ENERJİ (Petrol) FİYATLARI ve DÖVİZ KURUNUN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ, TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ: TODA-YAMAMOTO MODELİ ile AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2014-2022)

N.A.

Makale detayları

ENERJİ (Petrol) FİYATLARI ve DÖVİZ KURUNUN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ, TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ: TODA-YAMAMOTO MODELİ ile AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2014-2022)

Yazarlar:

N.A.

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Sakarya Üniversitesi İktisat Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286003

pISSN:

2147-0790

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Inflation, especially in developing countries, is a factor that reduces the purchasing power of the economy and causes impoverishment of the society if it cannot be controlled. In terms of Turkey, the phenomenon of inflation maintains its currency. The high inflation rates in recent years have brought about excessive increases in commodity prices. The phenomenon that triggered inflation in Turkey, especially in this last period, has had a great impact on energy prices and the increase in exchange rates. It is known that the Turkish economy is sensitive to the exchange rate. One of the important factors triggering this structure is the high current account deficit. In particular, its dependence on foreign energy has caused the increase in energy prices to be reflected in production as a cost. In this study, which we support with an empirical study, a causal research between producer price index, oil prices, ONS and USD is included. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was used by using the VAR model in the series in which Unit Root analysis was performed. According to the empirical result, it is understood that oil prices and USD have a one-way causal effect on the producer price index.

 Inflation, especially in developing countries, is a factor that reduces the purchasing power of the economy and causes impoverishment of the society if it cannot be controlled. In terms of Turkey, the phenomenon of inflation maintains its currency. The high inflation rates in recent years have brought about excessive increases in commodity prices. The phenomenon that triggered inflation in Turkey, especially in this last period, has had a great impact on energy prices and the increase in exchange rates. It is known that the Turkish economy is sensitive to the exchange rate. One of the important factors triggering this structure is the high current account deficit. In particular, its dependence on foreign energy has caused the increase in energy prices to be reflected in production as a cost. In this study, which we support with an empirical study, a causal research between producer price index, oil prices, ONS and USD is included. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was used by using the VAR model in the series in which Unit Root analysis was performed. According to the empirical result, it is understood that oil prices and USD have a one-way causal effect on the producer price index.

 Inflation, especially in developing countries, is a factor that reduces the purchasing power of the economy and causes impoverishment of the society if it cannot be controlled. In terms of Turkey, the phenomenon of inflation maintains its currency. The high inflation rates in recent years have brought about excessive increases in commodity prices. The phenomenon that triggered inflation in Turkey, especially in this last period, has had a great impact on energy prices and the increase in exchange rates. It is known that the Turkish economy is sensitive to the exchange rate. One of the important factors triggering this structure is the high current account deficit. In particular, its dependence on foreign energy has caused the increase in energy prices to be reflected in production as a cost. In this study, which we support with an empirical study, a causal research between producer price index, oil prices, ONS and USD is included. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was used by using the VAR model in the series in which Unit Root analysis was performed. According to the empirical result, it is understood that oil prices and USD have a one-way causal effect on the producer price index.

 Enflasyon özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik anlamda alım gücünü düşüren ve kontrol edilemediği taktirde toplumun fakirleşmesine neden olan bir faktördür. Türkiye açısından da enflasyon olgusu güncelliğini korumaktadır. Son yıllarda yüksek seyreden enflasyon oranları emtia fiyatlarında aşırı artışları beraberinde getirmiştir. Türkiyede özellikle bu son dönemde enflasyonu tetikleyen olgu, enerji fiyatları ve döviz kurundaki artışın etkisi büyük olmuştur. Türkiye ekonomisi döviz kuruna karşı hassas bir yapıya sahip olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu yapıyı tetikleyen önemli faktörlerden bir tanesi de cari açığının fazla olmasıdır. Özellikle enerjide dışa bağımlı olması, enerji fiyatlarındaki artışın üretime maliyet olarak yansımasına neden olmuştur. Bir ampirik çalışma ile desteklediğimiz bu çalışmada üretici fiyat endeksi, petrol fiyatları, ONS ve USD arasında nedensel bir araştırmaya yer verilmiştir. Birim Kök analizi yapılan serilerde VAR modeli kullanılarak Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizine yer verilmiştir. Ampirik sonuca göre petrol fiyatları ve USDnin üretici fiyat endeksi üzerinde tek yönlü bir nedensel etkiye sahip olduğu anlaşılmıştır.

Makale detayları

ENERJİ (Petrol) FİYATLARI ve DÖVİZ KURUNUN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ, TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ: TODA-YAMAMOTO MODELİ ile AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2014-2022)

Yazarlar:

N.A.

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Sakarya Üniversitesi İktisat Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286003

pISSN:

2147-0790

Inflation

ADF

VAR end Toda-Yamamoto

Enflasyon

birim kök

VAR ve Toda-Yamamoto

Sayı

Makale detayları

ENERJİ (Petrol) FİYATLARI ve DÖVİZ KURUNUN ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ, TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ: TODA-YAMAMOTO MODELİ ile AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2014-2022)

Yazarlar: N.A.

Yayıncı: Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonomi

Dergi: Sakarya Üniversitesi İktisat Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 3/2023

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001286003

pISSN: 2147-0790

Inflation

ADF

VAR end Toda-Yamamoto

Enflasyon

birim kök

VAR ve Toda-Yamamoto

Sayı

Yazarlar:

N.A.

Yayıncı:

Sakarya University

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonomi

Dergi:

Sakarya Üniversitesi İktisat Dergisi Vol.12 Issue 1, pp.1-14

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

3/2023

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001286003

pISSN:

2147-0790