The Impact of Interest Rates and Credit Default Swaps on Banking and Financial Leasing Indices: The Case of Turkey

Nuri Buldan; Bülent Altay

Makale detayları

The Impact of Interest Rates and Credit Default Swaps on Banking and Financial Leasing Indices: The Case of Turkey

Yazarlar:

Nuri Buldan | Bülent Altay

Yayıncı:

Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası | Finans | Sermaye Piyasaları

Dergi:

Kapadokya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 1, pp.21-33

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001335661

pISSN:

2602-3474

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Economic indicators have been a critical criterion in the decision-making processes of individuals since the inception of social and financial life. Interest rates and credit default swap CDS premiums stand out as two key ratios that shape the core dynamics of financial markets. This study analyzes the effects of interest rates and CDS premiums on the banking index components XBANK and the financial leasing and factoring index components XFINK traded on Borsa Istanbul, focusing specifically on Türkiye. The research employs a time-series analysis methodology, utilizing monthly data spanning the period from January 2013 to June 2024. The analysis is supported by the Zivot-Andrews unit root test and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test. The econometric findings reveal how economic fluctuations and policy changes impact these relationships during certain periods. For instance, the Central Bank of Turkeys interest rate cuts amid a high-inflation environment have exerted significant pressure on financial markets and deeply influenced them. The results indicate that interest rates and CDS premiums have a decisive impact on the banking and financial leasing sectors, both of which play a critical role in ensuring financial stability. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the sectoral effects of interest rates and CDS premiums, contributing to the formulation of more effective policy decisions. This research provides key insights into managing vulnerabilities in Turkeys financial markets and ensuring sectoral stability.

 Economic indicators have been a critical criterion in the decision-making processes of individuals since the inception of social and financial life. Interest rates and credit default swap CDS premiums stand out as two key ratios that shape the core dynamics of financial markets. This study analyzes the effects of interest rates and CDS premiums on the banking index components XBANK and the financial leasing and factoring index components XFINK traded on Borsa Istanbul, focusing specifically on Türkiye. The research employs a time-series analysis methodology, utilizing monthly data spanning the period from January 2013 to June 2024. The analysis is supported by the Zivot-Andrews unit root test and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test. The econometric findings reveal how economic fluctuations and policy changes impact these relationships during certain periods. For instance, the Central Bank of Turkeys interest rate cuts amid a high-inflation environment have exerted significant pressure on financial markets and deeply influenced them. The results indicate that interest rates and CDS premiums have a decisive impact on the banking and financial leasing sectors, both of which play a critical role in ensuring financial stability. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the sectoral effects of interest rates and CDS premiums, contributing to the formulation of more effective policy decisions. This research provides key insights into managing vulnerabilities in Turkeys financial markets and ensuring sectoral stability.

 Economic indicators have been a critical criterion in the decision-making processes of individuals since the inception of social and financial life. Interest rates and credit default swap CDS premiums stand out as two key ratios that shape the core dynamics of financial markets. This study analyzes the effects of interest rates and CDS premiums on the banking index components XBANK and the financial leasing and factoring index components XFINK traded on Borsa Istanbul, focusing specifically on Türkiye. The research employs a time-series analysis methodology, utilizing monthly data spanning the period from January 2013 to June 2024. The analysis is supported by the Zivot-Andrews unit root test and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test. The econometric findings reveal how economic fluctuations and policy changes impact these relationships during certain periods. For instance, the Central Bank of Turkeys interest rate cuts amid a high-inflation environment have exerted significant pressure on financial markets and deeply influenced them. The results indicate that interest rates and CDS premiums have a decisive impact on the banking and financial leasing sectors, both of which play a critical role in ensuring financial stability. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the sectoral effects of interest rates and CDS premiums, contributing to the formulation of more effective policy decisions. This research provides key insights into managing vulnerabilities in Turkeys financial markets and ensuring sectoral stability.

 Ekonomik göstergeler toplumsal ve finansal hayatın başlangıcından bu tarafa karar alıcı bireylerin karar alma süreçlerinden önemli bir kriter olmuştur. Faiz oranları ve kredi temerrüt oranları CDS, finansal piyasaların temel taşlarını hareketlendiren iki önemli rasyo olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Çalışma Türkiye özelinde faiz oranları ve CDS primlerinin Borsa İstanbulda işlem gören bankacılık pay bileşenleri XBANK ve finansal kiralama faktöring şirketlerinin pay bileşenleri XFINK endeksleri üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Zaman serisi analizi yöntemiyle yapılan araştırmada, 2013 Ocak ve 2024 Haziran dönemlerini kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Araştırma Zivot-Andrews birim kök sınaması ve Gregory-Hansen koentegrasyon sınamasıyla desteklenmiştir. Araştırmanın ekonometrik bulguları özellikle ekonomik dalgalanmaların ve politika değişikliklerinin belirli dönemlerde bu ilişkiyi nasıl etkilediğini göstermektedir. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının yüksek enflasyon ortamındaki faiz indirimi politikaları gibi kritik politika kararları, finansal piyasalara olan baskısını arttırmış ve derinden etkilemiştir. Sonuç olarak faiz oranları ve CDS primlerinin bankacılık ve finansal kiralama sektörlerinde belirleyici etkisi olduğu ve bu sektörlerin finansal istikrar açısından kritik bir rol oynadığı saptanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar faiz oranları ve CDS primlerinin sektörel düzeydeki etkilerinin anlaşılmasını ve daha etkin politika tercihleri yapılmasına katkı sağlayacağını göstermektedir. Araştırma, Türkiyenin finansal piyasalarındaki kırılganlıkların yönetim ve sektörel istikrarın sağlanması açısından önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Impact of Interest Rates and Credit Default Swaps on Banking and Financial Leasing Indices: The Case of Turkey

Yazarlar:

Nuri Buldan | Bülent Altay

Yayıncı:

Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası | Finans | Sermaye Piyasaları

Dergi:

Kapadokya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 1, pp.21-33

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001335661

pISSN:

2602-3474

Interest Rates

Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

Banking Index (XBANK)

Financial Leasing and Factoring Index (XFINK)

Zivot-Andrews Test

Structural BreakFaiz Oranları

Kredi Temerrüt Swapları

Bankacılık Endeksi

Finansal Kiralama ve Faktöring Endeksi

Yapısal Kırılma

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Nuri Buldan | Bülent Altay

Yayıncı: Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University

Ana Başlıklar: Para Politikası | Finans | Sermaye Piyasaları

Dergi: Kapadokya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 1, pp.21-33

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 12/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001335661

pISSN: 2602-3474

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Nuri Buldan | Bülent Altay

Yayıncı:

Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası | Finans | Sermaye Piyasaları

Dergi:

Kapadokya Akademik Bakış Vol.8 Issue 1, pp.21-33

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

12/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001335661

pISSN:

2602-3474