Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

Müjgan Deniz; Azad Heyderov

Makale detayları

Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

Yazarlar:

Müjgan Deniz | Azad Heyderov

Yayıncı:

Mustafa Süleyman ÖZCAN

Ana Başlıklar:

Doğal Kaynaklar Ekonomisi

Dergi:

İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.422-445

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001312824

pISSN:

2147-1185

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijans economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid 90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sectors dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the countrys economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijans economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

 General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijans economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid 90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sectors dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the countrys economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijans economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

 General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijans economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid 90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sectors dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the countrys economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijans economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

 Bu çalışmanın amacı genel itibariyle, petrol endüstrisinin küresel ekonomideki rolü ve özel olarak da Azerbaycan ekonomisinde değişen petrol fiyatlarının belirleyici etkisidir. Bu çalışmadaki temel amaç, ulualararası piyasalarda ham petrol fiyat değişimlerinin Azerbaycan ekonomisi üzerinde oluşturduğu etkilerinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu çalışma, Azerbaycanda petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin temel ekonomik değişkenleri nasıl etkilediğini ölçmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Başlangıçta petrol endüstrisine dair genel bir inceleme yapılarak, başlıca petrol ihracatçısı olan ülke ekonomileri analiz edilecektir. Ancak bu yazıda asıl odak noktası Azerbaycan ekonomisi olacak ve bir geçiş ekonomisi olarak Azerbaycan örneği incelenecektir. Petrol krizinden sonra, diğer geçiş ekonomilerindeki ülkelerde olduğu gibi ağırlıklı olarak petrol ve petrol ürünlerine bağımlı olan Azerbaycan ekonomisinin nasıl etkilendiğini grafikler ve tablolar yardımıyla gösterilecektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışmada, Azerbaycan İstatistik Verilerine göre VECM modeli oluşturulmuş ve petrol endüstrisine paralel olarak petrol fiyatlarının ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Kısaca, yapılan bu analiz neticesinde hangi değişkenlerin değişen fiyatlara daha duyarlı olduğunu anlaşılabilmektedir. Nihai olarak, petrole bağımlı ekonomilerde keskin fiyat değişimlerinin ekonominin geneli üzerindeki bozucu etkilerini dengelemek adına diğer sektörlerin ve bütüncül olarak Azerbaycan milli ekonomisinin geliştirilmesi için politika önerileri sunulacaktır.

Makale detayları

Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

Yazarlar:

Müjgan Deniz | Azad Heyderov

Yayıncı:

Mustafa Süleyman ÖZCAN

Ana Başlıklar:

Doğal Kaynaklar Ekonomisi

Dergi:

İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.422-445

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001312824

pISSN:

2147-1185

Oil Industry

Oil Prices

Transition Economy

Dutch disease

Azerbaijan EcoomyPetrol Endüstrisi

Petrol Fiyatları

Geçiş Ekonomileri

Azerbaycan

Hollanda Sendromu

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Müjgan Deniz | Azad Heyderov

Yayıncı: Mustafa Süleyman ÖZCAN

Ana Başlıklar: Doğal Kaynaklar Ekonomisi

Dergi: İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.422-445

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001312824

pISSN: 2147-1185

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Müjgan Deniz | Azad Heyderov

Yayıncı:

Mustafa Süleyman ÖZCAN

Ana Başlıklar:

Doğal Kaynaklar Ekonomisi

Dergi:

İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol.13 Issue 1, pp.422-445

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001312824

pISSN:

2147-1185