CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBAN POPULATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL, CHINA, INDIA, AND TURKEY

Atilla Ünlü

Makale detayları

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBAN POPULATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL, CHINA, INDIA, AND TURKEY

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.571-583

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350865

pISSN:

2587-2567

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 The increase in global trade volume under the influence of neoliberal economic policies has strengthened the dynamics of energy and urbanization, and the interaction between these three factors has played an important role in shaping global development strategies. This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, urban population, and economic growth over the period 1974-2023 for Brazil, China, India, and Turkey. In this context, the stationarity of the series with ADF unit root test, cointegration relationship with ARDL bounds test, causality relations with Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and long-run relationships between variables with parameter estimation method are analyzed. In the causality test, it is found that there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP and energy in Brazil; in India, GDP has a causal effect on energy, but there is no relationship with urbanization; in China, GDP has a causal effect on both energy and urbanization, but energy does not create a causal relationship on urbanization and GDP; in Turkey, there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and urbanization towards energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP. Parameter estimation results show that the contribution of energy to GDP is higher than the level of urbanization in all countries.

 The increase in global trade volume under the influence of neoliberal economic policies has strengthened the dynamics of energy and urbanization, and the interaction between these three factors has played an important role in shaping global development strategies. This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, urban population, and economic growth over the period 1974-2023 for Brazil, China, India, and Turkey. In this context, the stationarity of the series with ADF unit root test, cointegration relationship with ARDL bounds test, causality relations with Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and long-run relationships between variables with parameter estimation method are analyzed. In the causality test, it is found that there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP and energy in Brazil; in India, GDP has a causal effect on energy, but there is no relationship with urbanization; in China, GDP has a causal effect on both energy and urbanization, but energy does not create a causal relationship on urbanization and GDP; in Turkey, there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and urbanization towards energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP. Parameter estimation results show that the contribution of energy to GDP is higher than the level of urbanization in all countries.

 The increase in global trade volume under the influence of neoliberal economic policies has strengthened the dynamics of energy and urbanization, and the interaction between these three factors has played an important role in shaping global development strategies. This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, urban population, and economic growth over the period 1974-2023 for Brazil, China, India, and Turkey. In this context, the stationarity of the series with ADF unit root test, cointegration relationship with ARDL bounds test, causality relations with Toda-Yamamoto causality test, and long-run relationships between variables with parameter estimation method are analyzed. In the causality test, it is found that there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP and energy in Brazil; in India, GDP has a causal effect on energy, but there is no relationship with urbanization; in China, GDP has a causal effect on both energy and urbanization, but energy does not create a causal relationship on urbanization and GDP; in Turkey, there is a unidirectional causality relationship between GDP and urbanization towards energy and a bidirectional causality relationship between urbanization and GDP. Parameter estimation results show that the contribution of energy to GDP is higher than the level of urbanization in all countries.

 Neoliberal iktisat politikalarının etkisiyle küresel ticaret hacminin artması, enerji ve kentleşme dinamiklerini güçlendirmiş ve bu üç faktör arasındaki etkileşim, küresel kalkınma stratejilerinin şekillenmesinde önemli bir rol oynamıştır. Bu çalışma, 1974-2023 döneminde Brezilya, Çin, Hindistan ve Türkiye örnekleri üzerinden enerji tüketimi, kentsel nüfus ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, ADF birim kök testi ile serilerin durağanlık durumu, ARDL sınır testi ile eşbütünleşme ilişkisi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile nedensellik ilişkileri ve parametre tahmin yöntemiyle değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler çözümlenmiştir. Nedensellik testinde, Brezilyada GSYİHnin enerji üzerinde tek yönlü, kentleşme ile GSYİH ve enerji arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu; Hindistanda GSYİHnin enerji üzerinde nedensel etkisi olduğu, ancak kentleşme ile bir ilişki bulunmadığı; Çinde GSYİHnin hem enerjiye hem de kentleşmeye nedensel etkisi olduğu, ancak enerjinin kentleşme ve GSYİH üzerinde nedensellik ilişkisi oluşturmadığı; Türkiyede GSYİH ve kentleşmeden enerji doğru tek yönlü, kentleşme ve GSYİH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Parametre tahmin sonuçları, tüm ülkelerde enerjinin GSYHye katkısının kentleşme düzeyinden daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir.

Makale detayları

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBAN POPULATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL, CHINA, INDIA, AND TURKEY

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.571-583

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350865

pISSN:

2587-2567

Economic Growth

Energy Consumption

Urbanization.Ekonomik Büyüme

Enerji Tüketimi

Kentleşme.

Sayı

Makale detayları

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, URBAN POPULATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL, CHINA, INDIA, AND TURKEY

Yazarlar: Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı: Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar: Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi: Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.571-583

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 6/2025

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001350865

pISSN: 2587-2567

Economic Growth

Energy Consumption

Urbanization.Ekonomik Büyüme

Enerji Tüketimi

Kentleşme.

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Atilla Ünlü

Yayıncı:

Ahmet Arif EREN

Ana Başlıklar:

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler | Makro İktisat (Diğer)

Dergi:

Politik Ekonomik Kuram Vol.9 Issue 2, pp.571-583

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

6/2025

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001350865

pISSN:

2587-2567