The Relationship Between Consumer Lending and Economic Growth in Terms of Credit Impulse and Credit Variables

Burcu Barlas; Gökhan Özkul

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Consumer Lending and Economic Growth in Terms of Credit Impulse and Credit Variables

Yazarlar:

Burcu Barlas | Gökhan Özkul

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans | Para-Bankacılık

Dergi:

Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 39, pp.1003-1029

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001297261

pISSN:

1308-9552

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Consumer loans play a driving role in economic growth by creating an important momentum in the economy. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and consumer lending between 2006Q1-2020Q2 in Türkiye. In the study, the rate of change in the chained gross domestic product with the seasonal and calendar adjusted expenditures method as the growth variable, the volume and amount variables as the lending variable, and Biggs et al. 2009 credit impulse the ratio of changes in credit flows to economic growth variable, which is introduced to the literature, is used. In addition to the credit impulse in the literature, two more credit impulse models are installed, and these models are also included in the analysis. ADF, Phillips-Perron, KPSS and Fourier KPSS unit root tests are applied to the variables in the analysis. The causality relationship between the variables is examined by Fourier Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality tests. According to the results of the Fourier Granger causality test, consumer credit volume and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth. According to the results of the Toda Yamamoto causality test, consumer lending amount and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth.

 Consumer loans play a driving role in economic growth by creating an important momentum in the economy. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and consumer lending between 2006Q1-2020Q2 in Türkiye. In the study, the rate of change in the chained gross domestic product with the seasonal and calendar adjusted expenditures method as the growth variable, the volume and amount variables as the lending variable, and Biggs et al. 2009 credit impulse the ratio of changes in credit flows to economic growth variable, which is introduced to the literature, is used. In addition to the credit impulse in the literature, two more credit impulse models are installed, and these models are also included in the analysis. ADF, Phillips-Perron, KPSS and Fourier KPSS unit root tests are applied to the variables in the analysis. The causality relationship between the variables is examined by Fourier Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality tests. According to the results of the Fourier Granger causality test, consumer credit volume and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth. According to the results of the Toda Yamamoto causality test, consumer lending amount and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth.

 Consumer loans play a driving role in economic growth by creating an important momentum in the economy. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and consumer lending between 2006Q1-2020Q2 in Türkiye. In the study, the rate of change in the chained gross domestic product with the seasonal and calendar adjusted expenditures method as the growth variable, the volume and amount variables as the lending variable, and Biggs et al. 2009 credit impulse the ratio of changes in credit flows to economic growth variable, which is introduced to the literature, is used. In addition to the credit impulse in the literature, two more credit impulse models are installed, and these models are also included in the analysis. ADF, Phillips-Perron, KPSS and Fourier KPSS unit root tests are applied to the variables in the analysis. The causality relationship between the variables is examined by Fourier Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality tests. According to the results of the Fourier Granger causality test, consumer credit volume and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth. According to the results of the Toda Yamamoto causality test, consumer lending amount and consumer credit impulse, calculated with annual real volume and GDP data, is the reason for economic growth.

 Tüketici kredileri ekonomide önemli bir ivme yaratarak ekonomik büyümede itici bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı Türkiyede 2006Q1-2020Q2 dönemleri arasında ekonomik büyüme ve tüketici kredileri arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Çalışmada büyüme değişkeni olarak mevsim ve takvim etkisinden arındırılmış harcamalar yöntemiyle zincirlenmiş gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla değişim oranı, kredi değişkeni olarak hacim ve tutar değişkenleri ile Biggs vd. 2009 tarafından literatüre kazandırılan kredi ivmesi kredi akımlarında meydana gelen değişimlerin ekonomik büyümeye olan oranı değişkeni kullanılmıştır. Literatürde yer alan kredi ivmesine ek olarak iki kredi ivmesi modeli daha geliştirilmiş ve bu modeller de analize dahil edilmiştir. Analizde değişkenlere ADF, Phillips-Perron, KPSS ve Fourier KPSS birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Fourier Granger nedensellik ve Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Fourier Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre tüketici kredisi hacmi ve yıllık reel hacim ve GSYH verileri ile hesaplanan tüketici kredisi ivmesi ekonomik büyümenin nedenidir. Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise tüketici kredisi kullandırım tutarı ve yıllık reel hacim ve GSYH verileri ile hesaplanan tüketici kredisi ivmesi ekonomik büyümenin nedenidir.

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Consumer Lending and Economic Growth in Terms of Credit Impulse and Credit Variables

Yazarlar:

Burcu Barlas | Gökhan Özkul

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans | Para-Bankacılık

Dergi:

Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 39, pp.1003-1029

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001297261

pISSN:

1308-9552

Consumer Lending

Economic Growth

Credit Impulse

Credit VariablesTüketici Kredileri

Ekonomik Büyüme

Kredi İvmesi

Kredi Değişkenleri

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Burcu Barlas | Gökhan Özkul

Yayıncı: Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi | Finans | Para-Bankacılık

Dergi: Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 39, pp.1003-1029

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 8/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001297261

pISSN: 1308-9552

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Burcu Barlas | Gökhan Özkul

Yayıncı:

Süleyman Demirel University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi | Finans | Para-Bankacılık

Dergi:

Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi Vol.14 Issue 39, pp.1003-1029

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001297261

pISSN:

1308-9552