THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BITCOIN AND ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX, INFLATION AND BROAD MONEY SUPPLY (M3) IN BRIC COUNTRIES

Meltem Kılıç; Aydın Gürbüz; Nur Esra Bekereci

Makale detayları

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BITCOIN AND ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX, INFLATION AND BROAD MONEY SUPPLY (M3) IN BRIC COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Meltem Kılıç | Aydın Gürbüz | Nur Esra Bekereci

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finans

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 59, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

11/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001304009

pISSN:

1308-2922

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin prices and economic policy uncertainty EPU, money supply M3, and inflation using the ARDL bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. In this context, the short- and long-term relationship between the mentioned variables was carried out for the BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China countries by using monthly data between August 2010 and December 2021. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been found that Chinas EPU index negatively affects Bitcoin in the long and short term. For India, the effect of the EPU index on the Bitcoin price in the long run is negative; No short-term effects were found. In Russia and Brazil, the EPU index was not found to be effective on Bitcoin. In the BRIC countries, the effect of inflation on Bitcoin is positive in the long run. The effect of M3 on Bitcoin has been positive for India in the short run and negative for Brazil in the long run. Finally, according to the causality results, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to Bitcoin in India and Brazil. For China, from inflation to Bitcoin; There is a causal relationship from Bitcoin to economic policy uncertainty. The findings will contribute to Bitcoin investors and policy makers to take initiatives and develop regulations regarding Bitcoin by considering the effects of M3, inflation and EPU.

 In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin prices and economic policy uncertainty EPU, money supply M3, and inflation using the ARDL bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. In this context, the short- and long-term relationship between the mentioned variables was carried out for the BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China countries by using monthly data between August 2010 and December 2021. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been found that Chinas EPU index negatively affects Bitcoin in the long and short term. For India, the effect of the EPU index on the Bitcoin price in the long run is negative; No short-term effects were found. In Russia and Brazil, the EPU index was not found to be effective on Bitcoin. In the BRIC countries, the effect of inflation on Bitcoin is positive in the long run. The effect of M3 on Bitcoin has been positive for India in the short run and negative for Brazil in the long run. Finally, according to the causality results, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to Bitcoin in India and Brazil. For China, from inflation to Bitcoin; There is a causal relationship from Bitcoin to economic policy uncertainty. The findings will contribute to Bitcoin investors and policy makers to take initiatives and develop regulations regarding Bitcoin by considering the effects of M3, inflation and EPU.

 In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin prices and economic policy uncertainty EPU, money supply M3, and inflation using the ARDL bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. In this context, the short- and long-term relationship between the mentioned variables was carried out for the BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China countries by using monthly data between August 2010 and December 2021. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been found that Chinas EPU index negatively affects Bitcoin in the long and short term. For India, the effect of the EPU index on the Bitcoin price in the long run is negative; No short-term effects were found. In Russia and Brazil, the EPU index was not found to be effective on Bitcoin. In the BRIC countries, the effect of inflation on Bitcoin is positive in the long run. The effect of M3 on Bitcoin has been positive for India in the short run and negative for Brazil in the long run. Finally, according to the causality results, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to Bitcoin in India and Brazil. For China, from inflation to Bitcoin; There is a causal relationship from Bitcoin to economic policy uncertainty. The findings will contribute to Bitcoin investors and policy makers to take initiatives and develop regulations regarding Bitcoin by considering the effects of M3, inflation and EPU.

 Bu çalışmada, Bitcoin fiyatları ile ekonomik politika belirsizlik endeksi EPU, geniş para arzı M3 ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanarak araştırılmak istenmiştir. Bu bağlamda söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkisi BRIC Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan ve Çin ülkeleri açısından Ağustos 2010-Aralık 2021 arası aylık veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik analizler sonucunda Çinnin EPU endeksinin uzun ve kısa dönemde Bitcoini negatif etkilediğine ulaşılmıştır. Hindistan için EPU endeksinin uzun dönemde Bitcoin fiyatı üzerindeki etkisi negatif iken; kısa dönemli etkiye rastlanılamadığı görülmüştür. Rusya ve Brezilya içinse EPU endeksi Bitcoin üzerinde etkili bulunamamıştır. BRIC ülkelerinde enflasyonun Bitcoin üzerindeki etkisi uzun dönemde pozitiftir. M3ün Bitcoin üzerindeki etkisi Hindistan için kısa dönemde pozitif, Brezilya için uzun dönemde negatif yönlü çıkmıştır. Son olarak nedensellik sonuçlarına göre Hindistan ve Brezilyada enflasyondan Bitcoine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik mevcuttur. Çin içinse enflasyondan Bitcoine; Bitcoinden de ekonomik politika belirsizliğine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusudur. Elde edilen bulgular Bitcoin yatırımcılarının ve politika yapıcıların M3, enflasyon ve EPUnun etkilerini göz önünde bulundurarak girişimde bulunmalarına ve Bitcoinle ilgili düzenlemeler geliştirmelerine katkıda bulunacaktır.

Makale detayları

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BITCOIN AND ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX, INFLATION AND BROAD MONEY SUPPLY (M3) IN BRIC COUNTRIES

Yazarlar:

Meltem Kılıç | Aydın Gürbüz | Nur Esra Bekereci

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finans

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 59, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

11/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001304009

pISSN:

1308-2922

Bitcoin

EPU

Money Supply

InflationBitcoin

EPU

Para Arzı

Enflasyon

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Meltem Kılıç | Aydın Gürbüz | Nur Esra Bekereci

Yayıncı: Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar: Finans

Dergi: Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 59, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 11/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001304009

pISSN: 1308-2922

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Meltem Kılıç | Aydın Gürbüz | Nur Esra Bekereci

Yayıncı:

Pamukkale University

Ana Başlıklar:

Finans

Dergi:

Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Issue 59, pp.1-17

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

11/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001304009

pISSN:

1308-2922