RELATIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND BUDGET DEFICIT: A JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS IN THE CASE OF TURKIYE

Nuh Ekrem Yıldırım

Makale detayları

RELATIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND BUDGET DEFICIT: A JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS IN THE CASE OF TURKIYE

Yazarlar:

Nuh Ekrem Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

İnönü Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 2, pp.556-572

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001337130

pISSN:

2147-0936

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The current account, which is one of the key indicators of a countrys economic performance, is closely monitored bye economic and political circles. With the spread of capital accounts after the 1980s, the concept of current account deficit has remained one of the main problems in countries. The financial and economic relations of countries with other countries during a specific period are tracked in a table called the balance of payments, and the current account balance is a sub-item of this table. The current account deficit reveals a countrys economic relations with the external world, and it is crucial for countries to take significant steps to reduce this deficit. The effort to cover the current account deficit with debt in the long term causes serious harm to the economic welfare of future generations. For a country to grow economically, it is important that the current account deficit remains at a sustainable level. In recent years, many studies have been counducted on the current account deficit, and it has been one of the most debated topics in Turkiye. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term relationships between Turkiyes annual data on economic growth, current account deficit and budget deficit over the period from 2002 to 2021 using the cointegration methodology. According to the Johansen cointegration analysis findings, 1 increase in the current account deficit reduces the GDP by approximately 0.59; 1 increase in the budget deficit increases the GDP by approximately 1.68. The error correction coefficient, on the other hand, shows that the process of adapting to the equilibrium occurs rapidly, and that the deviations from the equilibrium relationship converge again a stationary process in a shorter period than one period.

 The current account, which is one of the key indicators of a countrys economic performance, is closely monitored bye economic and political circles. With the spread of capital accounts after the 1980s, the concept of current account deficit has remained one of the main problems in countries. The financial and economic relations of countries with other countries during a specific period are tracked in a table called the balance of payments, and the current account balance is a sub-item of this table. The current account deficit reveals a countrys economic relations with the external world, and it is crucial for countries to take significant steps to reduce this deficit. The effort to cover the current account deficit with debt in the long term causes serious harm to the economic welfare of future generations. For a country to grow economically, it is important that the current account deficit remains at a sustainable level. In recent years, many studies have been counducted on the current account deficit, and it has been one of the most debated topics in Turkiye. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term relationships between Turkiyes annual data on economic growth, current account deficit and budget deficit over the period from 2002 to 2021 using the cointegration methodology. According to the Johansen cointegration analysis findings, 1 increase in the current account deficit reduces the GDP by approximately 0.59; 1 increase in the budget deficit increases the GDP by approximately 1.68. The error correction coefficient, on the other hand, shows that the process of adapting to the equilibrium occurs rapidly, and that the deviations from the equilibrium relationship converge again a stationary process in a shorter period than one period.

 The current account, which is one of the key indicators of a countrys economic performance, is closely monitored bye economic and political circles. With the spread of capital accounts after the 1980s, the concept of current account deficit has remained one of the main problems in countries. The financial and economic relations of countries with other countries during a specific period are tracked in a table called the balance of payments, and the current account balance is a sub-item of this table. The current account deficit reveals a countrys economic relations with the external world, and it is crucial for countries to take significant steps to reduce this deficit. The effort to cover the current account deficit with debt in the long term causes serious harm to the economic welfare of future generations. For a country to grow economically, it is important that the current account deficit remains at a sustainable level. In recent years, many studies have been counducted on the current account deficit, and it has been one of the most debated topics in Turkiye. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term relationships between Turkiyes annual data on economic growth, current account deficit and budget deficit over the period from 2002 to 2021 using the cointegration methodology. According to the Johansen cointegration analysis findings, 1 increase in the current account deficit reduces the GDP by approximately 0.59; 1 increase in the budget deficit increases the GDP by approximately 1.68. The error correction coefficient, on the other hand, shows that the process of adapting to the equilibrium occurs rapidly, and that the deviations from the equilibrium relationship converge again a stationary process in a shorter period than one period.

 Bir ülkenin önemli ekonomik performans göstergelerinden birisi olan cari işlemler hesabı, ekonomik ve siyasi çevreler tarafından takip edilmektedir. 1980ler sonrasında sermaye hareketlerinin yaygınlaşmasıyla cari açık kavramı, ülkelerde temel problemler arasında yer almıştır. Ülkelerin belirli bir dönemdeki diğer ülkelerle olan mali ve ekonomik ilişkileri dış ödemeler bilançosu ismi verilen bir tabloda izlenir ve cari işlemler dengesi de bu tablonun alt kalemini oluşturmaktadır. Cari işlemler açığı, bir ülkenin dış dünya ile olan ekonomik ilişkilerini ortaya koymakta ve bu cari açığın azaltılması için ülkelere önemli görevler düşmektedir. Cari açığın uzun dönemde borçlarla kapatılma gayreti ülkelerin gelecek nesillerinin ekonomik refahına ciddi zararlar vermektedir. Bir ülkenin ekonomik olarak büyümesi için, cari açığın sürdürülebilir seviyede olması önemlidir. Son yıllarda cari açık ile ilgili birçok çalışma yapılmış ve Türkiyede en çok tartışılan konular arasında yer almıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2002-2021 zaman aralığında Türkiyenin ekonomik büyüme, cari açık ve bütçe açığı yıllık verileri arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkileri eşbütünleşme metodolojisi ile incelemektir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi bulgularına göre cari işlemler açığındaki 1lik bir artış, GSYHyi yaklaşık olarak 0.59 azaltmakta; bütçe açığındaki 1lik bir artış ise GSYHyi yaklaşık olarak 1.68 oranında artırmaktadır. Hata düzeltme katsayısı ise dengeye uyarlanma sürecinin hızlı bir şekilde gerçekleştiğini, ayrıca denge ilişkisinden sapmaların bir dönemden daha kısa bir dönemde tekrar durağan bir sürece yaklaştığını göstermektedir.

Makale detayları

RELATIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND BUDGET DEFICIT: A JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS IN THE CASE OF TURKIYE

Yazarlar:

Nuh Ekrem Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

İnönü Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 2, pp.556-572

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001337130

pISSN:

2147-0936

Economic Growth

Current Account Deficit

Budget Balance

Turkiye

Cointegration Analysis.Ekonomik Büyüme

Cari İşlemler Açığı

Bütçe Dengesi

Türkiye

Eşbütünleşme Analizi.

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Nuh Ekrem Yıldırım

Yayıncı: Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar: Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi: İnönü Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 2, pp.556-572

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001337130

pISSN: 2147-0936

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Nuh Ekrem Yıldırım

Yayıncı:

Inonu University

Ana Başlıklar:

Makroekonomik Teori

Dergi:

İnönü Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 2, pp.556-572

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001337130

pISSN:

2147-0936