Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

Fatma Kolcu

Makale detayları

Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

Yazarlar:

Fatma Kolcu

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.31-56

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295314

pISSN:

2757-7449

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The aim of this study is to econometrically investigate the determinants of inflation in the Turkish economy. In the study that analyses the period of 2006-2021, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, real money supply, budget deficit and current account deficit on the inflation rate was estimated under three different time series techniques: Stepwise regression model, Vector Autoregressive VAR model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model. According to the findings, the exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in both the short and long-run. The change in real money supply affects negatively inflation in both periods. Interest rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate. However, this effect is marginally low. Although the budget deficit affects inflation in the short-run, it is not a determinant on inflation in the long-run. In the study, strong findings that the current account deficit is determinant on inflation were not obtained. In terms of the variables discussed in the period of 2006-2021, the most statistically effective factor on inflation in the long run in the Turkish economy is the changes in the exchange rate.

 The aim of this study is to econometrically investigate the determinants of inflation in the Turkish economy. In the study that analyses the period of 2006-2021, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, real money supply, budget deficit and current account deficit on the inflation rate was estimated under three different time series techniques: Stepwise regression model, Vector Autoregressive VAR model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model. According to the findings, the exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in both the short and long-run. The change in real money supply affects negatively inflation in both periods. Interest rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate. However, this effect is marginally low. Although the budget deficit affects inflation in the short-run, it is not a determinant on inflation in the long-run. In the study, strong findings that the current account deficit is determinant on inflation were not obtained. In terms of the variables discussed in the period of 2006-2021, the most statistically effective factor on inflation in the long run in the Turkish economy is the changes in the exchange rate.

 The aim of this study is to econometrically investigate the determinants of inflation in the Turkish economy. In the study that analyses the period of 2006-2021, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, real money supply, budget deficit and current account deficit on the inflation rate was estimated under three different time series techniques: Stepwise regression model, Vector Autoregressive VAR model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model. According to the findings, the exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in both the short and long-run. The change in real money supply affects negatively inflation in both periods. Interest rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate. However, this effect is marginally low. Although the budget deficit affects inflation in the short-run, it is not a determinant on inflation in the long-run. In the study, strong findings that the current account deficit is determinant on inflation were not obtained. In terms of the variables discussed in the period of 2006-2021, the most statistically effective factor on inflation in the long run in the Turkish economy is the changes in the exchange rate.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyonun belirleyicilerini ekonometrik olarak araştırmaktır. 2006-2021 dönemini analiz eden çalışmada döviz kuru, faiz oranı, reel para arzı, bütçe açığı ve cari açığın enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisi Adımsal Stepwise regresyon, Vektör Otoregresyon VAR ve Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif ARDL model olmak üzere üç farklı zaman serisi tekniği altında tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde enflasyon oranı üzerinde doğru yönlü etki yaratmaktadır. Reel para arzındaki değişim her iki dönemde de enflasyonu ters yönlü etkilemektedir. Faiz oranı enflasyonu doğru yönlü etkilemektedir. Ancak bu etki marjinal olarak düşüktür. Bütçe açığı kısa dönemde enflasyonu etkilemekle birlikte uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici değildir. Çalışmada cari açığın enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici olduğuna dair güçlü bulgular elde edilmemiştir. 2006-2021 döneminde ele alınan değişkenler itibariyle Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde istatistiksel olarak en etkili faktör döviz kurundaki değişimlerdir.

Makale detayları

Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

Yazarlar:

Fatma Kolcu

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.31-56

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295314

pISSN:

2757-7449

Determinants of Inflation

Stepwise Regression

Var

Ardl

TurkeyEnflasyonun Belirleyicileri

Adımsal Regresyon

Ardl

Türkiye

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Fatma Kolcu

Yayıncı: Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar: Enflasyon

Dergi: Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.31-56

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001295314

pISSN: 2757-7449

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Fatma Kolcu

Yayıncı:

Hitit University

Ana Başlıklar:

Enflasyon

Dergi:

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.16 Issue 1, pp.31-56

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001295314

pISSN:

2757-7449