The Shaping of Foreign Direct Investments in Turkey by Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Parameters: Insights from the ARDL Perspective

Atilla Ünlü

Makale detayları

The Shaping of Foreign Direct Investments in Turkey by Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Parameters: Insights from the ARDL Perspective

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1323-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357031

pISSN:

2564-7504

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Foreign direct investments FDI have an important function in the process of supporting economic growth and development policies. With the acceleration of globalization since the 1990s, the volume of FDI in the world economy has started to increase, and this increase has been supported by factors such as economic integration, improvement of investment environments, and technological developments. However, there is no consensus on which factors are considered as anchors in the investment decisions of FDIs. The main reason for this uncertainty is that global conditions are constantly changing, and different factors come to the fore periodically. This study analyzes the effects of geopolitical risk and economic growth on foreign direct investment FDI in Turkey between 1985 and 2023. The stationarity properties of the series are determined by the ADF test, and then the short and long-run relationships between the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test. The results show that geopolitical risk has a negative effect on FDI, while economic growth has a positive effect. These findings suggest that reducing geopolitical risks and ensuring sustainable economic growth play a decisive role in attracting FDI.

 Foreign direct investments FDI have an important function in the process of supporting economic growth and development policies. With the acceleration of globalization since the 1990s, the volume of FDI in the world economy has started to increase, and this increase has been supported by factors such as economic integration, improvement of investment environments, and technological developments. However, there is no consensus on which factors are considered as anchors in the investment decisions of FDIs. The main reason for this uncertainty is that global conditions are constantly changing, and different factors come to the fore periodically. This study analyzes the effects of geopolitical risk and economic growth on foreign direct investment FDI in Turkey between 1985 and 2023. The stationarity properties of the series are determined by the ADF test, and then the short and long-run relationships between the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test. The results show that geopolitical risk has a negative effect on FDI, while economic growth has a positive effect. These findings suggest that reducing geopolitical risks and ensuring sustainable economic growth play a decisive role in attracting FDI.

 Foreign direct investments FDI have an important function in the process of supporting economic growth and development policies. With the acceleration of globalization since the 1990s, the volume of FDI in the world economy has started to increase, and this increase has been supported by factors such as economic integration, improvement of investment environments, and technological developments. However, there is no consensus on which factors are considered as anchors in the investment decisions of FDIs. The main reason for this uncertainty is that global conditions are constantly changing, and different factors come to the fore periodically. This study analyzes the effects of geopolitical risk and economic growth on foreign direct investment FDI in Turkey between 1985 and 2023. The stationarity properties of the series are determined by the ADF test, and then the short and long-run relationships between the variables are analyzed using the ARDL bounds test. The results show that geopolitical risk has a negative effect on FDI, while economic growth has a positive effect. These findings suggest that reducing geopolitical risks and ensuring sustainable economic growth play a decisive role in attracting FDI.

 Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar DYY, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma politikalarının desteklenmesi sürecinde önemli bir fonksiyona sahiptir. 1990lı yıllardan itibaren küreselleşmenin hız kazanmasıyla dünya ekonomisindeki DYY hacmi artmaya başlamıştır ve bu artış, ekonomik entegrasyon, yatırım ortamlarının iyileşmesi ve teknolojik gelişmeler gibi faktörlerle desteklemiştir. Ancak, DYYlerin yatırım kararlarında hangi faktörlerin birer çıpa olarak kabul etiklerine dair tam bir görüş birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu belirsizliğin temel nedeni küresel koşulların sürekli değişmesi ve dönemsel olarak farklı faktörlerin ön plana çıkmasından kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1985-2023 yılları arasında Türkiyedeki jeopolitik risk ve ekonomik büyümenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar DYY üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. ADF testi ile serilerin durağanlık özellikleri belirlenmiş, ardından ARDL sınır testi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda, jeopolitik riskin DYY üzerinde negatif, ekonomik büyümenin ise pozitif bir etki yarattığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgular, jeopolitik risklerin azaltılmasının ve sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin sağlanmasının, DYY çekiminde belirleyici bir rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Makale detayları

The Shaping of Foreign Direct Investments in Turkey by Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Parameters: Insights from the ARDL Perspective

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1323-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357031

pISSN:

2564-7504

Economic Growth

Foreign Direct Investment

Geopolitical RiskEkonomik Büyüme

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar

Jeopolitik Risk

Sayı

Makale detayları

The Shaping of Foreign Direct Investments in Turkey by Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Parameters: Insights from the ARDL Perspective

Yazarlar: Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler

Dergi: Fiscaoeconomia Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1323-1340

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 8/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001357031

pISSN: 2564-7504

Economic Growth

Foreign Direct Investment

Geopolitical RiskEkonomik Büyüme

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar

Jeopolitik Risk

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler

Dergi:

Fiscaoeconomia Vol.9 Issue 3, pp.1323-1340

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

8/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001357031

pISSN:

2564-7504