AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Gizem Varol; Mustafa Torun; Gökhan Sönmezler

Makale detayları

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Yazarlar:

Gizem Varol | Mustafa Torun | Gökhan Sönmezler

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2577-2600

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329576

pISSN:

1304-5318

Anahtar kelimeler:

Özet:

 Credit dollarization is defined as the ratio of foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans and has become a significant issue, particularly in developing countries, in the context of managing exchange rate risk. This study investigates the determinants of credit dollarization in Turkey, using data from the period 2011:06 to 2023:10, and applies the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for the analysis. The relationships between credit dollarization, deposit dollarization, the producer price index PPI, Turkish lira TL commercial loan interest rates, and the US dollar exchange rate were examined. The findings reveal that credit dollarization is largely driven by the balance between foreign currency deposits collected by banks and the loans they provide. However, it was observed that banks are unable to fully manage exchange rate risk, as they cannot entirely convert the foreign currency deposits they collect into foreign currency loans. This leaves some banks vulnerable to fluctuations in the exchange rate. While the increase in PPI was found to reduce credit dollarization by raising the cost of TL-denominated loans, high TL commercial loan interest rates incentivize firms to turn to foreign currency loans. Moreover, increases in the US dollar exchange rate contribute to higher levels of credit dollarization. These findings are consistent with the literature and demonstrate that credit dollarization in Turkey is shaped by the mismatches in banks deposit-loan structures, as well as the effects of exchange rate volatility and domestic interest rates. The study concludes that policies aimed at reducing credit dollarization should prioritize stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations and managing interest rates. In particular, encouraging the use of exchange rate risk management instruments and implementing more comprehensive regulatory frameworks could enhance banks capacity to manage exchange rate risks more effectively. Therefore, closely monitoring the impacts of deposit dollarization and taking measures to reduce exchange rate volatility have become critical priorities for policymakers.

 Credit dollarization is defined as the ratio of foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans and has become a significant issue, particularly in developing countries, in the context of managing exchange rate risk. This study investigates the determinants of credit dollarization in Turkey, using data from the period 2011:06 to 2023:10, and applies the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for the analysis. The relationships between credit dollarization, deposit dollarization, the producer price index PPI, Turkish lira TL commercial loan interest rates, and the US dollar exchange rate were examined. The findings reveal that credit dollarization is largely driven by the balance between foreign currency deposits collected by banks and the loans they provide. However, it was observed that banks are unable to fully manage exchange rate risk, as they cannot entirely convert the foreign currency deposits they collect into foreign currency loans. This leaves some banks vulnerable to fluctuations in the exchange rate. While the increase in PPI was found to reduce credit dollarization by raising the cost of TL-denominated loans, high TL commercial loan interest rates incentivize firms to turn to foreign currency loans. Moreover, increases in the US dollar exchange rate contribute to higher levels of credit dollarization. These findings are consistent with the literature and demonstrate that credit dollarization in Turkey is shaped by the mismatches in banks deposit-loan structures, as well as the effects of exchange rate volatility and domestic interest rates. The study concludes that policies aimed at reducing credit dollarization should prioritize stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations and managing interest rates. In particular, encouraging the use of exchange rate risk management instruments and implementing more comprehensive regulatory frameworks could enhance banks capacity to manage exchange rate risks more effectively. Therefore, closely monitoring the impacts of deposit dollarization and taking measures to reduce exchange rate volatility have become critical priorities for policymakers.

 Credit dollarization is defined as the ratio of foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans and has become a significant issue, particularly in developing countries, in the context of managing exchange rate risk. This study investigates the determinants of credit dollarization in Turkey, using data from the period 2011:06 to 2023:10, and applies the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for the analysis. The relationships between credit dollarization, deposit dollarization, the producer price index PPI, Turkish lira TL commercial loan interest rates, and the US dollar exchange rate were examined. The findings reveal that credit dollarization is largely driven by the balance between foreign currency deposits collected by banks and the loans they provide. However, it was observed that banks are unable to fully manage exchange rate risk, as they cannot entirely convert the foreign currency deposits they collect into foreign currency loans. This leaves some banks vulnerable to fluctuations in the exchange rate. While the increase in PPI was found to reduce credit dollarization by raising the cost of TL-denominated loans, high TL commercial loan interest rates incentivize firms to turn to foreign currency loans. Moreover, increases in the US dollar exchange rate contribute to higher levels of credit dollarization. These findings are consistent with the literature and demonstrate that credit dollarization in Turkey is shaped by the mismatches in banks deposit-loan structures, as well as the effects of exchange rate volatility and domestic interest rates. The study concludes that policies aimed at reducing credit dollarization should prioritize stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations and managing interest rates. In particular, encouraging the use of exchange rate risk management instruments and implementing more comprehensive regulatory frameworks could enhance banks capacity to manage exchange rate risks more effectively. Therefore, closely monitoring the impacts of deposit dollarization and taking measures to reduce exchange rate volatility have become critical priorities for policymakers.

 Kredi dolarizasyonu, yabancı para cinsinden kullanılan kredilerin toplam kredilere oranı olarak tanımlanmakta ve özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde döviz kuru riskinin yönetimi açısından önemli bir konu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Türkiyede kredi dolarizasyonunun belirleyicilerini inceleyen bu çalışma, 2011:06-2023:10 dönemine ait verilerle gerçekleştirilmiş ve ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada, kredi dolarizasyonu ile mevduat dolarizasyonu, üretici fiyat endeksi ÜFE, TL ticari kredi faizi ve ABD Dolar kuru arasındaki ilişkiler ele alınmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, kredi dolarizasyonunun büyük ölçüde bankaların topladığı yabancı para cinsinden mevduatlar ile verdikleri krediler arasındaki dengeye dayandığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak, bankaların döviz riskini tamamen yönetemedikleri ve topladıkları yabancı para mevduatlarını tam anlamıyla kredilere dönüştüremedikleri tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, bankaların bir bölümünün döviz kuru dalgalanmalarına karşı savunmasız kalmasına neden olmaktadır. ÜFE artışının TL cinsinden kredilerin maliyetini yükselterek kredi dolarizasyonunu azalttığı, buna karşılık yüksek TL ticari kredi faizlerinin firmaları döviz kredilerine yönlendirdiği, ayrıca, ABD Dolar kurundaki artışların kredi dolarizasyonunu artırdığı görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlar literatürdeki bulgularla uyumlu olup, Türkiyedeki kredi dolarizasyonunun, bankaların mevduat ve kredi eşleştirmesindeki dengesizliklerin yanı sıra döviz kuru hareketliliği ve iç piyasalardaki faiz oranlarının etkisi altında şekillendiğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiyede kredi dolarizasyonunu azaltmaya yönelik politikaların döviz kuru dalgalanmalarını ve faiz oranlarını dengeleme üzerinde yoğunlaşması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle bankaların döviz riskini daha etkin yönetebilmeleri için kur riski yönetim araçlarının kullanımının teşvik edilmesi ve bu alanda daha kapsamlı politika düzenlemelerinin yapılması önerilmektedir. Bu nedenle, mevduat dolarizasyonunun etkilerinin yakından izlenmesi ve ilgili politika yapıcıların döviz kurlarındaki oynaklıkları azaltmaya yönelik adımlar atması kritik bir gereklilik haline gelmektedir.

Makale detayları

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Yazarlar:

Gizem Varol | Mustafa Torun | Gökhan Sönmezler

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2577-2600

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329576

pISSN:

1304-5318

Credit dollarization

Deposit dollarization

ARDL bound test approach

Turkish economyARDL sınır testi Yaklaşımı

Kredi dolarizasyonu

Mevduat dolarizayonu

Sayı

Makale detayları

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT DOLLARIZATION IN TURKEY

Yazarlar: Gizem Varol | Mustafa Torun | Gökhan Sönmezler

Yayıncı: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar: Para Politikası

Dergi: Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2577-2600

Belge Tipi: Makale

Yayın Tarihi: 10/2024

Belge Dili: Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.): 2001329576

pISSN: 1304-5318

Credit dollarization

Deposit dollarization

ARDL bound test approach

Turkish economyARDL sınır testi Yaklaşımı

Kredi dolarizasyonu

Mevduat dolarizayonu

Sayı

Yazarlar:

Gizem Varol | Mustafa Torun | Gökhan Sönmezler

Yayıncı:

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University

Ana Başlıklar:

Para Politikası

Dergi:

Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi Vol.22 Issue 54, pp.2577-2600

Belge Tipi:

Makale

Yayın Tarihi:

10/2024

Belge Dili:

Türkçe

Document ID (Org No.):

2001329576

pISSN:

1304-5318