The Relationship between Seigniorage Income, Public Debt and Inflation in the Turkish Economy

Mehmet Avcı; Bora Süslü

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Seigniorage Income, Public Debt and Inflation in the Turkish Economy

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Avcı | Bora Süslü

Yayıncı:

Mugla Sitki Kocman University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 53, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001308594

pISSN:

2149-5858

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The public sector borrowing requirement PSBR is defined as the difference between all government revenues and all government expenditures, which can only be met by borrowing or printing money. The ratio of this deficit to GDP is a more important indicator than its absolute value. A high ratio may lead the government to borrow from the capital market. An increase in the demand for borrowable resources leads to an increase in interest rates. Closing the PSBR through money printing, on the other hand, results in an increase in inflation and interest rates. The inflation process is not independent from the time preference and political priorities of the public sector and resource allocation. Public policies are the main determinant of macroeconomic dynamics. In countries with weak fiscal systems and narrow tax bases, the state relies more on seigniorage and inflation taxes as a source of revenue. In todays economic structure, such revenues and budget deficits are the main determinants of monetary policy. The budget deficits that emerged after the pandemic and the expectation that these budget deficits would not be covered by future budget surpluses reduced the returns on public monetary assets and caused the public sector to run more deficits. This is the main reason for both the increase in exchange rates and the rise in inflation expectations for the Turkish economy. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between seigniorage revenue, public sector borrowing requirement and inflation in Turkey between 2008 and 2022.

 The public sector borrowing requirement PSBR is defined as the difference between all government revenues and all government expenditures, which can only be met by borrowing or printing money. The ratio of this deficit to GDP is a more important indicator than its absolute value. A high ratio may lead the government to borrow from the capital market. An increase in the demand for borrowable resources leads to an increase in interest rates. Closing the PSBR through money printing, on the other hand, results in an increase in inflation and interest rates. The inflation process is not independent from the time preference and political priorities of the public sector and resource allocation. Public policies are the main determinant of macroeconomic dynamics. In countries with weak fiscal systems and narrow tax bases, the state relies more on seigniorage and inflation taxes as a source of revenue. In todays economic structure, such revenues and budget deficits are the main determinants of monetary policy. The budget deficits that emerged after the pandemic and the expectation that these budget deficits would not be covered by future budget surpluses reduced the returns on public monetary assets and caused the public sector to run more deficits. This is the main reason for both the increase in exchange rates and the rise in inflation expectations for the Turkish economy. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between seigniorage revenue, public sector borrowing requirement and inflation in Turkey between 2008 and 2022.

 The public sector borrowing requirement PSBR is defined as the difference between all government revenues and all government expenditures, which can only be met by borrowing or printing money. The ratio of this deficit to GDP is a more important indicator than its absolute value. A high ratio may lead the government to borrow from the capital market. An increase in the demand for borrowable resources leads to an increase in interest rates. Closing the PSBR through money printing, on the other hand, results in an increase in inflation and interest rates. The inflation process is not independent from the time preference and political priorities of the public sector and resource allocation. Public policies are the main determinant of macroeconomic dynamics. In countries with weak fiscal systems and narrow tax bases, the state relies more on seigniorage and inflation taxes as a source of revenue. In todays economic structure, such revenues and budget deficits are the main determinants of monetary policy. The budget deficits that emerged after the pandemic and the expectation that these budget deficits would not be covered by future budget surpluses reduced the returns on public monetary assets and caused the public sector to run more deficits. This is the main reason for both the increase in exchange rates and the rise in inflation expectations for the Turkish economy. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between seigniorage revenue, public sector borrowing requirement and inflation in Turkey between 2008 and 2022.

 Kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği KKBG, devletin tüm gelirleri ile tüm giderleri arasındaki fark olarak tanımlanmakta olup, ancak borçlanma veya para basma yoluyla kapatılabilmektedir. Bu açığın mutlak değerinden ziyade GSYHye oranı daha önemli bir göstergedir. Bu oranın yüksek olması devletin sermaye piyasasından borçlanmasına neden olabilmektedir. Borçlanılabilir kaynaklara olan talebin artması, faiz oranlarında bir artışa neden olmaktadır. KKBGnin para basılması yoluyla kapatılması ise, enflasyonun ve faiz oranının yükselmesiyle sonuçlanmaktadır. Enflasyon süreci kamunun zaman tercihi ve politik önceliklerinden ve kaynak dağılımından bağımsız değildir. Kamu politikaları makro ekonomik dinamiklerin temel belirleyicisidir. Mali sistemleri zayıf ve vergi tabanları dar olan ülkelerde, devlet bir gelir kaynağı olarak senyoraj ve enflasyon vergilerine daha fazla bel bağlamaktadır. Günümüz ekonomik yapısında bu tür gelirler ve bütçe açıkları para politikasının temel belirleyicisi konumundadır. Pandemi sonrası ortaya çıkan bütçe açıkları ve bu bütçe açıklarının gelecekteki bütçe fazlaları ile kapatılmama beklentisi, kamunun parasal varlıklarının getirilerini azaltmış ve kamu kesiminin daha fazla açık vermesine neden olmuştur. Bu durum Türkiye ekonomi için hem kurların artmasının hem de enflasyon beklentisindeki artmanın temel nedeni olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiyede 2008-2022 yılları arası dönemde senyoraj geliri, kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği ve enflasyon ilişkisi incelenecektir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship between Seigniorage Income, Public Debt and Inflation in the Turkish Economy

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Avcı | Bora Süslü

Yayıncı:

Mugla Sitki Kocman University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 53, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001308594

pISSN:

2149-5858

Seigniorage income

public sector borrowing requirement

inflation

TurkeySenyoraj geliri

kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği

enflasyon

Türkiye

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Mehmet Avcı | Bora Süslü

Yayıncı: Mugla Sitki Kocman University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi: Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 53, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001308594

pISSN: 2149-5858

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Mehmet Avcı | Bora Süslü

Yayıncı:

Mugla Sitki Kocman University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

Dergi:

Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 53, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001308594

pISSN:

2149-5858