining food prices in Uganda for effective policy implementations.

Makale detayları

Role of macroeconomic indicators in Uganda’s food price inflation: a VECM approach

Yazarlar:

Denis Waiswa

Yayıncı:

Siirt University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Ekinoks Ekonomi İşletme ve Siyasal Çalışmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.111-127

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299156

pISSN:

2687-4695

Macroeconomic indicators

food price inflation

unit root

VECM

Johansen cointegration

Sayı

Makale detayları

Role of macroeconomic indicators in Uganda’s food price inflation: a VECM approach

Yazarlar: Denis Waiswa

Yayıncı: Siirt University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi

Dergi: Ekinoks Ekonomi İşletme ve Siyasal Çalışmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.111-127

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 9/2023

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001299156

pISSN: 2687-4695

Macroeconomic indicators

food price inflation

unit root

VECM

Johansen cointegration

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Denis Waiswa

Yayıncı:

Siirt University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Ekinoks Ekonomi İşletme ve Siyasal Çalışmalar Dergisi Vol.10 Issue 2, pp.111-127

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

9/2023

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001299156

pISSN:

2687-4695