Examination of political cyclical fluctuations during general election periods in Türkiye

Songül Akyıldız; Mahmut İnan

Makale detayları

Examination of political cyclical fluctuations during general election periods in Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Songül Akyıldız | Mahmut İnan

Yayıncı:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.305-317

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316040

pISSN:

1302-1966

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This study examined whether a politically motivated deviation had an impact on the variables of budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures in the general elections held in Turkey after 1980. Nordhauss traditional opportunistic model was considered when testing political cyclical fluctuations in the examined election periods. In this model, empirical testing was carried out using the autoregressive analysis method used by Alesina, Cohen, and Roubini 1991 in their studies of OECD countries and industrial countries. According to the Model I test results in which the dummy variable was used to determine whether political cyclical fluctuations were effective during the general election periods between 1980 and 2019, it was concluded that the dummy coefficient was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to state that fluctuations occur in the budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures depending on the election periods. However, in the Model II test results, where each election period was examined separately, statistically positive and significant results were obtained. In each election period, different results emerged depending on the differences in economic conditions, political structure, and voter preferences.

 This study examined whether a politically motivated deviation had an impact on the variables of budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures in the general elections held in Turkey after 1980. Nordhauss traditional opportunistic model was considered when testing political cyclical fluctuations in the examined election periods. In this model, empirical testing was carried out using the autoregressive analysis method used by Alesina, Cohen, and Roubini 1991 in their studies of OECD countries and industrial countries. According to the Model I test results in which the dummy variable was used to determine whether political cyclical fluctuations were effective during the general election periods between 1980 and 2019, it was concluded that the dummy coefficient was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to state that fluctuations occur in the budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures depending on the election periods. However, in the Model II test results, where each election period was examined separately, statistically positive and significant results were obtained. In each election period, different results emerged depending on the differences in economic conditions, political structure, and voter preferences.

 This study examined whether a politically motivated deviation had an impact on the variables of budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures in the general elections held in Turkey after 1980. Nordhauss traditional opportunistic model was considered when testing political cyclical fluctuations in the examined election periods. In this model, empirical testing was carried out using the autoregressive analysis method used by Alesina, Cohen, and Roubini 1991 in their studies of OECD countries and industrial countries. According to the Model I test results in which the dummy variable was used to determine whether political cyclical fluctuations were effective during the general election periods between 1980 and 2019, it was concluded that the dummy coefficient was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to state that fluctuations occur in the budget balance, public personnel expenses, and transfer expenditures depending on the election periods. However, in the Model II test results, where each election period was examined separately, statistically positive and significant results were obtained. In each election period, different results emerged depending on the differences in economic conditions, political structure, and voter preferences.

 Bu çalışmada, Türkiyede 1980 sonrasında gerçekleşen genel seçimlerin, bütçe dengesi, kamu personel giderleri ve transfer harcamaları değişkenleri üzerinde politik amaçlı bir sapmanın etkili olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. İncelenen seçim dönemlerinde politik konjonktürel dalgalanmaların test edilmesinde Nordhausun geleneksel fırsatçı modeli dikkate alınmıştır. Bu modelde, Alesina, Cohen ve Roubini 1991nin OECD ülkelerinin ve endüstriyel ülkelerin ele alınarak yaptıkları çalışmalarında kullanmış oldukları otoregresif analiz yöntemi ile ampirik test yapılmıştır. 1980-2019 yılları arasında gerçekleşen genel seçim dönemlerinde politik konjonktürel dalgalanmaların etkili olup olmadığı, dummy değişkeninin kullanıldığı Model I test sonuçlarına göre, dummy katsayısının istatistiki yönden anlamlı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla bütçe dengesi, kamu personel giderleri ve transfer harcamaları üzerinde seçim dönemlerine bağlı olarak dalgalanmaların meydana geldiğini ifade etmek mümkün olmamaktadır. Ancak her bir seçim döneminin ayrı ayrı incelendiği Model II test sonuçlarında ise istatistiki olarak pozitif ve anlamlı sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Her seçim döneminde ekonomik koşulların, siyasi yapının ve seçmen tercihlerinin farklılığına bağlı olarak farklı sonuçlar ortaya çıkmıştır.

Makale detayları

Examination of political cyclical fluctuations during general election periods in Türkiye

Yazarlar:

Songül Akyıldız | Mahmut İnan

Yayıncı:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.305-317

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316040

pISSN:

1302-1966

Political Cyclical Fluctuations

Traditional Opportunistic Model

Electoral Economics.Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar

Geleneksel Fırsatçı Model

Seçim Ekonomisi.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Examination of political cyclical fluctuations during general election periods in Türkiye

Yazarlar: Songül Akyıldız | Mahmut İnan

Yayıncı: Afyon Kocatepe University

Ana Başlıklar: Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi: Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.305-317

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001316040

pISSN: 1302-1966

Political Cyclical Fluctuations

Traditional Opportunistic Model

Electoral Economics.Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar

Geleneksel Fırsatçı Model

Seçim Ekonomisi.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Songül Akyıldız | Mahmut İnan

Yayıncı:

Afyon Kocatepe University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Çalışmaları (Diğer)

Dergi:

Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.26 Issue 2, pp.305-317

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001316040

pISSN:

1302-1966