The Relationship Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment in Turkey, and the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Hakan Bakkal

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment in Turkey, and the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Yazarlar:

Hakan Bakkal

Yayıncı:

Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University

Dergi:

Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 2, pp.737-752

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296430

pISSN:

2757-9425

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the selected key macroeconomic variables and unemployment, and the role of the covid-19 pandemic in this relationship for Turkey. To that end, the relationship between economic growth, trade openness, foreign direct investments, and unemployment is examined with quarterly data for the first quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2020. In addition to the long-term relationship between the variables, the coefficient estimates of the interactive dummy variables for the pandemic period are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test method. Based on the results, there is only a relationship exists between unemployment and economic growth, and economic growth increases unemployment in the long run. Therefore, Okuns law is invalid in Turkey. On the other hand, it is also determined that growth has rising effect, foreign direct investment and trade openness have a dampening effect on the unemployment in covid-19 period. During the period, the covid-19 alone increases unemployment.

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the selected key macroeconomic variables and unemployment, and the role of the covid-19 pandemic in this relationship for Turkey. To that end, the relationship between economic growth, trade openness, foreign direct investments, and unemployment is examined with quarterly data for the first quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2020. In addition to the long-term relationship between the variables, the coefficient estimates of the interactive dummy variables for the pandemic period are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test method. Based on the results, there is only a relationship exists between unemployment and economic growth, and economic growth increases unemployment in the long run. Therefore, Okuns law is invalid in Turkey. On the other hand, it is also determined that growth has rising effect, foreign direct investment and trade openness have a dampening effect on the unemployment in covid-19 period. During the period, the covid-19 alone increases unemployment.

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the selected key macroeconomic variables and unemployment, and the role of the covid-19 pandemic in this relationship for Turkey. To that end, the relationship between economic growth, trade openness, foreign direct investments, and unemployment is examined with quarterly data for the first quarter of 2006 and the second quarter of 2020. In addition to the long-term relationship between the variables, the coefficient estimates of the interactive dummy variables for the pandemic period are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test method. Based on the results, there is only a relationship exists between unemployment and economic growth, and economic growth increases unemployment in the long run. Therefore, Okuns law is invalid in Turkey. On the other hand, it is also determined that growth has rising effect, foreign direct investment and trade openness have a dampening effect on the unemployment in covid-19 period. During the period, the covid-19 alone increases unemployment.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için seçilmiş temel makroekonomik değişkenler ile işsizlik ilişkisini ve bu ilişkide COVİD-19 pandemisinin rolünü araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla 2006Q1-2022Q1 için üçer aylık verilerle ekonomik büyüme, ticari açıklık, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırım girişleri ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Çalışmada ARDL sınır testi yöntemini kullanarak değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin yanısıra pandemi dönemine ilişkin etkileşimli kukla değişkenlerin katsayı tahminleri analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre uzun dönemde yalnızca işsizlik ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir ilişki bulunmakta, ekonomik büyüme işsizliği artırmaktadır. Dolayısıyla Türkiyede Okun yasası geçerli değildir. Öte yandan COVID-19 döneminde, büyümenin işsizlik artırıcı, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve dışa açıklığın işsizlik azaltıcı etkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu dönemde covid-19 tek başına işsizliği artırmaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Relationship Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment in Turkey, and the effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Yazarlar:

Hakan Bakkal

Yayıncı:

Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University

Dergi:

Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 2, pp.737-752

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296430

pISSN:

2757-9425

Trade Openness

Foreign Direct Investments

Unemployment

Covid-19

TurkeyTicari Açıklık

Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları

Covid-19

Türkiye

İşsizlik

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Hakan Bakkal

Yayıncı: Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University

Dergi: Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 2, pp.737-752

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 7/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001296430

pISSN: 2757-9425

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Hakan Bakkal

Yayıncı:

Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University

Dergi:

Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.23 Issue 2, pp.737-752

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

7/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001296430

pISSN:

2757-9425