Prediction of the Potential Spatial Distribution of the Vitis vinifera (Narince cv) SpeciesUnder Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxENT Model

İrem Aktaş; Orhan Mete Kılıç

Makale detayları

Prediction of the Potential Spatial Distribution of the Vitis vinifera (Narince cv) SpeciesUnder Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxENT Model

Yazarlar:

İrem Aktaş | Orhan Mete Kılıç

Yayıncı:

Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer) | Bitki Koruma (Diğer)

Dergi:

Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.157-165

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001338284

pISSN:

1300-2910

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The negative impacts of climate change, such as increasing competition among species, habitat loss, and spatial shifts, have a strong influence on species distribution areas. Species distribution models are an important tool for protecting species from the adverse effects of climate change and for conserving biodiversity. In this study, the spatial impact of climate change on the distribution of the Vitis Vinifera Narince grape species, which has a natural distribution in Turkey, was predicted using the MaxEnt model. To determine how the species distribution areas would be affected by climate change, the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model, developed based on the principles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 CMIP6, was used. The potential distribution of the species for the periods 20412060 and 20812100 was modeled under SSP 2.45 and SSP 5.85 scenarios. The results of the study show that the predicted current distribution area of Vitis Vinifera corresponds to its present geographic distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable areas for the species are calculated as 21.837 km², highly suitable areas as 5.169 km², and the total suitable area as 27.006 km². For the future climate change scenarios, under the SSP 2.45 scenario, the total suitable areas are predicted to be 22,877 km² for the 20412060 period and 24,225 km² for the 20812100 period. Under the SSP 5.85 scenario, the total suitable areas are estimated to be 23.908 km² for the 20412060 period and 22.781 km² for the 20812100 period. According to our findings, it has been determined that the spatial distribution of the species will change under future climate change scenarios, and its distribution in Turkey is expected to decrease.

 The negative impacts of climate change, such as increasing competition among species, habitat loss, and spatial shifts, have a strong influence on species distribution areas. Species distribution models are an important tool for protecting species from the adverse effects of climate change and for conserving biodiversity. In this study, the spatial impact of climate change on the distribution of the Vitis Vinifera Narince grape species, which has a natural distribution in Turkey, was predicted using the MaxEnt model. To determine how the species distribution areas would be affected by climate change, the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model, developed based on the principles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 CMIP6, was used. The potential distribution of the species for the periods 20412060 and 20812100 was modeled under SSP 2.45 and SSP 5.85 scenarios. The results of the study show that the predicted current distribution area of Vitis Vinifera corresponds to its present geographic distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable areas for the species are calculated as 21.837 km², highly suitable areas as 5.169 km², and the total suitable area as 27.006 km². For the future climate change scenarios, under the SSP 2.45 scenario, the total suitable areas are predicted to be 22,877 km² for the 20412060 period and 24,225 km² for the 20812100 period. Under the SSP 5.85 scenario, the total suitable areas are estimated to be 23.908 km² for the 20412060 period and 22.781 km² for the 20812100 period. According to our findings, it has been determined that the spatial distribution of the species will change under future climate change scenarios, and its distribution in Turkey is expected to decrease.

 The negative impacts of climate change, such as increasing competition among species, habitat loss, and spatial shifts, have a strong influence on species distribution areas. Species distribution models are an important tool for protecting species from the adverse effects of climate change and for conserving biodiversity. In this study, the spatial impact of climate change on the distribution of the Vitis Vinifera Narince grape species, which has a natural distribution in Turkey, was predicted using the MaxEnt model. To determine how the species distribution areas would be affected by climate change, the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model, developed based on the principles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 CMIP6, was used. The potential distribution of the species for the periods 20412060 and 20812100 was modeled under SSP 2.45 and SSP 5.85 scenarios. The results of the study show that the predicted current distribution area of Vitis Vinifera corresponds to its present geographic distribution. Under current climate conditions, suitable areas for the species are calculated as 21.837 km², highly suitable areas as 5.169 km², and the total suitable area as 27.006 km². For the future climate change scenarios, under the SSP 2.45 scenario, the total suitable areas are predicted to be 22,877 km² for the 20412060 period and 24,225 km² for the 20812100 period. Under the SSP 5.85 scenario, the total suitable areas are estimated to be 23.908 km² for the 20412060 period and 22.781 km² for the 20812100 period. According to our findings, it has been determined that the spatial distribution of the species will change under future climate change scenarios, and its distribution in Turkey is expected to decrease.

 İklim değişikliğinin türler üzerindeki rekabeti artırma, yaşam alanı kaybı ve mekânsal değişikliği gibi olumsuz etkileri, türlerin dağılım alanları üzerinde güçlü bir etkiye sahiptir. Türleri iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerinden korumada ve biyolojik çeşitliliğin korunmasında tür dağılım modelleri önemli bir araçtır. Çalışmada Türkiyede doğal yayılış alanı gösteren Narince üzüm Vitis vinifera çeşidinin iklim değişikliğinden mekânsal olarak nasıl etkileneceği MaxEnt model ile tahmin edilmiştir. Türün yayılış alanlarının iklim değişiminden nasıl etkileneceğini belirlemek için Birleştirilmiş Model Karşılaştırma Projesi Aşama 6 CMIP6 ilkelerine göre geliştirilen HadGEM3-GC31-LL iklim modelinin SSP 2.45 ve SSP 5.85 senaryolarına göre türün 2041-2060 ve 20812100 yıllarındaki potansiyel yayılış alanı modellenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Narince çeşidinin Vitis vinifera günümüz tahmini yayılış alanı mevcut coğrafi dağılımı ile uyuşmaktadır. Günümüz iklim koşullarında çeşide uygun alanlar 21.837km2, çok uygun alanlar 5.169 km2 ve toplam uygun alan 27.006 km2 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Gelecek iklim değişikliği senaryolarından SSP2.45 senaryosunda 2041-2060 yılları arasında toplam uygun alanların 22.877km2, 2081-2100 yılları arasında 24.225km2 olacağı tahmin edilmektedir. SSP 5.85 senaryosunda 2041-2060 yılları arasında toplam uygun alanların 23.908km2, 2081-2100 yılları arasında 22.781 km2 olacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Bu sonuçlarımıza göre gelecek iklim değişikliği senaryoları altında çeşidin mekânsal dağılışının değişeceği ve türün dağılımının Türkiyede azalacağı tespit edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

Prediction of the Potential Spatial Distribution of the Vitis vinifera (Narince cv) SpeciesUnder Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxENT Model

Yazarlar:

İrem Aktaş | Orhan Mete Kılıç

Yayıncı:

Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer) | Bitki Koruma (Diğer)

Dergi:

Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.157-165

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001338284

pISSN:

1300-2910

MaxEnt

Species Distribution Modeling

Climate Change Scenarios

GISCBS

İklim Değişikliği Senaryoları

MaxEnt

Tür Dağılım Modelleme

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: İrem Aktaş | Orhan Mete Kılıç

Yayıncı: Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University

Ana Başlıklar: Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer) | Bitki Koruma (Diğer)

Dergi: Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.157-165

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001338284

pISSN: 1300-2910

Sayı

Yazarlar:

İrem Aktaş | Orhan Mete Kılıç

Yayıncı:

Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ziraat Mühendisliği (Diğer) | Bitki Koruma (Diğer)

Dergi:

Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi Vol.41 Issue 3, pp.157-165

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001338284

pISSN:

1300-2910