Estimation of Weibull Probability Distribution Parameters with Optimization Algorithms and Foça Wind Data Application

Bayram Köse; İbrahim Işıklı; Mehmet Sagbas

Makale detayları

Estimation of Weibull Probability Distribution Parameters with Optimization Algorithms and Foça Wind Data Application

Yazarlar:

Bayram Köse | İbrahim Işıklı | Mehmet Sagbas

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Wind Energy Systems | Renewable Energy Resources

Dergi:

Gazi University Journal of Science Vol.37 Issue 3, pp.1236-1254

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001319747

pISSN:

2147-1762

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 In this study, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function W.pdf used in determining the profitability of wind energy projects are estimated using optimization algorithms and the moment method. These parameters are then used to estimate the wind energy potential WEP in Foça region of İzmir in Turkey. The values of Weibull parameters obtained using Particle Swarm Optimization PSO, Sine Cosine Algorithm SCA, Social Group Optimization SGO, and Bat Algorithm BA were compared with the estimation results of the Moment Method MM as reference. Root mean square error RMSE and chi-square χ2 tests were used to compare the parameter estimation methods. The wind speed measurement values of the observation station in Foça were used. As a result of Foça speed data analysis, the annual average wind speed was determined as 6.15 ms, and the dominant wind direction was found as northeast. Wind speed frequency distributions were compared with the measurement results and calculated with the estimated parameters. When RMSE and χ2 criteria are evaluated together; it can be concluded that each used method behaves similarly for the given parameter estimation problem, with minor variations. As a result, it has been found that the optimization parameters produce very good results in wind speed distribution and potential calculations.

 In this study, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function W.pdf used in determining the profitability of wind energy projects are estimated using optimization algorithms and the moment method. These parameters are then used to estimate the wind energy potential WEP in Foça region of İzmir in Turkey. The values of Weibull parameters obtained using Particle Swarm Optimization PSO, Sine Cosine Algorithm SCA, Social Group Optimization SGO, and Bat Algorithm BA were compared with the estimation results of the Moment Method MM as reference. Root mean square error RMSE and chi-square χ2 tests were used to compare the parameter estimation methods. The wind speed measurement values of the observation station in Foça were used. As a result of Foça speed data analysis, the annual average wind speed was determined as 6.15 ms, and the dominant wind direction was found as northeast. Wind speed frequency distributions were compared with the measurement results and calculated with the estimated parameters. When RMSE and χ2 criteria are evaluated together; it can be concluded that each used method behaves similarly for the given parameter estimation problem, with minor variations. As a result, it has been found that the optimization parameters produce very good results in wind speed distribution and potential calculations.

 In this study, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function W.pdf used in determining the profitability of wind energy projects are estimated using optimization algorithms and the moment method. These parameters are then used to estimate the wind energy potential WEP in Foça region of İzmir in Turkey. The values of Weibull parameters obtained using Particle Swarm Optimization PSO, Sine Cosine Algorithm SCA, Social Group Optimization SGO, and Bat Algorithm BA were compared with the estimation results of the Moment Method MM as reference. Root mean square error RMSE and chi-square χ2 tests were used to compare the parameter estimation methods. The wind speed measurement values of the observation station in Foça were used. As a result of Foça speed data analysis, the annual average wind speed was determined as 6.15 ms, and the dominant wind direction was found as northeast. Wind speed frequency distributions were compared with the measurement results and calculated with the estimated parameters. When RMSE and χ2 criteria are evaluated together; it can be concluded that each used method behaves similarly for the given parameter estimation problem, with minor variations. As a result, it has been found that the optimization parameters produce very good results in wind speed distribution and potential calculations.

 In this study, the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function W.pdf used in determining the profitability of wind energy projects are estimated using optimization algorithms and the moment method. These parameters are then used to estimate the wind energy potential WEP in Foça region of İzmir in Turkey. The values of Weibull parameters obtained using Particle Swarm Optimization PSO, Sine Cosine Algorithm SCA, Social Group Optimization SGO, and Bat Algorithm BA were compared with the estimation results of the Moment Method MM as reference. Root mean square error RMSE and chi-square χ2 tests were used to compare the parameter estimation methods. The wind speed measurement values of the observation station in Foça were used. As a result of Foça speed data analysis, the annual average wind speed was determined as 6.15 ms, and the dominant wind direction was found as northeast. Wind speed frequency distributions were compared with the measurement results and calculated with the estimated parameters. When RMSE and χ2 criteria are evaluated together; it can be concluded that each used method behaves similarly for the given parameter estimation problem, with minor variations. As a result, it has been found that the optimization parameters produce very good results in wind speed distribution and potential calculations.

Makale detayları

Estimation of Weibull Probability Distribution Parameters with Optimization Algorithms and Foça Wind Data Application

Yazarlar:

Bayram Köse | İbrahim Işıklı | Mehmet Sagbas

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Wind Energy Systems | Renewable Energy Resources

Dergi:

Gazi University Journal of Science Vol.37 Issue 3, pp.1236-1254

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001319747

pISSN:

2147-1762

Weibull distribution parameters

Particle swarm optimization algorithm

Social group optimization algorithm

Sine cosine optimization algorithm

Bat algorithm

Sayı

Makale detayları

Estimation of Weibull Probability Distribution Parameters with Optimization Algorithms and Foça Wind Data Application

Yazarlar: Bayram Köse | İbrahim Işıklı | Mehmet Sagbas

Yayıncı: Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar: Wind Energy Systems | Renewable Energy Resources

Dergi: Gazi University Journal of Science Vol.37 Issue 3, pp.1236-1254

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 1/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001319747

pISSN: 2147-1762

Weibull distribution parameters

Particle swarm optimization algorithm

Social group optimization algorithm

Sine cosine optimization algorithm

Bat algorithm

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Bayram Köse | İbrahim Işıklı | Mehmet Sagbas

Yayıncı:

Gazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Wind Energy Systems | Renewable Energy Resources

Dergi:

Gazi University Journal of Science Vol.37 Issue 3, pp.1236-1254

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

1/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001319747

pISSN:

2147-1762