The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Geopolitical Risk Index on Defence Expenditures

Elif Efe; Üzeyir Aydın

Makale detayları

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Geopolitical Risk Index on Defence Expenditures

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 3, pp.692-707

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298134

pISSN:

2149-9047

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The size of the threats faced due to strategic and geopolitical reasons leads Turkey to sustain and increase its defence expenditures. This study investigates whether Turkeys defence expenditure is influenced by macroeconomic variables that impact the countrys economy and the geopolitical risk index. Among the selected macroeconomic indicators are inflation, economic growth, foreign trade balance, and unemployment variables. The impact of these selected indicators and the geopolitical risk index on defence expenditures is examined through the ARDL bounds testing approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The results of the ARDL bounds test indicate a statistically significant positive long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment with defence expenditures, while a statistically significant negative relationship is observed between foreign trade balance and economic growth with defence expenditures. The Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis reveals a statistically significant causal relationship from unemployment, economic growth, inflation, foreign trade balance, and the geopolitical risk index towards defence expenditures.

 The size of the threats faced due to strategic and geopolitical reasons leads Turkey to sustain and increase its defence expenditures. This study investigates whether Turkeys defence expenditure is influenced by macroeconomic variables that impact the countrys economy and the geopolitical risk index. Among the selected macroeconomic indicators are inflation, economic growth, foreign trade balance, and unemployment variables. The impact of these selected indicators and the geopolitical risk index on defence expenditures is examined through the ARDL bounds testing approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The results of the ARDL bounds test indicate a statistically significant positive long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment with defence expenditures, while a statistically significant negative relationship is observed between foreign trade balance and economic growth with defence expenditures. The Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis reveals a statistically significant causal relationship from unemployment, economic growth, inflation, foreign trade balance, and the geopolitical risk index towards defence expenditures.

 The size of the threats faced due to strategic and geopolitical reasons leads Turkey to sustain and increase its defence expenditures. This study investigates whether Turkeys defence expenditure is influenced by macroeconomic variables that impact the countrys economy and the geopolitical risk index. Among the selected macroeconomic indicators are inflation, economic growth, foreign trade balance, and unemployment variables. The impact of these selected indicators and the geopolitical risk index on defence expenditures is examined through the ARDL bounds testing approach and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The results of the ARDL bounds test indicate a statistically significant positive long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment with defence expenditures, while a statistically significant negative relationship is observed between foreign trade balance and economic growth with defence expenditures. The Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis reveals a statistically significant causal relationship from unemployment, economic growth, inflation, foreign trade balance, and the geopolitical risk index towards defence expenditures.

 Stratejik ve jeopolitik nedenlerle maruz kaldığı tehditlerin boyutu, Türkiyenin savunma harcamalarını arttırarak sürdürmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiyenin savunma harcamalarının ülke ekonomisine etki eden makroekonomik değişkenlerden ve jeopolitik risk endeksinden etkilenip etkilenmediği araştırılmıştır. Makroekonomik göstergelerden; enflasyon, ekonomik büyüme, dış ticaret dengesi ve işsizlik değişkenleri seçilmiştir. Seçili göstergelerin ve jeopolitik risk endeksinin savunma harcamalarına etkisi ARDL sınır testi ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analiziyle incelenmiştir. ARDL sınır testi sonuçları enflasyon ve işsizlikle savunma harcamaları arasında pozitif, dış ticaret dengesi ve ekonomik büyümeyle savunma harcamaları arasında negatif yönlü istatistiksel olarak anlamlı uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik ilişkisi sonuçlarına göre işsizlik, ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, dış ticaret dengesi ve jeopolitik risk endeksinden savunma harcamalarına doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

Makale detayları

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Geopolitical Risk Index on Defence Expenditures

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 3, pp.692-707

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298134

pISSN:

2149-9047

Defence Expenditures

Geopolitical Risk Index

Macroeconomic Indicators

ARDL Bounds Testin Approach

Toda-Yamamoto Causality AnalysisSavunma Harcamaları

Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi

Makroekonomik Göstergeler

ARDL Sınır Testi

Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı: Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Ana Başlıklar: Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 3, pp.692-707

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 4/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001298134

pISSN: 2149-9047

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Elif Efe | Üzeyir Aydın

Yayıncı:

Eskişehir Osmangazi University

Ana Başlıklar:

Büyüme | Enflasyon | İstihdam | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Vol.24 Issue 3, pp.692-707

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

4/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001298134

pISSN:

2149-9047