UNVEILING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON TURKISH ECONOMY AND FISCAL DYNAMICS

Süleyman Kasal

Makale detayları

UNVEILING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON TURKISH ECONOMY AND FISCAL DYNAMICS

Yazarlar:

Süleyman Kasal

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Vol.46 Issue 1, pp.221-232

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311957

pISSN:

2587-2672

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 This research aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiyes trade openness, household consumption, investment, government debt, and budget deficit for the quarters 2006:I2022:IV. There are no empirical studies in the literature that examine the relationship between geopolitical risks and Turkish fiscal policy. The vector autoregressive VAR approach is utilized to examine the relationships among the variables. Geopolitical risks contribute to a very serious increase in inflation in Türkiye. The increase in geopolitical risks negatively affects consumption and investment and increases budget deficits and government debt. Additionally, Türkiyes trade volume has also decreased as a result of rising geopolitical risks, according to the VAR models results. These findings demonstrate how vulnerable the Turkish economy is to geopolitical risks. Succinctly, Türkiyes public finances and economy are negatively impacted by geopolitical risks according to the analysiss findings. As a matter of fact, taking precautionary fiscal policy measures against geopolitical risks is important in eliminating the fiscal and economic losses that may arise. In this respect, this study has the potential to make a new contribution to the fiscal policy literature and to guide fiscal policy makers.

 This research aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiyes trade openness, household consumption, investment, government debt, and budget deficit for the quarters 2006:I2022:IV. There are no empirical studies in the literature that examine the relationship between geopolitical risks and Turkish fiscal policy. The vector autoregressive VAR approach is utilized to examine the relationships among the variables. Geopolitical risks contribute to a very serious increase in inflation in Türkiye. The increase in geopolitical risks negatively affects consumption and investment and increases budget deficits and government debt. Additionally, Türkiyes trade volume has also decreased as a result of rising geopolitical risks, according to the VAR models results. These findings demonstrate how vulnerable the Turkish economy is to geopolitical risks. Succinctly, Türkiyes public finances and economy are negatively impacted by geopolitical risks according to the analysiss findings. As a matter of fact, taking precautionary fiscal policy measures against geopolitical risks is important in eliminating the fiscal and economic losses that may arise. In this respect, this study has the potential to make a new contribution to the fiscal policy literature and to guide fiscal policy makers.

 This research aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiyes trade openness, household consumption, investment, government debt, and budget deficit for the quarters 2006:I2022:IV. There are no empirical studies in the literature that examine the relationship between geopolitical risks and Turkish fiscal policy. The vector autoregressive VAR approach is utilized to examine the relationships among the variables. Geopolitical risks contribute to a very serious increase in inflation in Türkiye. The increase in geopolitical risks negatively affects consumption and investment and increases budget deficits and government debt. Additionally, Türkiyes trade volume has also decreased as a result of rising geopolitical risks, according to the VAR models results. These findings demonstrate how vulnerable the Turkish economy is to geopolitical risks. Succinctly, Türkiyes public finances and economy are negatively impacted by geopolitical risks according to the analysiss findings. As a matter of fact, taking precautionary fiscal policy measures against geopolitical risks is important in eliminating the fiscal and economic losses that may arise. In this respect, this study has the potential to make a new contribution to the fiscal policy literature and to guide fiscal policy makers.

 Bu araştırma, jeopolitik risklerin Türkiyenin ticari açıklığı, hane halkı tüketimi, yatırımı, devlet borcu ve bütçe açığı üzerindeki etkisini 2006:I2022 çeyrekleri için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Literatürde jeopolitik riskler ile Türk maliye politikası arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen ampirik bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için vektör otoregresif VAR yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Jeopolitik riskler Türkiyede enflasyonun çok ciddi bir oranda yükselmesine katkıda bulunmaktadır. Jeopolitik risklerin artması tüketimi ve yatırımı olumsuz etkileyerek bütçe açıklarını ve devlet borçlarını artırmaktadır. Ayrıca VAR modeli sonuçlarına göre, artan jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle Türkiyenin ticaret hacmi de azalmaktadır. Bu bulgular Türkiye ekonomisinin jeopolitik risklere karşı ne kadar kırılgan olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kısacası analiz bulgularına göre Türkiyenin kamu maliyesi ve Türk ekonomisi jeopolitik risklerden olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Bu bulgu, Türkiyede jeopolitik risklerin politika oluşturma süreçlerine dahil edilmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Nitekim jeopolitik risklere karşı ihtiyati maliye politikası tedbirleri alınması ortaya çıkacak mali zararların giderilmesi bakımından önemlidir. Bu yönüyle bu çalışma maliye politikası literatürüne yeni bir katkı yapma ve maliye politikası yapıcılara yol gösterici olması bakımından bir potansiyeline sahiptir.

Makale detayları

UNVEILING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON TURKISH ECONOMY AND FISCAL DYNAMICS

Yazarlar:

Süleyman Kasal

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Vol.46 Issue 1, pp.221-232

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311957

pISSN:

2587-2672

Geopolitical risks

fiscal policy

business cycle

vector autoregression (VAR)Jeopolitik riskler

maliye politikası

konjonktürel dalgalanma

vektör otoregresyon (VAR)

Sayı

Makale detayları

Yazarlar: Süleyman Kasal

Yayıncı: Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar: Maliye Politikası

Dergi: Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Vol.46 Issue 1, pp.221-232

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2024

Belge Dili: İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.): 2001311957

pISSN: 2587-2672

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Süleyman Kasal

Yayıncı:

Marmara University

Ana Başlıklar:

Maliye Politikası

Dergi:

Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Vol.46 Issue 1, pp.221-232

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2024

Belge Dili:

İngilizce

Document ID (Org No.):

2001311957

pISSN:

2587-2672